Last year, the Indianapolis 500 qualifying storyline belonged to Robert Shwartzman and PREMA Racing in one of the biggest stunners Indy has seen in years. Nobody expected the newcomer team to jump to the front and shock the paddock.
But typically, Indianapolis pole day turns into a parade for Team Penske.
That is why heading into this year’s qualifying, the favorites feel pretty clear — the “three P’s”: Penske, Álex Palou or Pato O’Ward.
Penske always arrives with raw speed at Indianapolis. The organization treats qualifying like its own championship, and few teams understand how to trim out a car for four laps better than Roger Penske’s group. If a Penske driver ends up on pole, nobody will bat an eye. Well, until last year’s shenanigans took place of course.
Then there is Palou, who won last year’s Indy 500 and has quietly been one of the fastest drivers at the Speedway for several seasons now. His balance between aggression and consistency makes him dangerous over a four-lap run, especially when conditions get tricky.
And honestly, it feels like O’Ward is overdue for a defining Indy moment. He has been close so many times at Indianapolis and always seems to have speed when it matters most. If Arrow McLaren unloads with qualifying pace, O’Ward absolutely has the talent to put it on the pole.
If you want the fun outside longshot, though, keep an eye on Conor Daly.
The Indiana native knows how much this race means to the local crowd, and he has shown legitimate speed at Indianapolis before. Pole would still qualify as a surprise, but not a completely impossible one if conditions line up and the car hits the setup window perfectly.
Still, if someone outside of Penske, Palou or Pato wins the pole this year, it would be a genuine shock. Indianapolis qualifying usually reveals who the true heavyweights are — and heading into this weekend, those are the names everyone is chasing.
