Let’s get one thing out of the way.
Alabama should beat Kentucky.
The Crimson Tide are around 10.5-point favorites, have considerably more talent and looked dominant in their 48-10 Week 1 victory over East Carolina.
But does Kentucky have a chance?
Absolutely.
Make Keelon Russell Look Young
This is the biggest key.
Keelon Russell is making his first true road start, and it comes in an SEC environment that Kentucky coach Will Stein wants to make as loud as possible.
Russell looked extremely talented in Week 1, accounting for more than 300 yards of offense. But he also showed enough mistakes to remind us that he’s still inexperienced.
If Kentucky can pressure him, create a turnover or two and prevent Alabama from getting comfortable early, things could get interesting.
Kentucky Has to Score Touchdowns
Kentucky isn’t winning this game 16-13.
The Wildcats need Kenny Minchey and this new offense to produce.
Minchey couldn’t have started much better, throwing for 301 yards and four touchdowns in Kentucky’s 45-13 opener. The Wildcats also rushed for 205 yards.
Obviously, Alabama’s defense is an entirely different challenge.
But if Kentucky gets inside the red zone, field goals aren’t enough.
They need touchdowns.
Keep the Crowd Involved
The worst possible scenario for Kentucky would be Alabama jumping ahead 14-0 in the first quarter.
Kentucky needs this game ugly and uncomfortable.
Force an early turnover. Hit Russell. Convert a fourth down. Score first.
Anything that keeps Kroger Field involved increases the pressure on a young Alabama offense.
And Alabama hasn’t exactly been unbeatable away from Tuscaloosa under Kalen DeBoer. The Tide are 6-5 in true road games through his first two seasons.
That’s why I’m not completely dismissing Kentucky.
Alabama is better.
Alabama should win.
But if Russell makes a couple of mistakes, Kentucky turns those mistakes into touchdowns and this game reaches the fourth quarter within one possession?
Then Alabama could suddenly find itself in serious trouble.
I don’t know if Kentucky pulls off the upset.
But I definitely think the Wildcats have a chance to make Alabama sweat.
