Atlanta, Ga. — Two modern Big Ten powerhouses meet again, but this time the stage shifts from Autzen Stadium to the Peach Bowl with a national championship berth on the line. It’s No. 1 Indiana (14-0) vs. No. 5 Oregon (13-1).
The Ducks’ lone loss? Indiana back in early October.
Indiana vs. Oregon is the ideal playoff rematch: the favorite has already landed the first punch, but the underdog has the roster talent to flip the script. Indiana has been the most consistent team in college football all season, while Oregon is the type of blue-chip roster that can look ordinary for a quarter — then score in two plays. This semifinal comes down to whether Indiana’s veteran, efficient machine can eliminate Oregon’s explosive margins. It’s also a scout’s dream matchup, featuring projected top-two NFL Draft quarterbacks Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore.
Betting Line: Indiana opened as a 4-point favorite, with the line settling at Hoosiers -3.5.
Indiana is -190 on the moneyline, Oregon is +160. The total for the game is set at 48.5.
ESPN FPI analytics give the Hoosiers a 70.4% chance to win and advance, while the Ducks have a 29.6% chance?
What does this all mean? In predictive terms, Indiana has a much better chance to win than Miami, although both are -3.5 point favorities (a field goal with a hook).
Why is that? Well, it’s up to you to draw final conclusions, but Oregon’s 55% blue-chip ratio compared to Indiana’s 8% is a big reason. It’s also hard to beat a team twice in a season, especially a well-coached one with this much talent.
The Ducks are peaking at the right time, even if Indiana never stumbled.
This is going to be an all-out war on the gridiron.
Resume + Roster Reality Check
Indiana enters at 14–0, ranked No. 1, with a chance to become the first 16–0 team since the 1894 Yale Bulldogs. Oregon sits at 13–1, ranked No. 5, with its lone loss coming to Indiana earlier this season — exactly the type of “learn-from-it” narrative that matters in playoff rematches.
Oregon checks the championship-ceiling box with a 78% Blue-Chip Ratio, while Indiana’s 8% Blue-Chip Ratio highlights the elite development and coaching of Curt Cignetti and his staff. Both teams have used the transfer portal efficiently: Indiana starts transfers at a 65.4% rate, while Oregon sits at 42.6%, including both starting quarterbacks.
Oregon Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Oregon’s offense runs through QB Dante Moore (3,280 passing yards), who can carve defenses apart when the timing game is clean — but must avoid the turnover that swings playoff games. The Ducks’ attack is built on spacing, tempo, and forcing mismatches rather than feeding a single star. WR Malik Benson (696 yards) has been the most productive target, while the run game usually sharpens Oregon’s play-action menu.
The challenge this week is significant: Oregon will be without RB Jordon Davison, who led the team with 15 rushing touchdowns before suffering a broken clavicle in the quarterfinal win over Texas Tech.
Indiana’s defense is why the Hoosiers are here. They play clean, disciplined football, ranking second nationally in penalty yards per game (25.8) and among the best in opponent yards per play (4.5) and red-zone defense. Indiana thrives on leverage control and assignment soundness, forcing opponents to earn every yard.
Indiana Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Indiana’s offense has been ruthlessly efficient behind Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza (3,172 passing yards), keeping the Hoosiers in favorable down-and-distance all season. The run game remains physical and balanced, led by RB Roman Hemby (1,007 yards) and supported by Kaelon Black, who helped overwhelm Alabama in the quarterfinal.
The receiving corps has been reliable all year, with Omar Cooper Jr. (849 yards, 12 TDs) and Elijah Sarratt (727 yards, 13 TDs) consistently moving the chains when healthy.
Oregon’s defensive answers come from its second and third levels. LB Bryce Boettcher (125 tackles) and Teitum Tuioti anchor the middle, while DB Brandon Finney Jr. and S Dillon Thieneman limit explosives and hunt turnovers. The Ducks’ goal will be to hold Indiana below the 30 points allowed in the first meeting.
How Each Team Wins
- Oregon wins if Moore plays clean, the Ducks generate early explosives, and the defense or special teams steal possessions.
- Indiana wins if it plays clean football, Mendoza stays on schedule, Hemby controls the downhill phase, and Oregon is forced to execute long drives without Davison’s red-zone presence.
Prediction
This rematch is must-watch. Both teams have improved since their first meeting, but Indiana’s discipline, efficiency, and consistency make them hard to pick against under Curt Cignetti.
Indiana 27, Oregon 20
The Hoosiers advance to their first-ever national title game in Miami, where Curt Cignetti will have a chance to cement one of the most remarkable program turnarounds college football has ever seen.
Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza will go No. 1 overall in April and the trophy case in Bloomington will be stuffed full.
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