ATLANTA — Hold onto your helmets, folks — Week 12 of the 2025 college football season is shaping up for chaos, and I’m here to point out three teams that are firmly on upset alert. Yes, even the Blue-Blood names. Sure, we often bank on the favorites, but sometimes the jagged edges show up at the worst possible time. The teams I’m watching are the LSU Tigers, the Cincinnati Bearcats, and the Georgia Bulldogs. (And yes, I’ll mention the Virginia Cavaliers too — the Hoo’s are in major jeopardy this Saturday, but since Duke is favored by the oddsmakers, they don’t make my upset alert shortlist this week.)
LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
The spread: LSU favored by 5.5 points. Total points: 56.5.
LSU has the talent on paper — a top-20 scoring defense, home field in Tiger Stadium, and the prestige of the crimson and gold. But here’s the major red flag: their offense has been sputtering, the coaching crew looks shaky, and there’s real talk of a fractured locker room after the benching of Garrett Nussmeier and the unimpressive showing by Michael Van Buren last week in Tuscaloosa. Meanwhile Arkansas, awful record yes (2-7), brings a high-octane offense under Bobby Petrino and KJ Jefferson that can light up scoreboard like a Times Square billboard. The oddsmakers giving LSU only 5.5 points says: “This isn’t as safe as you think.” When public love is heavy on one side (here, the Tigers), historically the upset creeps in. I smell Badger-style danger in Baton Rouge — Razorbacks as the sneaky steal.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Home
Cincinnati enters at 7-2 overall, 5-1 in the Big 12. On the surface, they look like they’re back. But their resume hides cracks and Vegas knows it, favoring the Bearcats by under a touchdown at -6.5 on Saturday, with a total of 56.5. Remember the blowout loss on the road to Utah and the home loss to a mediocre Nebraska team. The analytics and ratings view a flawed roster—coaching inconsistencies, weak defense, and roster depth issues. Playing at home helps, but even homes have nightmares. If the Bearcats find themselves up against a well-rounded opponent on Saturday, we could be seeing a major “how did we lose that?” moment in Cincinnati. Upset alert lights flashing bright.
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns
The spread: Georgia favored by -5.5 points. Total points at 48.5.
You read that right — Georgia only 5.5-point home chalk in Athens against Texas. On film, Texas (7-2) is peaking at the right time: healthier roster, pass rush leading the nation with 34 sacks via Ethan Burke and Colin Simmons, new QB Arch Manning showing growth, and special teams revamped. Meanwhile Georgia (8-1) remains loaded but their sack output is a mere 11 on the season and their blitz rate dropped. The metrics say Texas has leverage. The Bulldogs will win? I lean that way — yes, I like Georgia to win — but this is no cakewalk between the hedges and will come down to the final plays. The upset window is sizable, even with the massive stakes in this one.
Also to watch: Virginia Cavaliers
While not making the top three, the Cavaliers (8-2) are on serious upset alert in their road trip to Duke, where oddsmakers favor the Blue Devils. Virginia’s playoff hopes hinge on this tilting ACC title aspiration. They’re on the bubble and a second conference loss in a row could derail everything. Keep an eye on the Hoo’s — they’re likely to be upset on Saturday, to a metric merchant in Duke. The Blue Devils may be 5-4, but they still have just 1 conference loss and the computer’s love them. Keep an eye on this one for ACC playoff bid ramifications.
Final whistle
Ladies and gentlemen, Week 12 is littered with “favorites” that look rattled. LSU could crumble at home versus a hungry Razorbacks offense. Cincinnati could trip up at home because the “resume” isn’t real yet. Georgia might win, but Texas brings firepower and edge that suggests this one will go down to the wire. This is exactly the kind of weekend where memes are made and bracket seeds change with the snap of a screen-look. Up next on the dark-horse express: Baylor at Utah and NC State at Miami — longshots with upside. Tune in, toss your pick sheets aside, and grab a front-row seat to chaos. Because in college football, the favorites sometimes forget the fundamentals — and the underdogs come to play.
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College Football Viewing Guide, Week 12
