Kickoff: Sunday, 3:00 PM ET
After a defensive masterclass in the Wild Card round and another gritty Divisional Round win over Houston, the New England Patriots head to Mile High with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Standing in their way are the Denver Broncos, back in the AFC Championship for the first time in a decade—but now forced to turn to backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham after a crushing injury to Bo Nix.
What once projected as a matchup of ascending young quarterbacks has shifted into a battle of elite defenses, veteran coaching, and discipline. With Super Bowl LX at stake, this game figures to be physical, methodical, and decided by mistakes.
Betting Lines (ESPN)
- Spread: Patriots -5.5 (opened -4.5)
- Moneyline: Patriots -258 | Broncos +210
- Over/Under: 42.5
New England’s line moved sharply following Denver’s quarterback injury, reflecting the challenge the Broncos face offensively.
Playoff Resume Check
Patriots
- Divisional Round: Defeated Houston 28–16 in snowy conditions
- Forced five turnovers, overcoming multiple offensive miscues
- Winners of 15 of their last 16 games, including playoffs
- Defense continues to dictate games while the offense controls tempo rather than chasing points
Broncos
- Divisional Round: Beat Buffalo 33–30 in an overtime thriller
- Game featured controversial calls, but Denver capitalized late with a clutch field goal
- Major setback: QB Bo Nix suffered a season-ending broken ankle in overtime
- Jarrett Stidham steps in with no playoff experience and just four career starts
Key Injuries
Broncos:
- Bo Nix (QB) – Out, broken bone in ankle
Patriots:
- Carlton Davis (CB) – In concussion protocol, status uncertain
Star Players to Watch
Patriots
- Drake Maye (QB): Poised and resilient; must stay efficient and avoid turnovers
- TreVeyon Henderson & Rhamondre Stevenson (RBs): Key to controlling tempo and clock
- Christian Gonzalez (CB): Can erase Denver’s top receiving threat
- Matthew Judon & Patriots front seven: Disrupting Stidham will define this matchup
Broncos
- Courtland Sutton (WR): Primary target and red-zone weapon
- Zach Allen (DE): Interior disruption to slow New England’s run game
- Nik Bonitto (LB): Must generate pressure on Maye to keep Denver competitive
- Pat Surtain II (CB): If he locks down one side, Denver’s defense gains flexibility
- Wil Lutz (K): A proven clutch leg in a game likely decided by margins
How Each Team Wins
Patriots Win If:
- They control time of possession and eliminate self-inflicted mistakes
- The pass rush forces Stidham into rushed decisions and turnovers
- They turn the game into a one-dimensional Denver offense
Broncos Win If:
- Stidham plays mistake-free football and sustains long drives
- Denver dominates the trenches and shortens the game
- Special teams or defensive takeaways flip momentum
Prediction
This shapes up as a tense, physical battle between two elite defenses. Denver’s loss of Bo Nix is simply too much to overcome at this stage, especially against a Patriots team playing this red hot. New England’s ability to pressure the quarterback, win the turnover battle, and control the clock ultimately proves decisive.
Final Score:
Patriots 23, Broncos 13
New England advances to Super Bowl LX, their first appearance since the 2019 season—when they defeated the Rams 13–3 to secure their sixth Lombardi Trophy.
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