Wednesday, February 4, 2026 | 3:00 PM ET | Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
Aggregate: Manchester City lead 2–0
A place in the Carabao Cup Final is on the line as Manchester City welcome Newcastle United for the second leg of this semifinal. City carry a commanding 2–0 advantage back home, meaning they can afford to be patient and play on their terms. Newcastle, meanwhile, have no choice but to chase the game: a 2–0 Newcastle win forces extra time, while a three-goal Newcastle win would flip the tie outright. Expect a tense opening, then an increasingly wide-open match as the minutes tick down.
Betting Lines
- Moneyline: Man City -130 | Newcastle +300 | Draw +280
- Total: Over 2.5 (-175) | Under 2.5 (+135)
- Spread: Man City -0.5 (-140) | Newcastle +0.5 (EVEN)
Resume Check
Manchester City — Last Five (All Competitions)
- D vs Tottenham (2–2, EPL)
- W vs Galatasaray (2–0, UCL)
- W vs Wolves (2–0, EPL)
- L vs Bodø/Glimt (1–3, UCL)
- L vs Manchester United (0–2, EPL)
Newcastle United — Last Five (All Competitions)
- L at Liverpool (1–4, EPL)
- D vs Paris Saint-Germain (1–1, UCL)
- L vs Aston Villa (0–2, EPL)
- W vs PSV (3–0, UCL)
- D at Wolves (0–0, EPL)
Last Five Head-to-Head (All Competitions)
- Newcastle 0–2 Man City (Carabao Cup, Jan 13, 2026)
- Newcastle 2–1 Man City (EPL, Nov 22, 2025)
- Man City 4–0 Newcastle (EPL, Feb 15, 2025)
- Newcastle 1–1 Man City (EPL, Sep 28, 2024)
- Man City 2–0 Newcastle (FA Cup, Mar 16, 2024)
Players to Watch
Manchester City
- Erling Haaland — The Premier League’s leading scorer, and the ultimate tie-controller: if he finishes one chance, Newcastle’s comeback math gets brutal fast.
- Rayan Cherki — City’s top Carabao Cup scorer so far (3 goals); the connector who can punish a stretched defense in the half-spaces.
- Phil Foden — The tempo-setter in big matches; dangerous arriving late into the box and key in City’s chance creation.
Newcastle United
- Bruno Guimarães — The engine of Newcastle’s buildup and one of their best creators in this competition (2 assists); if Newcastle are scoring twice, he’s probably involved.
- Sandro Tonali — Sets the rhythm and helps Newcastle sustain pressure; important for winning second balls and keeping City pinned.
- William Osula — A direct goal threat in this cup run (2 goals); Newcastle need someone willing to run in behind and finish early chances.
How Manchester City Win
- Turn the tie into a possession game. Slow the tempo, limit transitions, and force Newcastle to defend for long stretches.
- Make Newcastle overcommit. Once Newcastle push numbers forward, City’s spacing and quick combinations can create high-quality chances.
- Get an early “tie-killer” moment. One City goal forces Newcastle to score at least three just to reach extra time—exactly what City want.
How Newcastle United Win
- Start fast and score first. Newcastle’s clearest path is an early goal to ignite belief and immediately swing momentum.
- Win the midfield fight. They must disrupt City’s rhythm through Guimarães/Tonali pressure and force uncomfortable turnovers.
- Take risks with purpose. The tie demands aggression—but it has to be organized aggression, with smart pressing triggers and quick, decisive attacks.
Prediction: Manchester City should control this match from the opening whistle, using their 2–0 aggregate advantage to dictate tempo through sustained possession and smart game management. With Newcastle forced to chase goals, gaps will inevitably open, and City’s attacking quality is built to exploit them. The hosts are simply too balanced, too experienced, and too comfortable in these moments for the tie to swing dramatically. Expect a composed performance that books their place in the final against either Arsenal or Chelsea.
Manchester City 2 (4), Newcastle United 1 (1)
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