Week 7 of the 2025 college football season delivered thrills, upsets, and résumé-boosting wins that have reshaped the playoff landscape. From Indiana’s dominant 30-20 road victory over Oregon to Texas’s convincing 23-6 takedown of Oklahoma in the Red : Projections After Week 7River Rivalry, the 12-team CFP field is starting to crystallize—but it’s far from set in stone. With the expanded format guaranteeing spots for the five highest-ranked conference champions and byes for the top four overall seeds, conference races are heating up. Drawing from midseason bubble watches, bowl projections, and updated rankings, here’s our forecast for the CFP teams and seeds as we hit the midpoint of the season.
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College Football Viewing Guide, Week 8
The Top Contenders: Locks and Byes
The top of the bracket features a mix of unbeaten powerhouses and battle-tested SEC squads. Ohio State remains the gold standard, with a suffocating defense and efficient offense that has them pegged as the Big Ten favorite. Indiana’s eye-opening win at Autzen Stadium catapults them into elite status, making a strong case for a first-round bye even if they don’t win the conference. Miami continues to dominate the ACC with explosive playmaking, while Texas A&M’s rise in the SEC standings—bolstered by recent wins—positions them as the league’s projected champ.
Projected Top 4 Seeds (First-Round Byes):
- No. 1: Ohio State (Big Ten Champion) – The Buckeyes are 6-0 and look unbeatable, boasting top-tier metrics in game control and strength of record. Their path to the title game includes navigating a tough back half, but they’re the clear national favorite.
- No. 2: Indiana (At-large) – Fresh off a statement 30-20 win over Oregon, the Hoosiers jump into the top tier with a playoff probability now at 93%. If they keep rolling, a Big Ten title isn’t out of reach, but their résumé already screams top seed.
- No. 3: Miami (ACC Champion) – Undefeated and cruising through the ACC, the Hurricanes have the offense to challenge anyone. Their consistency makes them a lock for a bye.
- No. 4: Texas A&M (SEC Champion) – The Aggies surge into the field after Week 7, riding a strong run game and defense to supplant others in the crowded SEC.
The Middle Pack: Home-Field Hosts and Tough Matchups
Seeds 5-8 will host first-round games on campus (December 19-20), and this group is heavy on SEC talent. Alabama’s explosive potential keeps them in the mix despite imperfections, while Ole Miss and Georgia bring veteran rosters capable of deep runs. Oregon slides after the loss to Indiana but remains dangerous with their speed and home-field edge.
Projected Seeds 5-8:
- No. 5: Alabama (At-large) – The Tide’s depth and talent shine through, with a projected first-round home game. Their SEC schedule has prepared them for chaos.
- No. 6: Ole Miss (At-large) – A gritty win over Washington State keeps them afloat, but they need to finish drives better against top foes.
- No. 7: Georgia (At-large) – The Bulldogs’ defense is elite, and their experience in big games makes them a playoff staple.
- No. 8: Oregon (At-large) – A tough home loss to Indiana drops them, but the Ducks’ talent and Big Ten standing keep them in the field.
The Bubble Breakers: Conference Champs and At-Larges
The bottom of the bracket includes auto-bid winners from the Big 12 and Group of 5, plus a few SEC wild cards. Texas Tech emerges as the Big 12 frontrunner, while South Florida leads the American with a 30% playoff shot. LSU hangs on with a solid offense, and Texas replaces Oklahoma after the Red River win, shaking up the at-large spots.
Projected Seeds 9-12:
- No. 9: Texas Tech (Big 12 Champion) – The Red Raiders are on track for the conference title, with a balanced attack that’s boosted their odds significantly.
- No. 10: Texas (At-large) – Arch Manning and the Longhorns rebound with a dominant win over Oklahoma, clawing back into contention with three ranked games left.
- No. 11: LSU (At-large) – The Tigers survive a sloppy 20-10 win over South Carolina, but their ground game (166 yards) keeps them alive.
- No. 12: South Florida (American Champion) – The Bulls edge out Memphis and others in the Group of 5 race, with key wins over Boise State and Florida bolstering their case.
Projected First-Round Matchups
Assuming the bracket holds, here’s how the opening round could shake out (all on-campus sites):
- No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Alabama
- No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
- No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Georgia
- No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Winners advance to quarterfinals at neutral sites like the Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl on December 31-January 1.
Bubble Watch: Who’s In, Who’s Out, and Who Needs Help
The SEC could send six teams, but a three-loss squad sneaking in isn’t out of the question given the league’s depth. Tennessee sits on the cusp with a pivotal game against Alabama upcoming—if they win, their playoff odds jump to 52%. USC and BYU are alive but need signature wins; USC’s shot rises to 58% with a victory at Notre Dame. Notre Dame, as an independent, needs to run the table for a 50% at-large chance. Oklahoma drops out after the Texas loss, joining teams like Missouri and Penn State that need major help.
Final Thoughts
This projection reflects the fluidity after Week 7—Indiana’s rise, Oregon’s fall, and Texas’s resurgence highlight how one game can flip the script. The Big Ten looks stacked with three potential top seeds, while the SEC’s cannibalization could open doors for underdogs. As we head into Week 8 matchups like Ole Miss at Georgia and Tennessee at Alabama, expect more shakeups. Who do you think makes the cut? Drop your takes in the comments!
