Glendale, Ariz. — A new age of college football has arrived.
This College Football Playoff semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl is a stress test for two modern roster-building machines. Ole Miss brings a relentless offense that plays fast, wins in space, and punishes leverage mistakes, while Miami arrives with a pass rush capable of flipping a game in a single snap. I’ve gone back and forth on this matchup all week — the case is strong for both red-hot teams to continue their Cinderella runs. With a national title berth on the line, the question is simple: can Ole Miss protect Trinidad Chambliss long enough to create explosives, or does Miami’s front turn this into a survival, drive-by-drive battle?
Betting Line: Miami opened as a 3-point favorite and has inched to -3.5.
Resume + Roster Reality Check
Ole Miss enters at 13–1 (7–1 SEC), while Miami sits at 12–2 (6–2 ACC). Both look built for the expanded playoff grind. Blue-chip talent still matters in January, and Miami checks that box with a 64% Blue-Chip Ratio compared to Ole Miss’ 40%. The transfer portal has also been central to both runs — Miami features 53.6% transfer starters, while Ole Miss leads all playoff teams at 66.3%.
Key Miami transfers include Carson Beck, Akheem Mesidor, and Keionte Scott. Ole Miss countered with Trinidad Chambliss, Kewan Lacy, and Princewill Umanmielen. This semifinal is a showcase of portal-driven roster construction at its peak.
Ole Miss Offense vs. Miami Defense
Ole Miss is powered by QB Trinidad Chambliss (4,180 total yards, 29 total TDs, 3 INTs), the most electric player of the CFP so far after torching a stout Georgia defense in the Sugar Bowl. The Rebels stress defenses with RPOs, flood concepts, and play-action shots, forcing defenders to pick their poison.
Wideouts Harrison Wallace III (894 yards) and De’Zhaun Stribling (734 yards) both eclipsed 100 yards against Georgia, while RB Kewan Lacy (1,637 total yards, 23 TDs) keeps Ole Miss on schedule with physical, downhill runs.
Miami’s defense, however, is the headline. DE Rueben Bain Jr. has been the playoff’s most dominant defender (6.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, 16 pressures in 2 CFP games), paired with Akheem Mesidor off the edge. Miami wins by collapsing pockets without selling out. Slot defender Keionte Scott adds chaos, already delivering a momentum-shifting pick-six earlier this postseason.
Miami Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
Miami’s offense thrives on balance behind QB Carson Beck (3,313 yards, 27 TDs). RB Mark Fletcher has been the Hurricanes’ tone-setter in the playoff, while WR Malachi Toney (1,008 yards) is the matchup nightmare — lethal on slants, vertical routes, and even in Wildcat packages.
Ole Miss counters with second-level havoc, led by LB Suntarine Perkins, a CFP wrecking ball who disrupts run-pass conflict reads and forces negative plays.
How Each Team Wins
- Ole Miss wins if it protects on money downs, keeps Chambliss clean, and uses Lacy to stay ahead of the chains.
- Miami wins if Bain and Mesidor dominate the pocket, the Hurricanes win the turnover battle, and Beck lives in manageable down-and-distance.
Prediction
This one feels like a classic. Miami hasn’t won a title since 2001, and Ole Miss since its claimed 1962 season. Miami will cause problems, but Trinidad Chambliss has been that guy in these playoffs.
Ole Miss 31, Miami 24
HOTTY TODDY.
Waiting on the other side is the winner of the Big Ten rematch between Indiana and Oregon. Regardless of the outcome, both Ole Miss and Miami have shocked the world — and proved they belong on this stage.
