The Toronto Maple Leafs made the safe pick Friday night. Whether they made the right one is a different conversation.
Selecting Gavin McKenna first overall was hardly a shock. The Penn State star entered the 2026 NHL Draft as the consensus favorite, and Toronto did what most expected after winning the draft lottery.
But EasySportz’s NHL insider isn’t convinced the Maple Leafs chose the player with the highest long-term ceiling.
That distinction, in our view, belongs to Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg.
Stenberg, an 18-year-old star from Frölunda HC in the Swedish Hockey League, spent much of the past six months forcing his way into the No. 1 overall discussion. He became the top-ranked international skater by NHL Central Scouting after producing one of the strongest draft-eligible seasons in recent SHL history and starring for Sweden on the international stage, including a gold-medal run at the 2026 World Junior Championship.
This isn’t a case of hindsight.
Multiple respected evaluators, including Sportsnet draft analyst Jason Bukala, publicly stated they would have selected Stenberg over McKenna. Bukala even ranked the Swedish winger atop his draft board dating back to January, citing his complete game, consistency and ability to elevate his play in the biggest moments.
EasySportz’s evaluation lands in the same neighborhood.
McKenna is an elite talent with game-breaking vision and offensive creativity. He could absolutely become a franchise cornerstone. This isn’t a criticism of the player. It’s an acknowledgment that Stenberg may have been an even cleaner fit for Toronto’s long-term identity.
The Swedish winger checks nearly every box. He plays a mature 200-foot game, thrives against professional competition, owns a dangerous shot, competes in all three zones and has drawn praise from scouts for having remarkably few weaknesses. Simply put, he’s one of the most complete prospects to enter the draft in years.
Then there’s the elephant in the room.
The Maple Leafs endured one disappointing season, finished squarely in the middle of the standings, won the draft lottery and walked away with the No. 1 overall pick. Hockey’s lottery system has always had a flair for chaos, but this year’s result was especially jarring. Plenty of rebuilding franchises spent years at the bottom only to watch a middling Toronto club leapfrog the field.
Sometimes the ping-pong balls don’t just bounce—they do backflips.
Toronto still walks away with one of hockey’s premier young stars. Few organizations would complain about adding Gavin McKenna.
But don’t be surprised if, five or 10 years from now, people look back and wonder whether Ivar Stenberg was the player who should have gone first all along.
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