MARTINSVILLE, Va. — A name that hasn’t always been at the top of the odds board is suddenly entering the conversation in a big way.
Bubba Wallace might just be a surprise favorite heading into Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville Speedway — and the reasons go beyond simple optimism.
The No. 23 team has speed. Real speed.
Through the opening stretch of the 2026 season, Wallace has quietly put together one of the more consistent campaigns in the garage. He currently ranks inside the top 20 in overall speed metrics, holding his own alongside some of the sport’s biggest names while showing steady improvement week to week.
More importantly, that speed isn’t isolated.
23XI Racing as a whole has taken a noticeable step forward. With teammate Tyler Reddick already contending for wins and the organization continuing to invest in performance, Wallace has benefited from stronger equipment and a more complete team around him. The pairing with crew chief Charles Denike has also shown signs of growth, building on momentum from a 2025 season that featured career-best marks in several categories.
Now, the series heads to a track that could play directly into Wallace’s hands.
Martinsville Speedway — the shortest track on the Cup circuit at just over a half-mile — is known for its tight corners, heavy braking zones and emphasis on track position. It’s also a place where Wallace has already found success earlier in his career.
Before becoming a Cup Series winner, Wallace broke through at Martinsville in the Truck Series, earning his first national-series victory at the Virginia short track in 2014 — a moment that signaled his potential on the sport’s biggest stages.
That history matters.
Short tracks reward rhythm, patience and racecraft — all areas where Wallace has continued to develop. Combine that with improved speed from 23XI Racing, and suddenly the No. 23 Toyota becomes a legitimate contender.
There are other factors working in his favor as well.
Martinsville races often come down to long green-flag runs, tire management and avoiding chaos in traffic. Wallace’s ability to collect stage points early in the 2026 season suggests he’s running up front more consistently, putting himself in position when it matters most. ()
And then there’s timing.
Wallace hasn’t visited Victory Lane since his 2025 Brickyard 400 triumph, but the pace shown early this season hints that another win may not be far off. () With parity high across the Cup Series and no dominant driver emerging week after week, the door is open.
Sunday’s Cook Out 400, scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1, could be the perfect opportunity.
Is he the favorite? Maybe not on paper.
But given the speed of 23XI Racing, his past success at Martinsville and the upward trajectory of his team, Bubba Wallace is firmly in the conversation — and perhaps closer to Victory Lane than many expected.
The question now is simple: could this be the weekend he breaks through?
At Martinsville, surprises happen. And Bubba Wallace might be the next one.
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