STARKVILLE — If the ghosts of cowbells past and clanging goalposts could talk, they’d be whispering a single word this week: Wake-up. Because come Saturday morning, the under-dog hounds that are the Mississippi State Bulldogs will host the mighty Georgia Bulldogs in Davis Wade Stadium and, believe it or not, the stars might just be aligning for a shock.
The line? Mississippi State listed at +8.5 points. That alone reveals that Vegas knows something: this isn’t a lay-up for Georgia. The Miss State Bulldogs have played close, they’ve beaten Arizona State, and they’re built for a moment like this.
Georgia finds ways to win football games. Mississippi State usually does not. The lone exception? Alabama owns both programs.
When Georgia isn’t playing its boogeyman / kryptonite, it usually finds a way. However, Saturday might be different. The Dawgs have been dancing with danger all season long and lucky for Kirby Smart, it’s seemed to work.
That can’t happen on Saturday.
Let’s just get to the facts. It’s an 11 a.m. Central kickoff, a semi-empty bowl of fans and a team with nothing to lose against a team with playoff hopes on the line.
Georgia has a pesky “trap game” in Starkville sandwiched between a rivalry contest in Jacksonville with Florida and hosting Texas under the lights in Athens.
This game may not stand out to the casual eye due to Miss State’s record, but make no mistake, they are still a Top 45 team in America, rated No. 44 in Sagarin power ratings and playing at home.
Simulated metrics have Georgia by single digits this week, which should be a slight cause for concern, given how Georgia has played over the past month.
Here’s why Saturday could finally be the day a team other than Alabama knocks off the Bulldogs? Now, not to go full Josh Pate here, playing both sides so we look smart.
But… Georgia is due for another loss before the postseason. It’s coming, it’s just a matter of when.
Let’s set the scene: Mississippi State, under second-year head coach Jeff Lebby, has blown the doors off expectations. They’ve upset Arizona State, 24-20, in dramatic fashion—fans ripped down the goalposts, cowbells rang out, Starkville partied. They beat Arkansas on the road. They’ve battled through a brutal schedule and left no doubt about their march toward respectability, even in crushing losses. Their scoring offense hovers near 33.2 points per game according to advanced metrics, and they’ve limited opponents to 24.7 points per game. They’re still building, but make no mistake: they’re trending up.
Georgia, on the flip side, is a machine—until they’re not. The Dawgs sit at 7-1 overall, conference record 5-1, and they’re in the national top 10. But their splits tell a troubling tale. On the road or neutral site this season, Georgia allows about 351 yards per game, with a yards-per-play number of 5.46—both above their typical standards. At home they’ve been tighter. And here’s the rub: Georgia’s offense often starts slow, and Georgia tends to lean on the 4th quarter to bail itself out. It’s one thing to win; it’s another to coast early only to grit through late. That gives Mississippi State a real window of opportunity.
Now, the Bulldogs at Starkville know the value of close games. Each week they’ve taken early hits, but Lebby’s built a unit that fights. Whether it’s a one-score roast with Arkansas or a sweet upset over Arizona State, they’ve learned how to stay in it. With their passing game humming behind Blake Shapen, they’ve got a credible air attack. Georgia, despite its talent, has struggled defending the pass on the road and is banged up in secondary ranks. Match that with the early start and the crowd tipping toward the upset spirit, and you’ve got a recipe.
Let’s talk about the schedule factor. Mississippi State has faced one of the toughest slates in the SEC and still ranks near the Top 40 nationally in strength-of-schedule and in power rating metrics — they’ve earned every scrap and are beyond battle tested, facing every domino the SEC throws its way. Georgia, meanwhile, travels to Starkville for an 11 a.m. kickoff—prime environment for distractions, fatigue, and a home-crowd punch to the gut.
Hour of the day? Advantage the under-dog. And with playoff and SEC title hopes on the line next week (Texas comes to town), Georgia absolutely cannot afford to look past this one—or get caught flat.
In Starkville, the Bulldogs have built something under Lebby: energy, explosiveness, and genuine belief. They don’t need to scale Everest—they need to climb one more ridge. Their pass offense has produced over 2,255 yards through the air as a team, while limiting rushing yards allowed to 1,419 across their first nine games (or roughly 157 per game) in the same run span—showing balance and hunger.
Georgia’s defense, while very good at home in Athens, has shown cracks on the road: allowing 351 yards per game away from home is uncharacteristic for a team built to dominate every possession.
Make no mistake: Georgia enters as the favorite. But favorites in places like Starkville—early kickoff, fired-up under-dog, noise, home field advantage—have learned hard lessons. Mississippi State’s status as “nothing to lose” empowers them. They’ll throw everything at Georgia: blitzing, tempo, vertical passes, risky fourth-down tries. If Georgia starts flat, the shock might be real.
Georgia loves to spot inferior teams a lead early in games. The Bulldogs keep finding ways to escape a mess of their own creation, but Saturday could be the day that run of good luck comes to an end.
Mississippi State has all the ingredients on offense to give Kirby Smart’s team fits down Highway 82 in Starkville, a mere 80 miles from the infamous ‘Boogeyman’ that is the Alabama Crimson Tide, a program who has owned Georgia over the past decade and a half.
The Dawgs get to fly over Tuscaloosa, so there should be no ghosts seen on the way in to Davis Wade on Saturday, but make no mistake, this is not a gimme game for the red and black.
One can argue that Miss State should be 7-2 right now, still alive in the playoff race. Only they squandered late game leads to Tennessee and Texas, who crushed cowbell hearts in overtime.
But… Georgia cannot bank on having that good fortune themselves. Simply put, they have flirted with disaster far too often and have too many injuries to play with their food in Davis Wade.
This really could be the Saturday Kirby’s bunch goes down.
And if it is? Georgia’s playoff hopes don’t just wobble—they tilt. With Texas looming and a tough gauntlet ahead, a loss here could relegate the Dawgs to a mere “will they make the playoff?” conversation instead of “what playoff site will they be at?” discussion. For Mississippi State, a shock win would send cowbells into a frenzy, mark Lebby’s program as legit, and yank the narrative from hopeful to credible.
My pick: Coming later in the week! I keep going back and forth on this one, but one thing I do know is that it will be close! I am going to take Mississippi State to cover, but am still torn on the outright score.
The Dawgs look sluggish early, Mississippi State jumps on them with a pass-fire barrage, Georgia claws back, but the noise stays loud, the atmosphere heavy, as a monumental Saturday begins to take shape in the SEC.
Oh, and EasySportz will be there in the first leg of a doubleheader trip to Dixie!
We’re going to Starkville and Tuscaloosa on Saturday for some SEC football action and a plate full of BBQ.
Check back Friday for our game pick!
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College Football Viewing Guide, Week 11
