February 28th, 2010; almost 8 minutes into overtime Sidney Crosby takes a pass from Jerome Iginla, and slides it past United States goalie Ryan Miller to send the entire nation of Canada into pandemonium. That goal clinched Canada a gold medal and sparked a Cold War of sorts between the United States and Canada. After Canada dispatched the United States 1-0 in the semi finals of the 2014 games in Sochi, there would not be another best on best game between the two hockey powerhouses until February 2025.
Fast forward to February 2025, in the midst of political posturing, the United States and Canada would meet for the first time in best on best in 11 years in the 4 Nations Face Off. The game started with three fights in 9 seconds. The United States would go onto win that game 3-1 setting up a showdown in Boston for the 4 Nations championship. Canada would end up prevailing in the championship game 3-2 in overtime on the back of a Connor McDavid winner.
As soon as the McDavid shot hit the back of the net, all eyes instantly turned to the 2026 Olympic Games in Milan, Italy. The 2026 games would mark the first time that NHL players would be in the Olympics since the 2014 games in Sochi. The US and Canada have had some legendary battles in the World Juniors, but nothing compares to the best on best at the Olympic Games.
When the 2026 Olympic Games opened over two weeks ago everyone had a potential United States-Canada Gold Medal game penciled in. It wasn’t for a lack of drama, both teams survived overtime scares in the quarter final round. Canada came from behind to dispatch Czechia 3-2, while the United States outlasted Sweden 2-1 on a Quinn Hughes snipe. Canada had a bit of a scare in their semi final, falling behind Finland 2-0, before scoring 3 unanswered goals capped by a Nathan MacKinnon power play goal. The United States on the other hand cruised past Slovakia winning 6-2, lead by 2 goals from Jack Hughes.
This leads to Sunday’s Gold Medal Game, the third time these two nations will square off for a Gold Medal with Canada winning the previous two, 5-2 (2002 Salt Lake City) and 3-2 (2010 Vancouver). This game has a different feel compared to the other two games as the United States has caught up to the Canadians talent wise. Led by superstars Auston Matthews and Quinn Hughes, the United States looks to bring home their third Men’s Ice Hockey gold.
Let’s break it down:
The United States has closed the talent gap in recent years, but team Canada’s forwards may be the best in the world, led by Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and teenage wunderkind Macklin Celebrini. The United States will struggle to match anything Canadian coach Jon Cooper will throw over the boards. What the United States lacks in forwards they make up for with defense and goaltending. Led by Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy and Connor Hellebuyck, the United States is widely regarded as having the best defensive unit in the world. In order for the United States to win this game, they will need huge defensive games from Quinn Hughes and McAvoy, both players who were not in the lineup in the 2025 overtime loss to Canada.
The key matchup for me to watch in this game will be how the United States third line plays in this game. Jack Hughes, Dylan Larkin and Tage Thompson make up this line and it has been one of the best lines in the entire tournament, with that line contributing 4 goals in the 6-2 win over Slovakia. Thompson was another player who was left off of the 2025 4 Nations team, but has been a force in these games both at 5 on 5 and on the power play. He did leave the Slovakia game after the seance period, but all signs point to him being a go for Sunday’s game.
The other X-Factor for team USA will be the play of reigning Hart and Vezina Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck is wildly regarded as the best goalie in the world, but has shown to be shaky in big moments during his NHL career. In order for the US to win, I believe that Hellebuyck needs to have a game similar to what he had in the 4 Nations final. Shutting down team Canada’s forwards will be crucial for the success of this team.
Overall I believe the United States will come out on top in this game. I believe the back end depth, with the additions of Quinn Hughes and McAvoy, as well as the forwards Tage Thompson, Auston Matthews and Jack Eichel, will be enough to give the United States a win. Give me the United States 4-2.
The wait is almost over, so set those alarms, get coffee ready, and enjoy your eggs and toast with a side of the greatest rivalry in sports, Sunday at 8:10 AM EST on NBC.
ROCK. FLAG. EAGLE.
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