MEMPHIS — As the Arkansas Razorbacks (2–1) and Memphis Tigers (3–0) prepare to face off at the Liberty Bowl this Saturday, anticipation continues to build, for what could be one of Week 4’s most intriguing games.
Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. Eastern and will be broadcast nationally on ABC, with fans able to follow along via team radio networks and SiriusXM.
Both squads come into this game on positive trajectories, Arkansas looking to rebound from a close loss to Ole Miss, and Memphis aiming to continue its unbeaten start while bolstering its Group of Five playoff resume. With the Razorbacks favored by Vegas (-7.5) and the over/under at 61.5, the stage is set for a high-stakes clash in the heart of Memphis.
Sagarin Ratings Breakdown
In the preseason, Arkansas debuted 27th with a rating of 76.01, while Memphis started at 64th with a 65.54 rating. As of now, Arkansas has climbed to 24th, with a rating of 80.79, and Memphis has risen to 49th, with a rating of 74.31.
These jumps indicate that both programs have been trending upward, Arkansas maintaining its consistency into a close road loss at Ole Miss, and Memphis showing Group of Five dominance early in 2025, in picking up a pair of road wins.
Using the Sagarin subtraction model, the expected spread is calculated by subtracting Memphis’s rating from Arkansas’s:
80.79 (Arkansas) – 74.31 (Memphis) = 6.48
Taking account for the home-field advantage of 5.38 points for Memphis:
6.48 – 5.38 = 1.1 points in favor of the Hogs.
According to Sagarin, Arkansas would be favored by roughly 1.1 points, based on stats—a stark contrast to the Vegas line favoring Arkansas by 7.5.
Now, Sagarin is as close as it gets to a Vegas model for the public eye, but it lacks the power of injury knowledge, true current form and the film room.
Make no mistake, Arkansas is the better team on paper, but this is a true trap game for the Hogs. Sandwiched between a crushing loss to Ole Miss on the road and a major non-conference clash with Notre Dame, the Razorbacks must fend off Memphis to save their season.
Vegas Line vs. Sagarin Prediction
Vegas oddsmakers clearly weigh Arkansas’s SEC pedigree and recent performances more heavily than pure power ratings. Meanwhile, Sagarin’s model accounts for team efficiency, strength of schedule, and the numerical value of home-field advantage—giving Memphis a notable edge in the equation. Home-field is generally thought of as a field goal advantage in the eyes of the casual fan, but Sagarin changed its basis from 3.73 points to 5.38 this week for the hosts.
This data is certain to change, but right now, home field advantage has never meant more.
The data discrepancy suggests a competitive game, with Memphis potentially exploiting home energy to challenge the favored Razorbacks.
Expect this spread to close under a touchdown, barring injury news.
Game Outlook for Arkansas vs. Memphis
Arkansas will lean on its SEC experience and improved rating, while Memphis seeks to prove that its rise from 64th to 49th in Sagarin rankings is legitimate. With both teams trending upward and the Liberty Bowl environment in play, expect a tightly contested, high-energy showdown. This is a game fans won’t want to miss, especially as the Razorbacks look ahead to a massive showdown against Notre Dame next week, while the Tigers aim to continue their Group of Five playoff push.
If you want to take Memphis and the points, we suggest doing so now. For Hog backers, you may want to wait a little closer to kickoff.
Meanwhile, our full game preview can be found here!
Check Out All EasySportz College Football Content Here!
Looking Back on Vandy Football
