Ranking the Teams in the 2025 College Football Playoff Race

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day leads his team to the tunnel before the game against Grambling State Tigers at the Ohio Stadium on Saturday Sept 6 2025 in Columbus Ohio

As we hit the early stages of the 2025 college football season—specifically after Week 2—the landscape for the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) is starting to take shape. With powerhouse conferences like the Big Ten and SEC dominating the headlines, and upsets already shaking up the rankings, it’s time to categorize the top contenders based on their current trajectories. Drawing from the latest AP Top 25 rankings, expert projections, and bubble analyses, we’ll group teams into four tiers: those with an excellent chance (front-runners poised for automatic bids or high seeds), good chance (strong contenders likely in with a few key wins), those that will need help (bubble teams requiring upsets or favorable results elsewhere), and long shots (underdogs with a path but low probability). Teams with virtually no realistic shot, such as most unranked squads or those already saddled with multiple losses in weak conferences, are omitted.

This assessment factors in current records (most top teams are 2-0), strength of schedule, conference standings, and predictive models like ESPN’s bubble watch and USA Today’s bowl projections. Remember, it’s early—plenty can change with rivalry games and conference play looming—but here’s how the field stacks up right now.

Excellent Chance: The Elite Favorites

These teams are undefeated, hold top spots in the AP poll, and feature in nearly every expert’s projected CFP bracket. They boast dominant performances so far, elite talent, and schedules that position them for conference titles or at-large bids. Barring major collapses, they’re locks for the playoff, with many eyeing first-round byes as top-four seeds.

Ohio State (2-0, AP No. 1, Big Ten): The Buckeyes have looked unstoppable, dismantling Texas in a marquee matchup. With a loaded roster and favorable Big Ten path, they’re the consensus favorite for the conference crown and a national title contender.
Penn State (2-0, AP No. 2, Big Ten): Explosive offense and stout defense make the Nittany Lions a force. Their only real threats are Ohio State and Oregon, but projections have them as a top seed.
LSU (2-0, AP No. 3, SEC): Brian Kelly’s squad has impressed with high-scoring wins. As a projected SEC powerhouse, they’re in the mix for a bye, though Ole Miss looms large.
Oregon (2-0, AP No. 4, Big Ten): Defending Big Ten champs continue to roll. Dante Moore at QB and a dynamic attack position them for another deep run.
Miami (Fla.) (2-0, AP No. 5, ACC): Carson Beck’s arrival has maintained the Hurricanes as top ACC favorites. Their outlasting of Notre Dame highlights their resilience.
Georgia (2-0, AP No. 6, SEC): Always a threat under Kirby Smart, the Bulldogs’ defense is elite. They’re projected as SEC champs in many models.

These six dominate ESPN’s “Would be in” projections and have over 80% implied odds in analytics like the Allstate Playoff Predictor (preseason baselines adjusted for early results).

Sep 6 2025 Austin Texas USA Texas Longhorns wide receiver DeAndre Moore Jr 0 leads players on to the field before the game against the San Jose State Spartans at Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium Mandatory Credit Scott Wachter Imagn Images

Good Chance: Solid Contenders in Striking Distance

This tier includes ranked teams with strong starts but perhaps a tougher remaining slate or less margin for error. They’re frequently in projected fields but might need to avoid slip-ups to secure at-large spots or lower seeds.

Texas (1-1, AP No. 7, SEC): A loss to Ohio State hurts, but the Longhorns’ talent (led by Arch Manning) keeps them in play. Wins over SEC foes could vault them back up.
Notre Dame (1-1, Independent, AP No. 8): A narrow loss to Miami doesn’t derail their at-large hopes. As an independent, consistent dominance is key.
Illinois (2-0, AP No. 9, Big Ten): Rising fast after impressive wins, Bret Bielema’s squad is bubble-topping in USA Today’s projections.
Florida State (2-0, AP No. 10, ACC): Upsetting Alabama catapults them into contention. Their defense looks playoff-caliber.
South Carolina (2-0, AP No. 11, SEC): Early surprises position them well in a loaded SEC.
Tennessee (2-0, AP No. 15, SEC): Joey Aquilar’s Vols have offensive firepower and a 51% playoff chance per ESPN metrics.

These teams appear in most expert picks (e.g., ESPN staff projections) and could easily climb into byes with statement victories.

Those That Will Need Help: Bubble Teams Requiring Boosts

owa State Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht 3 runs with the ball against Iowa during the second quarter in the Cy Hawk Series at Jack Trice Stadium on Sept 6 2025 in Ames Iowa

Here are the squads on the fringe—ranked but with flaws like early losses, tough schedules, or conference competition. They’ll need signature wins, help from upsets elsewhere, or to run the table to sneak in as at-large bids or lower-seeded conference champs.

Clemson (1-1, AP No. 12, ACC): Falling after a shaky start, but Dabo Swinney’s track record keeps hope alive. They need to dominate the ACC.
Oklahoma (2-0, AP No. 13, SEC): Knocking off Michigan is huge, but USA Today notes tougher SEC tests await before anointing them playoff-worthy.
Iowa State (2-0, AP No. 14, Big 12): Projected Big 12 champs in many brackets, but the conference’s depth means they can’t afford losses.
Texas A&M (2-0, AP No. 16, SEC): Mike Elko’s rebuild is ahead of schedule, but SEC chaos could push them out.
Ole Miss (2-0, AP No. 17, SEC): Lane Kiffin’s high-powered offense needs to beat LSU to solidify.
Alabama (1-1, AP No. 19, SEC): A stunning loss to Florida State drops them, but ESPN’s FPI still projects wins in most games except Georgia.
Utah (2-0, AP No. 20, Big 12): Cam Rising’s return helps, but Big 12 parity requires perfection.
Texas Tech (2-0, AP No. 21, Big 12): Sneaky good, but they’ll need upsets over Big 12 elites.
Indiana (2-0, AP No. 22, Big Ten): Curt Cignetti’s transfers shine, but Big Ten giants loom.
Michigan (1-1, AP No. 23, Big Ten): Loss to Oklahoma stings the defending champs; recovery needed.
Auburn (2-0, AP No. 24, SEC): Early momentum, but SEC gauntlet awaits.
Missouri (2-0, AP No. 25, SEC): The Tigers have looked good early against soft competition and have a favorable SEC schedule.

There’s a much larger group of teams in a “Work to do” category, featuring teams like USC, Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, and SMU—all are unranked, but they’re close enough for inclusion if they surge.

Group Of Five Contenders

Sep 6 2025 Gainesville Florida USA South Florida Bulls place kicker Nico Gramatica 7 South Florida Bulls long snapper Turner McLaughlin 48 and teammates celebrate after a game against the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Mandatory Credit Matt Pendleton Imagn Images

No Group of Five team has separated itself early like Boise State did. These teams’ odds are all under 20% in most models, and it will be chaotic until the end.

South Florida (2-0, AP No. 18, American): Beating two ranked foes impresses, but USA Today says they need to win the American title over Memphis and Tulane.
Tulane (2-0, American): Strong G5 contender; a conference win could earn the auto-bid.
Memphis (2-0, American): Offensive explosion makes them a threat for the G5 spot.
UNLV (2-0, Mountain West): Barry Odom’s squad has buzz; MWC title would help.
Navy (2-0, American): Service academy surprise potential.

The 2025 CFP race is wide open, with the SEC boasting a record 11 ranked teams and the Big Ten close behind. Key upcoming games—like LSU at Ole Miss or Penn State vs. Oregon—will reshape these tiers. Stay tuned to EasySportz as the season unfolds; one upset could flip everything.