Prediction markets don’t rely on sportsbook odds. Instead, they reflect real-time buying and selling based on crowd belief. On Kalshi, traders are pricing who they think will become the next head coach of the Miami Dolphins.
These percentages represent the implied probability of each candidate being hired, based on market activity. They’re not guarantees, but they provide a clear snapshot of where public sentiment and money currently sit.
Below is a breakdown of what the market is signaling.
How to Read the Probabilities
Kalshi markets display outcomes as percent chances.
- Higher percentage = higher perceived likelihood
- Lower percentage = longer shot
For example, a candidate at 54% is viewed as more likely than not to land the job, while a candidate at 5% would be considered a long shot.
The Market Favorite
One name stands clearly above the rest.
- John Harbaugh (54%)
The dominant favorite. The market strongly believes Harbaugh is the most likely choice, with more than half of traders backing him as the next Dolphins head coach.
A percentage this high suggests confidence rather than speculation.
Top Contenders
These candidates trail the favorite but still hold meaningful support.
- Vance Joseph (22%)
The clear No. 2 option. His defensive background and prior head-coaching experience keep him firmly in contention. - Robert Saleh (10%)
A respected defensive leader whose market support reflects real, though limited, belief in his chances.
This tier represents candidates the market views as legitimate alternatives.
Mid-Tier Candidates
These names draw interest but lack strong momentum.
- Jesse Minter (20%)
- Mike McCarthy (20%)
- Kevin Stefanski (8%)
- Klint Kubiak (10%)
- Jeff Hafley (9%)
Percentages in this range suggest curiosity and theoretical fit rather than strong conviction.
Long Shots and Speculation Plays
Once probabilities dip into single digits, outcomes become increasingly speculative.
- Jon Gruden (6%)
- Brian Flores (5%)
- Kliff Kingsbury (5%)
- Mike McDaniel / No new permanent head coach (1%)
These outcomes often reflect name recognition, contingency scenarios, or hedging behavior by traders.
What This Market Really Tells Us
The Kalshi data paints a clear picture.
- There is a strong favorite, not a split market.
- Experience and proven leadership are heavily valued.
- The market believes a decision may be relatively clear-cut.
Prediction markets tend to move quickly when new information emerges, but as it stands, sentiment is firmly aligned behind one candidate.
