ATHENS, Ga. — The college basketball heads in Athens can already hear the rumble of the crowd at Stegeman Coliseum. On Friday night at 9 p.m., the 3-0 Georgia Bulldogs host their arch-rivals, the 3-0 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, in a game that is equal parts “Clean Old-Fashioned Hate” and total mismatch waiting to happen. With Georgia ranked 31st in KenPom (+20.13) and boasting an adjusted offensive efficiency ranked 31st and defensive efficiency ranked 37th, and Georgia Tech sitting 94th in KenPom (+8.54) with offense ranked 191st and a strong but thin defense rated 20th, the numbers say that one Bulldog juggernaut is about to chew up a sleeping Yellow Jacket. Let’s pull on our red and black, pop the popcorn and break down why Georgia should – and likely will – cover the opening spread of –13.5 and maybe win by 25 or so.
First off: Georgia is rolling. The Bulldogs have yet to win a game by less than 45 points this season and they eclipsed 100 points in two of their three games, including an explosive 120-81 rout of Morehead State at home. They shot 56 percent overall, drained 17 threes and forced 11 turnovers, showing that when this team is sharp, the scoreboard ignites. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is unbeaten but has looked… well… vulnerable. The Yellow Jackets dragged into overtime with Maryland Eastern Shore and had to fight to beat Southeastern Louisiana; not exactly the kind of tape that screams “stepping into the lion’s den in Athens.” Their adjusted offense ranking of 191st suggests they’re counting on defense, but that’s seldom enough when you’re facing a Bulldog team averaging triple-digit points and battering nets like it owes them money.
Now, for the rivalry spice. Yes, Georgia vs. Georgia Tech is historic, personal, and ugly in all the right ways. The crowd at Stegeman will be fired up — the students already imagining “Hate Week” chants and the general-admission swirl. That atmosphere adds another five-point wind in the sails for Georgia. But while the rivalry angle adds drama, the mismatch angle adds reality: Georgia is simply on a different tier right now.
Offensively, the Bulldogs have the balance and firepower to overwhelm. Defensively, they can rotate, challenge shots and rebound at a level Georgia Tech’s offense has yet to prove it can match. For the Yellow Jackets to cover, they’d need a perfect storm: Big defensive stops, efficient scoring, minimal turnovers, and coaxing Georgia into a sleepwalk. That has the smell of a miracle. Meanwhile, if Georgia plays to its standard, this will be more a wipe-out than a fight.
Betting line at –13.5? That almost feels generous to Georgia Tech. If this were just any non-conference game, I’d shove the Bulldogs by 30. Rivalry game? Maybe that margin shrinks a bit. Realistically though, Georgia covers easily, and at +20 or so in KenPom gap, win by 25 seems entirely plausible.
So, in this Georgia/Tech brew, expect the Bulldogs to dominate from tip to finish, the crowd to oscillate between entertainment and carnage, and the Yellow Jackets to fall into that “we survived cupcakes and now we face the big dawg” trap. Athens will be red, loud and relentless. Georgia goes off, covers the –13.5, and sends a message: this season is about them. And Georgia Tech? They’ll wake up Saturday wondering when their offense showed up. Buckle up. This one won’t be pretty for the Jackets—but it will be unforgettable for the Bulldogs.
Prediction: Georgia 93, Georgia Tech 68
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