New York — The unofficial launch pad of the college basketball season, the State Farm Champions Classic, returns to Madison Square Garden Tuesday with a pair of marquee matchups. The No. 24 Kansas Jayhawks take on the No. 5 Duke Blue Devils at 9 p.m. ET (on ESPN).
It follows a high-profile opener between the No. 17 Michigan State Spartans and No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats, but this nightcap may well become the more talked-about matchup of the evening, due to branding and unpredictability.
Coaches and Prestige
Kansas legend Bill Self continues to steer the Jayhawks, a program rich in tradition, while in Durham, Jon Scheyer — the chosen heir to the great Mike Krzyzewski (“Coach K”) — is seeking to further cement the Blue Devils’ standing. With Krzyzewski’s storied ties to Army (he served at West Point) and the Blue Devils’ road contest at United States Military Academy in West Point earlier this month (on Veterans Day) as a salute to the troops, the night already has extra subtext.
Credit to Duke for playing that game on the road, by the way. A classy move from the Blue Devils, giving the cadets a moment they’ll never forget.
Program History and Stakes
Duke enters the matchup with five NCAA titles to its name — including championships in 1991, 1992, 2001, 2010 and 2015.
Kansas claims six national championships (per NCAA recognition) and two Helms Foundation retrospective titles, placing it among the most decorated programs in the sport.
On the conference front, Duke holds the all-time ACC Tournament record with 23 championships. Kansas has won or shared an NCAA-record 63 conference regular-season titles and dozens of conference tournament championships as well.
So beyond the early season ranking, tonight is a rich clash of legacy meets new era at the Garden. In chaotic times of NIL, transfer portal and uncertainty, one thing remains. Blue blood pedigree on full display.
Season Context
The Jayhawks are 3-1 entering the Classic, their lone blemish a road loss to the No. 18 North Carolina Tar Heels, that showed Kansas still has some rough spots to smooth out.
The Blue Devils, meanwhile, roll in undefeated at 4-0 in the post-Cooper Flagg era (yes, Flagg, the freshman phenom, figures heavily in the Duke story), notably knocking off Texas in Charlotte early on. With the Jayhawks projected to finish in the top third of the Big 12 and Duke picked by many to win the ACC, each team has something to prove on Tuesday night.
On the analytics side, according to recent KenPom data, Duke sits 2nd nationally, with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranked 4th and defensive efficiency 9th. KenPom Kansas checks in at 26th overall, with an offensive rating of 55th and a defensive rating of 11th.
If efficiency is any guide, this appears to be a night when Duke holds a structural advantage.
Vegas concurs: Duke is favored by -10.5 points, total at 150.5. In my best estimate, Duke wins by 8 — a solid margin, though by no means a blowout, given Kansas’ outstanding coaching and toughness.
What to Watch For
Kansas’ strengths and vulnerabilities: The Jayhawks are battle-tested early — a road trip to UNC and a 3-1 mark suggests they’ve seen quick adversity and will grow from it. Their defensive efficiency ranking (11th) means they get stops and have a sturdy baseline. On the flip side, their offense (mid-50s nationally) means they may struggle to keep pace if Duke hits its stride. Bill Self’s teams typically grind, defend, and make you earn every bucket, and Kansas will lean into that tonight. Their youth will show at moments, but so far their early schedule suggests they’re ahead of many first-months-of-season squads.
Duke’s strengths and vulnerabilities: Scheyer’s ensemble is new and youthful, but talented. Duke’s talent, length and athleticism give them upside to dominate both ends. The prior week’s showing at Army (114-59) showed they can blow teams off the floor. Still, the “new roster” caveat looms — inexperience, chemistry quirks and early season growing pains could flare up. Kansas’ veteran edge might help them hang around if Duke stumbles.
Match-up keys:
- Can Kansas slow down Duke’s transition game and length? If Duke gets easy buckets, the Jayhawks’ middling offense may be exposed.
- Can Duke avoid letdowns and turnovers? Young teams often lapse mid-game; Kansas has enough poise to make you pay.
- Who wins the rebound/battle for second-chance points? Kansas will try to scrap; Duke will try to dominate the glass with wings and bigs running the floor.
- Execution down the stretch. With both teams expected to contend, tonight’s finish will lean on who plays smarter under pressure. Kansas knows how to win close games; Duke is in the phase of building that muscle.
My Take
I’m picking Duke to take this one, by eight points — say 76-68. The Blue Devils have the analytics edge, the momentum (4-0 with a quality win), and the ceiling of a young roster with superstar upside. But don’t count Kansas out: the Jayhawks, though underdogs, are battle-hardened for this early season stretch and have the ability to make Duke sweat. I expect Kansas to keep it competitive through most of the night, perhaps even take a second-half lead, but Duke’s talent, depth and efficiency will carry them through in the final minutes.
For the diehards: this one is far from a “chalk” affair. If Kansas lives in the half-court and makes hot outside shots, they’ll keep it within reach. If Duke imposes its style — pushing tempo, hitting offensive glass, defending at a high level — the Jayhawks will bend rather than break, and Duke will deliver.
Closing Thoughts
The Champions Classic is more than just an opening card—it’s a statement. For Kansas, it’s a chance to reaffirm its national-title chasing identity under Bill Self. For Duke, it’s the new era’s arrival under Jon Scheyer — a reminder that the Blue Devils’ banner still stands tall.
Tonight at Madison Square Garden, two of college basketball’s blue-bloods meet again, each for different reasons and at different phases of their cycles. Casual viewers will tune in because the brand is big. Hardcore hoops junkies will watch because the matchup promises storylines, analytics, drama and even a little unpredictability. Enjoy it — and check back later; this one might just be a preview of a Sweet Sixteen game in March or perhaps even more.
