The Super Bowl isn’t just about what happens on the field. Every year, attention turns to who shows up in the stands. On Kalshi, traders are putting money behind which high-profile names will attend the Big Game.
This market turns celebrity spotting into live odds.
What the market is saying
Right now, one name stands clearly above the rest:
- Jason Kelce (72%) is the strong favorite. With league ties and media presence, traders see him as highly likely to attend.
- Lionel Messi (46%) sits next, reflecting expectations that global sports stars could make an appearance.
- Elon Musk (40%) rounds out the top tier, driven by his history of showing up at major cultural events.
Behind them is a mixed group that includes politicians, former presidents, and other celebrities, all sitting at lower probabilities.
How this market works
Each person listed is their own contract. If they attend the Super Bowl, the contract resolves to “Yes.” Multiple outcomes can hit. This isn’t about picking one attendee, it’s about who actually shows up.
The odds move as travel plans, public appearances, or social media hints surface.
The big picture
This Kalshi market offers a snapshot of public expectations around Super Bowl attendance. Based on current trading, the crowd believes Jason Kelce is all but a lock, while Messi and Musk remain strong but less certain bets.
As game day approaches, these odds can shift fast.
