BRISTOL, Conn. — As Selection Sunday looms on March 15, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi released his latest Bracketology update Wednesday morning, laying out the most current projected 2026 NCAA Tournament field of 68 based on results through Tuesday night and before Wednesday’s games tip off.
Lunardi’s projection reflects shifting bubble dynamics across major conferences after recent games, including Tuesday’s Georgia victory over Alabama, a result that has helped the Bulldogs secure their position well within the field as an at‑large team.
Projected Last 4 Byes
According to the latest ESPN Bracketology outlook, the teams just above play‑in status — safe from the First Four — include:
- Missouri
- Texas A&M
- SMU
- UCLA
These programs are slotted as the final quartet projected into the tournament without immediate play‑in risk, reflecting résumés with a mix of Quad 1 wins and decent metrics that keep them firmly inside the cutline going into the week.
Projected Last 4 In
The teams currently considered the last four in — those most likely to be in the First Four of the NCAA Field of 68 — include:
- Santa Clara
- Ohio State
- New Mexico
- Virginia Commonwealth
These bubble squads sit just inside Lunardi’s projected field, but remain vulnerable and could shift with Wednesday and Thursday results.
First 4 Out
Just outside the projected field — the next tier down — Lunardi’s latest update places:
- Indiana
- Auburn
- Virginia Tech
- San Diego State
These programs are on the brink and would typically be first to breathe deep if results go their way late this week. Losses in conference play and middling NET/Quad metrics have kept them just outside the bracket.
Next 4 Out
The next cluster of teams still vying for a spot — slightly farther from the cutline — includes squads such as:
- USC
- California
- Cincinnati
- Seton Hall
These programs remain on the committee’s radar but would likely need strong results and some bubble‑side losses to break into the projected field.
Lunardi’s update reflects how fluid the tournament picture remains at this stage, with only a handful of teams assured of a seed while dozens jockey for positioning between now and Selection Sunday. While results earlier in the week — particularly Georgia’s win over Alabama, bolstering the Bulldogs’ at‑large résumé — have provided clarity at the top, the bubble zones remain packed and volatile.
With conference tournaments set to begin later this week, and the field announcement on Sunday, March 15, Lunardi’s latest projections underscore the razor‑thin margins that separate teams near the cutline. Wins in key matchups this week could drastically alter seeding and bubble status, making every game matter in the final stretch before March Madness tips off.
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