ATLANTA — For much of the last month, it felt like everything that could go wrong for the Atlanta Braves did.
The losses piled up. Key players landed on the injured list. The offense disappeared for stretches. The rotation was forced to shuffle pieces around. A team that looked capable of chasing 100 wins suddenly found itself simply trying to survive until the All-Star break.
And yet, the Braves enter the second half at 55-40, only five games behind the National League-leading Dodgers and firmly in the playoff picture.
That fact alone should provide optimism.
The Braves’ recent struggles have been well documented. After sitting at 45-21 in early June, Atlanta went just 10-19 over its next 29 games. The slide dropped them from the top tier of the National League standings and allowed the Brewers and Dodgers to create separation.
But context matters.
No contender has been hit harder by injuries than Atlanta.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has appeared in only 53 games. Spencer Strider has made just eight starts. Drake Baldwin has missed 23 games. Sean Murphy has appeared in four. Several other contributors have missed significant time throughout the season, forcing manager Walt Weiss to constantly adjust lineups and pitching plans.
Even with all of those absences, Atlanta still owns one of the league’s strongest statistical profiles.
The Braves have scored 460 runs, fourth-most in the National League, while allowing only 368, resulting in a +92 run differential that ranks among baseball’s elite. Teams with a run differential that strong rarely stay down for long.
There are also signs that the offense is better than its recent results.
Matt Olson has delivered another All-Star caliber season with 25 home runs, 58 RBIs and an .873 OPS. Michael Harris II is batting .296 with 16 homers and continues to look like one of the club’s most complete players. Ozzie Albies has added 14 home runs and 51 RBIs, while Acuña has still managed a .373 on-base percentage despite missing nearly half the season.
The biggest issue has been getting enough players performing at their expected level simultaneously.
Austin Riley’s .207 average and .618 OPS are far below his career standards. Acuña has yet to fully settle into a rhythm this season with his injuries. The lineup has often been missing multiple regulars on any given night.
History suggests those numbers are more likely to improve than worsen.
The pitching staff tells a similar story.
Chris Sale has once again looked like an ace, posting a 2.20 ERA with 117 strikeouts in 98 innings. Raisel Iglesias has converted 19 saves with a 2.23 ERA. Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez and much of the bullpen have been excellent.
Strider’s 5.31 ERA jumps off the page, but he has thrown only 39 innings after missing significant time. Atlanta is betting that a healthier and more settled Strider can resemble the dominant pitcher who once overwhelmed hitters across the league.
That may ultimately be the biggest storyline of the second half.
If Strider returns to form, Acuña can get back on the field healthy, and if Atlanta can get some consistency, the Braves suddenly look much more like the team that started 45-21 than the one that stumbled through June and early July.
The Dodgers remain the favorites in the National League, and Milwaukee has proven it is a legitimate contender. But Atlanta has something those teams fear: championship experience and star power.
The first half exposed the Braves’ vulnerabilities. The second half could remind everyone why they entered the season as one of baseball’s most dangerous teams.
At 55-40, this season is far from slipping away. In many ways, Atlanta’s real season may just be beginning.
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