It does not get much bigger than this.
No. 2 Georgia travels to Tuscaloosa Saturday night to face No. 6 Alabama in a 7:30 p.m. kickoff at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Both teams enter 5-0 and 3-0 in SEC play, making this one of the biggest games of the college football season.
Georgia absolutely has a path to winning this game. The Bulldogs have the more experienced quarterback in Gunner Stockton, an elite rushing attack and a defense allowing just 13.4 points per game. Stockton has completed 75.5% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and only one interception.
But there is one major concern: Can Georgia’s defense get enough stops?
Keelon Russell has been on fire. He has thrown for 1,414 yards with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions while adding another four touchdowns on the ground. Alabama just went into Starkville and dropped 56 points on Mississippi State, with Russell throwing for 285 yards and three touchdowns.
Georgia’s defense has been good statistically, but it hasn’t faced anything quite like this Alabama offense. The Bulldogs showed some cracks against Vanderbilt, allowing 293 yards and struggling to consistently get off the field on third down before tightening things up in the second half.
Against Russell, those mistakes could become touchdowns.
Georgia’s best chance is to run the football, control possession and keep Russell standing on the Alabama sideline. Nate Frazier and the Bulldogs’ offensive line can absolutely have success, and Stockton’s efficiency gives Georgia another way to move the football if Alabama loads the box.
The problem is that Alabama can counter by bringing pressure and trusting its secondary. Kirby Smart called Alabama’s defensive backs talented, physical “ball hawks” and specifically pointed to the pressure created by the Crimson Tide’s front.
And then there is Bryant-Denny Stadium.
This game being in Tuscaloosa matters. Georgia will be dealing with one of the loudest environments in college football against an Alabama team playing with a ton of confidence. Even the betting market has shifted toward the Crimson Tide, with Alabama currently sitting around a 1.5-point favorite after Georgia initially opened as the favorite.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Georgia 27
I trust Georgia to move the football. I trust Stockton’s experience, and I think the Bulldogs can establish the run.
I just don’t trust Georgia to get enough stops.
Russell’s ability to create outside structure is the difference. Georgia can defend the play perfectly and still watch Russell escape the pocket and turn it into an explosive gain. Add the home-field advantage, Alabama’s veteran secondary and the Tide’s ability to pressure Stockton, and the matchup starts leaning toward Bama.
Georgia hangs around, but eventually Russell makes too many plays.
Alabama 38, Georgia 27.
