ARLINGTON, Tx. — If college football had a rewatch button, this one would’ve been worn out by now.
Ohio State vs. Miami in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl is the kind of matchup that keeps message boards humming, group chats arguing and sportsbooks nervously adjusting numbers. An 11-win brand and a 12-win brand. Two blue-chip rosters. Two coaching staffs with very different reputations. And one game that feels like it could swing on a single busted coverage, a fourth-and-short decision or — yes — a sideline smirk.
I’ve gone back and forth on this game all week. The case for Miami is real, loud and backed by data. The Hurricanes are red hot at 11-2, ranked No. 10 in the final CFP rankings, and playing their most confident football of the season. The case for Ohio State is equally strong — and ultimately where I land — because the Buckeyes don’t tend to lose twice in a row, especially not with everything still on the table.
So here we are. Strap in.
The résumé check
Both teams arrive in Arlington with playoff-worthy profiles, and ESPN’s analytics back it up.
Ohio State (11-1, No. 2 CFP) owns wins over Texas and Michigan — the kind of résumé anchors that don’t need much explanation. Miami (11-2, No. 10 CFP) counters with signature victories over Notre Dame and Texas A&M, proving this isn’t just a “fun story” Canes team.
Jeff Sagarin’s ratings give Ohio State a clear but not overwhelming edge:
- Ohio State: No. 1 overall, 96.60
- Miami: No. 6 overall, 90.31
That gap matters, but it’s not a blowout indicator. It’s more like the difference between a platinum record and gold — both elite, one just a notch shinier.
Talent, everywhere you look
If this game were a recruiting graphic, it’d break Instagram.
Ohio State enters with the No. 3 blue-chip ratio in the country at 73%, meaning nearly three-quarters of its roster were four- or five-star recruits. Miami isn’t far behind at 55% (No. 9 nationally), and that number undersells the Hurricanes’ trench strength and depth up front.
This is where casual fans sometimes miss the plot. Miami is not finesse-only. The Canes have legitimate power in the offensive and defensive lines, enough to trade punches with anyone in the country. Mark Fletcher Jr. has been the tone-setter in the backfield, and Miami’s ability to stay balanced is a big reason it’s won 11 games.
But Ohio State’s skill-position ceiling is different.
Freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith has looked like a cheat code all season, blending size, speed and composure well beyond his years. Carnell Tate gives the Buckeyes another matchup problem, and the depth at receiver allows Ryan Day to stress defenses horizontally and vertically without tipping his hand.
Ohio State doesn’t need to dominate snaps to dominate moments — and playoff games are built on moments.
The chess match on the sidelines
This is where the preview turns into a prediction.
Mario Cristobal is one of the best roster builders in the sport. Miami’s recruiting resurgence is no accident, and the Hurricanes’ physicality reflects their head coach’s DNA. But game day has never been Cristobal’s calling card.
Ryan Day, for all the noise around him, is still one of the sport’s most precise in-game operators. He scripts well, adjusts quickly and — perhaps most importantly — understands how to manage playoff pressure.
Then there was the pregame moment that made college football Twitter do what it does best. Day’s now-infamous smirk toward Cristobal during press photos didn’t decide the game, but it did reinforce the vibe: Ohio State knows exactly who it is, and it expects to respond after a loss to Indiana.
Historically, that’s when the Buckeyes are most dangerous.
Why Miami can absolutely win this game
Let’s be clear: an Ohio State pick does not come with Miami disrespect.
The Hurricanes are confident, physical and playing free. They’ve won close games. They’ve beaten name brands. They’ve developed real depth. Players like Malachi Toney have the athletic profile to swing momentum, and Fletcher’s ability to control tempo gives Miami a real path to four quarters of stress.
If Miami wins, it won’t be a shock. It’ll be because the Canes dragged Ohio State into a street fight and landed the final blow.
I thought hard about picking that upset.
Why I’m not
I can’t get past two things.
First, Ohio State rarely fails to answer adversity. The loss to Indiana stung, but history says the response is coming.
Second, when rosters are this close, coaching clarity matters. Ohio State has just a bit more oomph — more answers, more counters, more ways to win late.
That blue-chip gap shows up in the fourth quarter. The experience shows up on third-and-long. And when the game tightens, I trust Day to press the right buttons.
The prediction
This one feels like a classic. Lead changes. Big plays. A final possession that has everyone standing.
Miami hangs tough, exactly as expected. Ohio State survives, exactly as it tends to do.
Ohio State 27, Miami 24
O-H… I-O.
And waiting on the other side? A semifinal date with an SEC darling — likely Georgia — and a stage big enough for everyone involved.
Win or lose, Miami proves it belongs back among college football’s elite. Ohio State, meanwhile, keeps its championship path alive by doing what it’s done for years: responding when it matters most.
Sometimes, that’s the difference.
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