Kyle Larson is Still Really Good, But Luck Has Been a Stranger of Late

Kyle Larson’s Speed Is Still There — The Results Just Aren’t Following

Kyle Larson is still doing what Kyle Larson does.

He is still fast. Still aggressive. Still capable of taking a car nobody else can win with and turning it into a weekly threat. The problem this season is simple, and it’s one every driver in NASCAR eventually runs into:

Nothing is going his way.

From Cup to the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, Larson has been everywhere he needs to be — except victory lane.


One win, but far more that got away

Larson’s only confirmed win this season has come in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series at Las Vegas, a race he controlled with the kind of clean, relentless pace that has defined his career.

But even that feels like the exception, not the trend.

Because across multiple series, the story has been the same: strong cars, winning speed, and something going wrong at the exact moment it matters most.

At Darlington, he had a winning-level car before late-race circumstances took it out of his control.

At Bristol, he arguably had a Cup win in his hands — only for the race to slip away in the closing laps despite being one of the fastest cars in the field.

At the O’Reilly level, Bristol again showed speed without payoff, reinforcing a pattern that is becoming impossible to ignore.


Dirt domination… without closure

Even on dirt — where Larson is typically at his most comfortable — the results haven’t fully lined up.

He earned the pole for the Chili Bowl, looked like the driver to beat early, and then got spun while running near the front in the opening stages. No damage to talent. No questions about pace. Just another race where the result never matched the performance.

That has been the theme.


Chaos in Atlanta and Bowman Gray adds to the stretch

At Atlanta, Larson had one of the fastest cars in the field before it unraveled in self-inflicted fashion, including contact with Shane van Gisbergen that ended his day early. It was a rare mistake in a season full of misfortune layered on top of aggression.

At Bowman Gray Stadium, chaos defined the night. Track position swings, fuel strategy questions, and ultimately running out of fuel combined into a race that never stabilized long enough for Larson to assert control — even though his speed suggested he could have.


The turning point: the Indy 500 / Coke 600 double

The timing of all this matters.

Ever since the second attempt at the Indianapolis 500 / Coca-Cola 600 double attempt, Larson’s season has felt slightly off its axis. Not in raw speed — that has never left — but in rhythm, execution, and race-to-race momentum.

It’s the kind of stretch drivers rarely explain well. The car is there. The team is there. The results are not.

And in NASCAR, that gap usually gets magnified fast.


Still one of the best in the world

What makes this stretch so unusual is who it’s happening to.

Larson remains one of the most complete drivers in motorsports — capable on pavement, elite on dirt, adaptable across disciplines, and still statistically among the fastest drivers in the Cup Series garage on any given weekend.

Nothing about his skill has diminished.

If anything, the frustration is a byproduct of how close he continues to be to breaking through.

Because the difference between a “bad season” and a “strange season” is often just a handful of races swinging the other way.

And Larson has had plenty of those.


So when does it turn?

That’s the real question now.

Not whether he is still good — that answer is obvious.

Not whether the speed is there — it clearly is.

The question is when the randomness, the timing, and the misfortune finally flip back in his direction.

Because in NASCAR, stretches like this always end the same way for elite drivers:

Eventually, the fast cars stop finishing second in bad ways.

They start finishing first in good ones.

And for Kyle Larson, that shift feels overdue — not for lack of performance, but for lack of luck.

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Jackson Fryburger