ATLANTA — Alright folks, let’s dust off the chalkboard, and scribble out a new map for the 2025-26 College Football Playoff, entering conference championship weekend.
It’s about to get really fun. As wild as the coaching carousel has been the past few days, the playoff drama is in full swing, just as the TV Networks had hoped for.
It’s crunch time and seasons are on the line!
With the dust from Rivalry Week barely settled, there’s a mess of upsets, surprises, and deja-vu matchups that are about to scramble the top 12, plus coaching chaos throughout the nation. If I were calling the shots — and by “calling the shots,” I mean I’m Jackson Fryburger with a can of Red Bull and a borderline irrational love for chaos — here’s how I see the committee stacking the deck come Tuesday night, Week 15.
After you see my projections, which are my best guess as to what the committee will do, I’ll give you my own personal Top 12. Sound good?
🔮 My Week 15 Playoff Top 12 Projection for the Committee
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Oregon Ducks
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Texas Longhorns
- BYU Cougars
And yeah — the Group-of-Five slot likely goes to the Tulane Green Wave, assuming they take care of business this weekend and win the AAC, but it’s North Texas if the Mean Green win.
James Madison needs a win and a Virginia loss to feel safe.
Why This Order, and Why Some Teams Slide
Texas A&M drops from 3 to 6
That upset by Texas didn’t just sting — it upended the entire narrative around the Aggies. Suddenly their resume doesn’t sparkle like it did, and there are several teams with stronger closing arguments. Expect the committee to punish the loss harder than some fans realize, as the Aggies have fallen in the metrics for a few weeks now. They’re a lock to make the field and host a playoff game, but a bye feels far fetched.
Alabama jumps Notre Dame — even with two losses
Here’s the deal: I think the committee is tired of splitting hairs. With its size, pedigree, and a tough showdown upcoming against Georgia, Alabama has earned the benefit of the doubt over a Notre Dame squad whose strength of schedule and résumé still raise eyebrows. If Bama shows up and doesn’t get embarrassed Saturday, they’re a lock, based on what I think the committee will do.
Never underestimate Greg Sankey either. The best in the business.
Texas rockets back up to 11
That win over A&M lit a fire under the Longhorns’ playoff hopes — and if BYU stumbles in the Big 12 title game, Texas slides in in the final moments. Their path looks narrow but viable and far from dead.
What This Means for Other Teams
- Georgia and Alabama square off Saturday in the SEC title game — a likely bloodbath. Win or lose, both will need the committee’s mercy and margin control to punch their ticket and earn byes.
- Ohio State vs. Indiana in the Big Ten title game decides the top seed — but both are already locks thanks to spotless records and should have a bye locked up, too.
- Texas Tech vs. BYU opens the Big 12 title bout. A Tech win likely locks up a first-round bye. A BYU upset shakes up seeds 11 and 12 and causes chaos into Sunday.
- ACC drama looms: if the Virginia Cavaliers upset the Duke Blue Devils — or if something wild happens — the conference could get a spot, but that may elbow out a bubble team like Miami or even Texas.
- Group-of-Five scenarios: Tulane (or possibly another AAC contender) almost certainly grabs the automatic G5 bid, assuming they win their conference.
Final Word
If you asked me: this playoff field wouldn’t just reward the deserving team based on record, but rather those who closed strong, survived the storms, and didn’t fold under pressure. Ohio State and Indiana are nearly air-tight. Georgia, Texas Tech and Oregon ride momentum. A&M, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas, and BYU dance around chaos and hope the committee buys their stories.
It’s messy, it’s real, and it’s about to get nuclear. If I were ordering picks for a shooter’s bracket? This is where I’d put my money — but I’d be keeping some cash in the pocket for a wild weekend or two.
Let’s see who folds under pressure — and who rises when the lights get hot.
Now, for my rankings. Please note, this is what I would do if I were the committee, not what I think will happen.
🔮 My Personal Playoff Top 12
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Texas A&M Aggies
- Oregon Ducks
- Oklahoma Sooners (honoring head to head)
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Miami Hurricanes (honoring head to head)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Texas Longhorns
In my list, BYU would be No. 13 and Vanderbilt No. 14. I love the Vanderbilt story and I really wish there were a path, but there are too many 2-loss teams, plus Texas, who lost a one-score game in Columbus to No. 1 Ohio State and beat Vanderbilt, to bump the Commodores any higher.
I give BYU a fair shot to win their way in, despite a lack of wins, but hey, they’re in the conference title game.
I do not punish Texas much for their loss to Ohio State (and Georgia in Athens) and reward them for scheduling up.
All of this will play out in just a few minutes on ESPN, but there you have it. My projections for what will happen and what I hope happens.
I based my projections and analysis on all available data points, plus current Vegas odds. Closing lines on Vegas indicate Bama has likely hopped Notre Dame this week, which I expect the committee to base on A&M losing and the Syracuse win losing value, plus Bama running the ball, as silly as it sounds. Thanks to the Arkansas AD, of course.
At the time of writing, Alabama is a -950 favorite to make it, with Notre Dame at -400, Texas +590 and Miami +820. Now, what does this mean? If Vegas truly knows something here, it indicates Bama is a lock regardless of the BYU result, as long as Georgia doesn’t curb stomp the Tide in Atlanta.
Notre Dame would be in with a BYU loss, Texas and Miami still need some help.
I think Texas makes a massive leap, but still needs help. BYU is the wild card here, which shakes the final playoff rankings out. Let’s see how they handle Miami and Notre Dame.
Credit to the Canes, they closed strong to make this interesting.
Alright, time to watch the rankings! See you on the other side!
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College Football Viewing Guide, Week 15
