Who To Watch At Royal Birkdale – The Open Championship Preview
Odds – Jul 15 7:30 pm EDT
Authored by Adrian Rosati, Jonathan Hutson, and Ryan Smith
Golf fans everywhere are excited for the final major of the year. With many potential storylines at play, we rely on the odds, as well as Jordan Spieth’s 2017 victory and where his stats were going in to compare our candidates for the next champion at Royal Birkdale.
The Reference Point
Jordan Spieth 2017 Champion
GIR top 10
Stroke Gained Approach: 2nd
Strokes Gained: Scrambling: Top 20
Strokes Gained Putting: 5th
Scottie Scheffler – United States – OWGR #1 – +590
For world number 1 Scottie Scheffler the last few weeks have been some to forget. After treading water over the cut line, he finally missed the cut, after a 78 event streak. See Ryan’s article on how that ranks all time to admire just what company he was in with that streak. The issue this year, the putter. He ranks 18th on tour in strokes gained putting, and putts we expect Scottie to make have not gone in. This is going to be important at Royal Birkdale. Links style courses typically depend on scrambling. While Scottie ranks 3rd in this category, making saves around the green is also going to be equally as crucial with the deep style bunkers and tall grass. Working in Scottie’s favour is that he’s 1st in finding greens in regulation. This could hamper the putting issue as a few extra putts may end up in pars instead of bogies. If Scottie doesn’t win this week. He will go 4 major tournaments without winning one. While that’s not that uncommon, for Scottie, it seemed like he was winning a major every other tournament in his run at the top. Funnily enough, he’s defending the open. It seems like a Scheffler thing to do to silence the backed up doubt and defend the title this week. Scottie has never played Royal Birkdale for a professional round in his career.
GIR: 1st this season, Meets Spieth GIR Requirements
SG: Approach 17th – Below Spieth
SG: Scrambling 3rd – Met Spieth
SG: Putting 18th – Below Spieth
Rory McIlroy – Northern Ireland – OWGR #2 – +760
Rory is in for a ride this week. He is one of the best drivers of the golf ball but his putting and scrambling have been holding him back this year from making more noise and winning more events post Masters. Driving distance will play this week, as links courses are generally longer. However it’s going to be important that McIlroy hits the green in regulation. His 4th ranks second on this list, behind world No.1 Scottie Scheffler. His relaxed tournament schedule may be in his favour, as there is less toll on his body. A T-7 last week at the Genesis only proves that Rory is in his element heading into this week. Since his Masters win, he’s placed in the top-20 except the U.S. Open, where he was T-32. His last and only The Open win was in 2014.
GIR: 4th this season, Meets Spieth GIR Requirements
SG: Approach 6th – Below Spieth
SG: Scrambling 54th – Below Spieth
SG: Putting 67th – Below Spieth
Tommy Fleetwood – England – OWGR #9 – +1750
Tommy has had an eventful season, since he got cut at the PGA hes answered with a top 5 at Memorial and 4 consecutive top 20’s with a few borderline to becoming top 10’s including the US Open where he was T11. He is going to need to hit greens in regulation this week where he ranks 6th. His Putting and SG approach are poor by tour standards, but his scrambling is top-5 and could be a difference maker at Birkdale. If he is scrambling and can make a couple surprise putts, I woiuldn’t be surprised for him continue on his hot streak of making a run for it. Tommy was T-27 in 2017 at Birkdale’s last go-around.
GIR: 6th this season, Meets Spieth GIR Requirements
SG: Approach 53rd – Well Below Spieth
SG: Scrambling 5th – in line with Speith
SG: Putting 55th – Well Below Spieth
Matt Fitzpatrick – England – OWGR #3 – +1750
What a year it’s been for Matt up until this point. From being paired up with his brother and earning him his tour card. To maintaining his 3rd world ranking this year and playing some of the best golf of his career. While his strokes- gained approach is just below our Spieth benchmark, his greens and his scrambling are the keys to success this week. As we have seen, a good scrambler generally has a ton of success on links style courses, and the European advantage being English comes into play. Like most, the weakness is putting. His strokes gained have been poor, resulting in some tough missed putts that have cost him some additional holes and some places. His game is locked in for this event. Solo 4th at the Travelers and T3 at last weeks Genesis, he is itching for a win and he has defintley been playing consistent in the hunt golf. Over the last two weeks he’s probably been the player on this list that’s consistently pushing for a win. With Schefflers 78 event streak coming to an end, he becomes the 1st place active leader with 28 straight made cuts.
GIR: 6th this season, Meets Spieth GIR Requirements
SG: Approach 5th – Below Spieth
SG: Scrambling 18th – in line with Speith
SG: Putting 112th – Well Below Spieth
Jon Rahm – Spain – OWGR # 11 – +1950
Jon Rahm has been a stud on the LIV Golf tour having a few wins in his tenure. Because of his limited PGA rounds played his rankings amongst the tours best are unreliable to he used in comparison and noted as limited. However, his LIV stats dont lie. He is first in greens in regulation, and tops in strokes gained approach. His putting is slightly between Speith’s level when he won at Royal Birkdale almost a decade ago, but hes top 10 – the caveat being its LIV. His PGA results include a T2 at the PGA Champiosnhip, but outside the top 25 at the Masters and last week at the Genesis as well as a missed cut at the U.S. Open. Shinnecock is definitely a good barometer for how guys are going to play this week. And he may be on the outside looking in. This is supported by his T-44 finish at The Open the last time it was at Birkdale in 2017.
(LIV Stats as PGA is limited rounds so not ranked)
GIR: 1st this season, Meets Spieth GIR Requirements
SG: Approach 1st – Meets Spieth
SG: Scrambling 4th – in line with Speith
SG: Putting 9th – Below Spieth
Xander Schauffle – United States – OWGR #14 – +2400
Xander Schauffle is on the outside looking in at this point. At +2200, hes clearly a long shot. As with most of the guys on this list that are in the tops in terms of odds, his scrambling stats are fantastic. However, hits putting is up there just better then Tommy at 47th and his GIR is 38th. He will need to show he can hit some greens if he wants to make a run for it this week. The X-factor with Xander is he seems to show up with majors. More to his favour, like Scheffler he had two extra days to focus on Birkdale with being cut last week. He was T7 in the Masters, T7 in the PGA Champiosnhip and T11 at the US Open at Shinnecock Hills. That’s an impressive resume. If it was any week, I would be counting him out this week, but its a major championship, so the safe money is on Xander to put on a show. In 2017 he placed T-20th at Birkdale, so he will definitely look to improve on that this week.
GIR: 38th this season, Does Not Meet Spieth GIR Requirements
SG: Approach 30th – Well Below Spieth
SG: Scrambling 13th – in line with Speith
SG: Putting 47th – Well Below Spieth
Chris Gotterup – United States – OWGR #6 – +2900
Chris Gotterup is cementing himself as a top guy slowly but surely to be considered as a winner each and every tournament. While he was somewhat gifted the John Deere, -9 in round 4 to steal one is no joke. He showed up that week when it mattered the most. Last week he was T11, which is respectable going into the final major of the year. When it comes to comparables, he is well below Spieth metrics coming into it with his best being putting in 35th. In order to make it work, he’s going to have to have the best strokes gained: scrambling of his season and the puts are going to have to drop like they have recently. It’s not out of reach, but honestly it’s going to take a lot to win this week. While he’s never won a major, he placed solo 3rd in last years Open Championship. It’s important to note that it wasn’t played at Birkdale, but that coupled along with last weeks performance shows he will be in the hunt in links gol. This week shouldn’t be much different.
GIR: 48th this season, Does Not Meet Spieth GIR Requirements
SG: Approach 46th – Well Below Spieth
SG: Scrambling 74th – Below Spieth
SG: Putting 35th – Well Below Spieth
Cameron Young – United States – OWGR #4 +2900
Cameron Young is the 4th in the official world golf rankings. Since his win in Miami at the beginning of May he was T-10 at the Truist before being barely along the cut line ever since in the mid 40’s (usually tied) and really not separating himself in the pack. The poor play of late has really overshadowed the last 12-18 months where he was always in the hunt. Approaching mid-July, Young is looking for a spark to get things back to where they went to be. A majority of his struggles really have been a result of his poor greens in regulation ranking 44th. The only one worse then him in this category from the above handful of guys, is Chris Gotterup. His putting also hasnt been great but its his ability to get to the green that seems to be the biggest concern. The running reason to consider him this week is he was the runner up at St Andrews in 2022 and has shown he can compete in the links format. Look for his SG approach to be one of the tops if he succeeds this week as making sure his approach shots are good is half the battle, and his scrambling should get him out of any trouble off the tee. At this point he is a real long shot to make a difference, but if he starts out hot in rounds 1 and 2, dont be surprised if he goes on a run.
GIR: 44th this season, Does Not Meet Spieth GIR Requirements
SG: Approach 21st – Below Spieth
SG: Scrambling 14th – In Line With Spieth
SG: Putting 71st – Well Below Spieth
Rosati’s Pick
I have to admit, this one is quite weird but I am leaning Xander Schauffle this week to win at +2200. Xander has burned me at multiple events, but his major performances, especially this year speak for themselves. All top 10 or just outside and the extra time off this week, may bode well to better preparation and a real shot to get back in the win column for the first time since October 12, 2025. To me, hes due and Ill be willing to risk this pick then a Rahm or a McIlory, who have both been off, Rahm almost not existent last week specifically. McIlroy focused on winning more masters and playing a lighter schedule plays a factor here. Hes not used to playing infrequently and I feel like that could hurt the kind of rhythm he likes to play with.
Smith’s Pick
My pick this week is Tommy Fleetwood. Fleetwood is due for a major after his first PGA tour win at the 2025 Tour Championship. He has 8 other wins abroad as part of the DP World Tour. What better place for Tommy to get his first major win then in his home country of England. Tommy has familiarity with this course being his home course and with almost 9 years of tour experience since his last time at Royal Birkdale, he’s honestly due to improve on that T-27 he posted last time out.
Hutson’s Pick
Rory McIlroy has the hot hand. Albeit the Master’s is vastly different than the Open, Rory has a pretty solid record at the Open, even having an exceptional comeback the last time they competed at Royal Birkdale back in 2017. Rory’s roaring confidence coming into 2026 has been evident. Knowing when to play and when to rest, he’s in it to thrive, not just survive in this years campaign. Birkdale rewards pure ball strikers as there are minimal undulations and blind tee shots. As strong as Rory’s driver has been this year, we could be in for a treat at a dried out Birkdale. He has even been quoted saying Birkdale is, “the fairest test on the Open rotation”. After winning back-to-back Masters, as well as having the English expectations flow between not just himself, but now Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick, the immense pressure he once faced is gone. Rory could easily be on his way to extending the success of his legendary career with this newly found low cortisol style, and lift the coveted Claret Jug this weekend.
We will be covering all 4 rounds of The Open here at EasySportz.com and will be keeping track of our picks the rest of the year! Feel free to follow along and see how we do.
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