GREENVILLE, S.C. — The NCAA Tournament’s most lopsided matchup on paper takes the floor Thursday as top overall seed Duke begins its postseason run against MAAC champion Siena in the East Region. The Blue Devils enter March as one of the most complete teams in the country, combining elite efficiency on both ends with high-end talent and depth, while Siena arrives as a confident mid-major riding a conference tournament title and a breakout star.
For Duke, the expectation is simple: advance comfortably and conserve energy for tougher matchups ahead. For Siena, the opportunity is rare — a chance to test itself against the nation’s top team on the sport’s biggest stage.
Game Info
- Matchup: Siena vs. Duke
- Region: East Region
- Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena — Greenville, South Carolina
- TV: CBS
- Tip Time: 2:50 PM ET
- Vegas Line: Duke -20+
- Over/Under: ~140
Siena Saints (16 Seed)
- Head Coach: Gerry McNamara
- Mascot: Saints
- Record: 23–11
- Conference Tournament Result: Won MAAC Tournament
- Leading Scorer: Gavin Doty — 17.9 PPG
Metrics (KenPom / advanced)
- Offensive Efficiency: Outside Top 150 nationally
- Defensive Efficiency: Outside Top 150
- 3PT %: Low-30s
Duke Blue Devils (1 Seed)
- Head Coach: Jon Scheyer
- Mascot: Blue Devils
- Record: 32–2
- Conference Tournament Result: Won ACC Tournament
- Leading Scorer: Cameron Boozer — 22.7 PPG
Metrics (KenPom / advanced)
- Offensive Efficiency: 123.2 (Top 10 nationally)
- Defensive Efficiency: 92.8 (No. 1 nationally)
- 3PT %: ~37%
Matchup Breakdown
This matchup features one of the largest efficiency gaps in the tournament field.
Duke ranks among the nation’s elite on both ends, including the No. 1 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country and a top-10 offense. The Blue Devils are led by Cameron Boozer, who averages over 22 points per game and anchors a roster filled with high-level contributors. Their depth and athleticism allow them to control pace, dominate the glass, and generate efficient scoring opportunities in both transition and half-court sets.
Siena, meanwhile, leans heavily on Gavin Doty, a high-usage guard who powered the Saints through the MAAC Tournament. While Siena plays with discipline and toughness, its overall efficiency metrics fall well short of Duke’s, particularly on the defensive end.
The key factor is whether Siena can handle Duke’s length and pressure without turning the ball over. Extended empty possessions or scoring droughts would likely lead to quick separation.
Prediction
- Pick: Duke advances
- Projected Score: Duke 85, Siena 60
Duke’s elite two-way efficiency and significant talent advantage align with a heavy Vegas spread. While Siena’s top scorer gives it a focal point offensively, the gap in depth, size, and overall performance metrics makes this one of the most straightforward projections of the first round.
Expect Duke to control the game from the opening minutes and advance comfortably into the second round.
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