Germany vs. Paraguay betting preview: Odds, prediction and best bets for Monday’s World Cup showdown
Germany enters the FIFA World Cup knockout stage as one of the tournament favorites, but Paraguay has already proven it won’t be an easy out.
The four-time world champions face a disciplined Paraguayan side Monday afternoon in the Round of 32, with a place in the Round of 16 on the line. Germany has been one of the tournament’s highest-scoring teams, while Paraguay has advanced by frustrating opponents with organized defending and timely finishing.
Match Information
- Match: Germany vs. Paraguay
- Date: Monday, June 29
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
- Stadium Capacity: 65,878
- TV: FOX (English), Telemundo (Spanish)
- Streaming: FOX One, FOX Sports App, Peacock (Spanish), Fubo
- Weather: Around 80 degrees at kickoff with mostly clear skies and light winds, creating ideal playing conditions.
Betting Odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Germany Win | -280 |
| Draw (90 minutes) | +390 |
| Paraguay Win | +740 |
| Over/Under Goals | 2.5 |
Germany is one of Monday’s biggest favorites, with sportsbooks giving Julian Nagelsmann’s side roughly a 70% chance of winning in regulation. Betting action has heavily favored the Germans since lines opened.
By the numbers
| Category | Germany | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Ranking | No. 10 | No. 43 |
| Group Stage Finish | 1st (Group E) | 3rd (Group D) |
| Group Stage Points | 6 | 4 |
| Group Stage Goals | 10 | 3 |
| World Cup Titles | 4 | 0 |
Germany blasted its way through the first two matches of group play before suffering a 2-1 loss to Ecuador after already putting itself in position to win the group. Despite that setback, the Germans finished with 10 goals, tied among the tournament leaders entering the knockout stage. Paraguay advanced as one of the best third-place teams after grinding out results with a disciplined defensive approach.
Why Paraguay could make this interesting
Don’t overlook Paraguay.
The South Americans aren’t built to win shootouts. They’re built to make favorites uncomfortable.
Paraguay defends with numbers behind the ball, stays compact through the midfield and looks to capitalize on mistakes in transition. Miguel Almirón, Julio Enciso and Álex Arce provide enough attacking quality to punish Germany if the Europeans become careless.
Germany will almost certainly dominate possession.
The question is whether it can break Paraguay down early or whether frustration begins to creep in as the match wears on.
I like Germany to pull away late.
Prediction
Pick: Germany 3, Paraguay 0
Germany simply has too much firepower to ignore.
Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz give the Germans one of the tournament’s most dangerous attacking trios, and Germany has created scoring chances at an elite rate throughout the World Cup. If the match opens up, Germany should eventually overwhelm Paraguay.
Still, this doesn’t feel like a walkover.
Paraguay has earned its place in the knockout stage by defending with discipline and refusing to beat itself. Expect Germany to control the tempo, but don’t be surprised if Paraguay forces the four-time champions to work for every inch.
Germany should advance, but it may need patience before finally finding the breakthrough in what projects to be another entertaining Round of 32 battle.
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