Welcome back to March Madness 2026 Bid Stealer Watch!
As power conference tournaments get underway, we will track all the conference tournaments that could produce bubble chaos with bid stealers. The conferences tracked here are the power 5 conferences of the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, and SEC, where the top of the conference teams are safely in the tournament with at-large bids if they do not win the conference tournament, and the Atlantic 10, Mid-American, Mountain West, and West Coast, where the regular season leaders are currently forecasted to make the Big Dance as an at-large, but where bid stealers still remain.
All other conferences are one-bid leagues, and those conference breakdowns can be found in our One-Bid Conference AQ watch.
Since the welcome article last week, the WCC has kicked into high gear and are onto the semifinals and the ACC’s bottom 3 teams were officially eliminated from tournament contention. Tomorrow, power 5 tournaments kick off with the ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten starting play, while the SEC, Big East, A10, and Mountain West kick off Wednesday. All eyes will be on the MAC and 31-0 Miami OH starting Thursday.
For the purposes of Bid Stealer Watch, we will break down the teams into four groups: Safely In, Bubble, Bid Stealers Still Alive, and Eliminated. For bubble identification, we identify bubble teams based on the hard work of bracketologists as part of the Bracket Matrix project, such as T3, Made for March, JBR, and Bauertology. Be sure to give them a follow on X/Twitter!
Bubble identification is important because although bubble teams aren’t technically bid stealers, they can play their way safely into the field via an AQ, which in turn can affect who plays in the play-in games in Dayton and who could be left out of the field entirely if there are enough bid stealers. As Jon Rothstein exclaims on X/Twitter, the bid stealers are out there!
Atlantic 10 (March 11-15, Pittsburgh, PA)
Safely In: None
Bubble: Saint Louis, VCU
Bid Stealers Still Alive: Dayton, Saint Joseph’s, George Mason, Davidson, Duquesne, Fordham, George Washington, Rhode Island, Richmond, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, Loyola Chicago
Eliminated: None
Our expectation: Although Saint Louis is most likely safely in the field, VCU could avoid all doubt with an AQ, and sending a power team to Dayton while at it. Any team not named Saint Louis and VCU would 100% be a bonafide bid stealer. Watch out for Dayton and George Mason in this tournament.
ACC (March 10-14, Charlotte, NC)
Safely In: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Clemson, Miami (FL)
Bubble: NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech, Cal
Bid Stealers Still Alive: Florida State, Stanford, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Pitt
Eliminated: Notre Dame, Boston College and Georgia Tech
Our expectation: The top of the ACC is too good for us to project bid stealers right now, however Duke is playing for the overall one seed this week. Also, the ACC is bubble-liscious right now. NC State, SMU, VT, and Cal all need wins.
Big 12 (March 10-14, Kansas City, MO)
Safely In: Arizona, Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas, BYU
Bubble: UCF, TCU, Cincinnati
Bid Stealers Still Alive: West Virginia, Colorado, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas State, Utah
Eliminated: None
Our expectation: Any of the bubble teams could go on a run, even possibly vaunting a red-hot Cincinnati into the field, however, we expect the top of the league to squash any bid stealers, keeping teams like Cincinnati on the bubble.
Big East (March 11-14, New York City, NY)
Safely In: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
Bubble: None
Bid Stealers Still Alive: Seton Hall, DePaul, Creighton, Providence, Butler, Xavier, Marquette, Georgetown
Eliminated: None
Our expectation: If the Big East wants more than three bids, someone else than the “safely in” group will have to steal a bid in Madison Square Garden. However, with only three projected bids, it means at least one bid stealer will be playing in the semifinals, so a path for a bid stealer exists. Maybe Seton Hall?
Big Ten (March 10-15, Chicago, IL)
Safely In: Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa, UCLA
Bubble: Ohio State, Indiana, USC
Bid Stealers Still Alive: Minnesota, Washington, Rutgers, Northwestern, Maryland, Oregon, Penn State
Eliminated: None
Our expectation: In terms of bid stealers, it would take a lot, but Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois, and Purdue are all jockeying for seeding and preferred first round sites. Indiana needs a win or two to get into the field.
Mid-American (March 12-14, Cleveland, OH)
Safely In: None
Bubble: Miami (OH)
Bid Stealers Still Alive: Akron, Kent State, Toledo, Ohio, Bowling Green, Buffalo, UMass, Central Michigan
Eliminated: Ball State, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois
Our expectation: 31-0 Miami OH can remove all doubt with an AQ, but a bid stealer would create heated debate on if Miami OH deserves an at large bid. We project Miami OH to be in the field regardless, but an Akron upset in our projected MAC Championship would create a 2-bid MAC and a bid stealer. No conference has more on the line than the MAC this week.
Mountain West (March 11-14, Las Vegas, NV)
Safely In: None
Bubble: Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State
Bid Stealers Still Alive: Grand Canyon, UNLV, Boise State, Nevada, Colorado State, Wyoming, Fresno State, San Jose State, Air Force
Eliminated: None
Our expectation: New Mexico and San Diego State have faltered down the stretch, and the Mountain West could be a one bid league unless someone other than Utah State wins it. Las Vegas always creates chaos so expect a bid stealer in this league.
SEC (March 11-15, Nashville, TN)
Safely In: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia
Bubble: Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Auburn
Bid Stealers Still Alive: Oklahoma, Miss State, Ole Miss, LSU, South Carolina
Eliminated: None
Our expectation: Auburn needs 2 or 3 wins, and so does Oklahoma who is remarkably not dead yet, and although we project Florida is too good, we can’t count out any team from the highest ranked conference per NET. Stay tuned for Auburn and Oklahoma on Thursday if they can win on Wednesday.
West Coast (March 5-10, Las Vegas, NV)
Safely In: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
Bubble: Santa Clara
Bid Stealers Still Alive: Oregon State
Eliminated: San Francisco, Pacific, Seattle, Washington State, Portland, Loyola Marymount, San Diego, Pepperdine
Our expectation: Santa Clara can remove all doubt with a win against Saint Mary’s tonight, but only Oregon State is the one true bid stealer remaining. It would take two massive upsets for the WCC to produce a bid stealer.
Bid Stealer Watch is a daily post this week until there are no more bid stealers available, so come back to check everything out.
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