Seattle, Wa. — Familiarity doesn’t soften this matchup — it sharpens it. Division rivals, cold air, and a betting line that reflects Seattle’s control of the rivalry right now. San Francisco enters riding the momentum of an upset over the defending champions, but the cost was steep: George Kittle is done for the season, and his absence reshapes everything.
Seattle has the bye, Lumen Field, and the luxury of playing this game on its terms. The 49ers’ path is narrow now — but it still exists. Kyle Shanahan can scheme games into the margins better than almost anyone. The problem is margin may no longer be enough.
Betting Lines (ESPN / DraftKings)
• Spread: Seahawks -7
• Moneyline: 49ers +280 | Seahawks -355
• Over/Under: 45.5
Resume Check
San Francisco just proved it can win a playoff game on the road, closing with a composed finish to knock out Philadelphia. But the win came at a heavy price. Kittle’s torn Achilles removes one of the league’s most impactful matchup weapons and strips Brock Purdy of one of his best answers against pressure and tight coverage.
Seattle has looked every bit like a No. 1 seed. Defense-first, efficient, and comfortable letting opponents blink first, the Seahawks thrive in games where patience matters. They also enter this matchup with confidence after a 13–3 win over San Francisco two weeks ago, a result that reinforced their ability to dictate terms. Now they get the rematch at home.
Injury Report Snapshot (ESPN)
49ers:
• TE George Kittle — out (season-ending Achilles injury)
• LB Fred Warner — on IR, hopeful to return after missing three months
• Questionable: Trent Williams, Ji’Ayir Brown, Ricky Pearsall, others
Seahawks:
• CB Riq Woolen — questionable (limited)
• DE DeMarcus Lawrence — questionable (limited)
Players to Watch
49ers:
Without Kittle, Purdy loses his most reliable safety valve downfield. That places added pressure on Christian McCaffrey, Shanahan’s run-game creativity, and receivers like Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall (if available) to win cleanly. If Trent Williams isn’t close to full strength, San Francisco’s entire protection scheme changes. A potential return from Fred Warner would be massive, injecting leadership and range into a defense that needs to play nearly perfect football.
Seahawks:
Seattle’s offense is balanced and confident. Sam Darnold has played within structure, supported by a physical backfield of Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III, and fueled by the league’s most productive wide receiver this season in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Defensively, Seattle can win by keeping everything in front and forcing long drives. Woolen’s availability dictates how aggressive they can be outside, while Lawrence’s status matters in tilting the pass-rush battle.
How Each Team Wins
49ers win if:
• They run efficiently and keep Purdy in manageable situations
• They steal a possession through turnovers or special teams
• They keep the game within one score into the fourth quarter
Seahawks win if:
• They turn Kittle’s absence into third-down stops
• They generate pressure without heavy blitzing
• They start fast and force San Francisco out of balance
Prediction
This is a rematch of a game Seattle controlled two weeks ago, winning 13–3 in Santa Clara. Now the script flips — the game shifts to Seattle, injuries loom larger, and the margins tighten even further for San Francisco.
Seattle has been consistent all season and is playing its best football at the right time. With the advantage of the 12th Man and a roster built to capitalize on mistakes, this matchup tilts heavily in their favor.
Seahawks 24, 49ers 10
Seattle advances to the NFC Championship Game, where it will host either Chicago or Los Angeles with a Super Bowl berth at stake.
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