Oklahoma City, Oklahoma — Nebraska opens NCAA Tournament play Thursday against Sun Belt champion Troy in a 4/13 matchup in the South Region. The Cornhuskers arrive with one of the strongest defensive profiles in the field, while Troy looks to carry momentum from its conference title run into a potential upset bid.
Game Info
- Matchup: Troy vs. Nebraska
- Region: South Region
- Location: Paycom Center — Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
- TV: truTV
- Tip Time: 11:40 AM CT / 12:40 PM ET
- Vegas Line: Nebraska -11 to -12 range
- Over/Under: ~138–140
Troy Trojans (13 Seed)
- Head Coach: Scott Cross
- Mascot: Trojans
- Record: 22–11
- Conference Tournament Result: Won Sun Belt Tournament
- Leading Scorer: Victor Valdes — ~14.8 PPG
Metrics (KenPom / advanced)
- Offensive Efficiency: Outside Top 100
- Defensive Efficiency: Outside Top 100
- 3PT %: Low-to-mid 30s
Nebraska Cornhuskers (4 Seed)
- Head Coach: Fred Hoiberg
- Mascot: Cornhuskers
- Record: 26–6
- Conference Tournament Result: Lost in Big Ten Quarterfinals
- Leading Scorer: Pryce Sandfort — 17.8 PPG
Metrics (KenPom / advanced)
- Offensive Efficiency: Top 60 nationally
- Defensive Efficiency: Top 10 nationally
- 3PT %: ~34%
Matchup Breakdown
This matchup is defined by a clear gap in efficiency metrics.
Nebraska enters with an elite defensive unit that ranks among the nation’s best, consistently limiting high-quality looks and forcing opponents into difficult half-court possessions. That defensive strength, paired with a balanced offensive attack led by Brice Williams, has driven the Cornhuskers to one of their best seasons in program history.
Troy earned its bid by winning the Sun Belt Tournament and brings toughness and momentum, but its underlying efficiency profile lags behind high-major competition. The Trojans will need to generate offense against a top-tier defense — a significant challenge given their season-long metrics.
The key question: can Troy score efficiently enough to keep pace?
Prediction
- Pick: Nebraska advances
- Projected Score: Nebraska 72, Troy 68
Nebraska’s defensive efficiency and overall profile align closely with the double-digit Vegas spread. Unless Troy significantly exceeds its offensive baseline, this projects as a controlled win for the Cornhuskers. However, this is March. Troy is too well coached to go down without a fight. This one doesn’t scream upset on paper, but something tells us it could get frisky. Nebraska survives a scare to get its first NCAA Tournament win.
Expect Cross to end up at Georgia Tech in the next few days.
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