Ohio State looked explosive last weekend. Iowa just pulled off one of the biggest wins of the young season.
Now the Buckeyes have to walk into Kinnick Stadium against an undefeated Iowa team with College GameDay in town for the first time since 2006.
This has trap game written all over it.
Ohio State is coming off a 42-19 win over Illinois in which Julian Sayin threw for 367 yards and four touchdowns, while Jeremiah Smith exploded for 217 yards and four scores. Smith is playing like one of the best players in America right now, and stopping him will be Iowa’s biggest challenge.
But Iowa isn’t going to make this easy.
The Hawkeyes are 4-0 after going into Michigan Stadium and stunning the Wolverines 20-19 on a 91-yard game-winning drive, capped by Hank Brown finding Reece Vander Zee for the winning touchdown as time expired.
How Ohio State Wins
Get Jeremiah Smith involved early.
Iowa wants to turn this into an ugly, physical Big Ten game where every possession matters. Ohio State can’t allow that style to completely dictate the afternoon. Sayin needs to hit a few explosive plays and force Iowa to actually chase points.
The Buckeyes also need a much better defensive performance. Illinois finished with 462 total yards last week, including 199 on the ground. If Ohio State gives Iowa the same opportunities, the Hawkeyes can shorten the game and put serious pressure on the Buckeyes late.
How Iowa Wins
Make Ohio State uncomfortable.
Kinnick Stadium is going to be insane, and Iowa needs to lean into exactly what it does best: defense, field position, physical football and limiting explosive plays.
If the Hawkeyes can keep Smith from completely taking over and force Sayin to consistently execute long drives, this becomes a very different game.
And we’ve already seen Ohio State struggle on the road this season with its loss at Texas. Iowa would love nothing more than to make this another frustrating afternoon away from Columbus.
Prediction
I think Ohio State gets everything it can handle.
Iowa’s defense slows down the Buckeyes, the crowd makes a legitimate impact and this turns into a fourth-quarter fight. Smith still makes a couple of huge plays, but don’t expect another 40-point explosion from Ohio State.
Iowa gets the football late with an opportunity to win, but the Buckeyes’ defense finally comes up with the stop it needs.
Ohio State survives Kinnick — barely.
Prediction: Ohio State 21, Iowa 17
