The biggest week of the SEC slate is upon us, featuring 6 conference games that will go a long way into determining the conference race. All eyes will be on Fair Park in Dallas for the Red River Shootout, but Georgia and Alabama bookmark the Saturday with tough road tests. What are the keys to victory for each team? Who do we think wins? Let’s get into it.
Alabama at Missouri: 12:00 ET / 11:00 CT on ABC
Alabama wins if … they can stop the run. Missouri’s two running backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts could be a problem for a defense that gave up 227 rushing yards to Georgia and 135 rushing yards to Vanderbilt, each at around 7 yards per carry when factoring in attempts. Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts each average around 7 yards per carry and Ahmad Hardy leads the nation in rushing with 730 yards.
Missouri wins if … they can force Ty Simpson in trouble. Georgia did a bad job of putting pressure on Simpson, Florida State did a great job, and Vanderbilt was a mixed bag. Simpson threw his first pick of the season against Vanderbilt and was sacked 4 times after he was kept clean in Athens. Georgia transfer Damon Wilson leads the team and is 6th in the SEC in sacks with 3.5 on the young season. Kadyn Proctor will need to focus less on receiving yards and protecting his quarterback this week.
Our prediction: Alabama 27, Missouri 24
Washington State at Ole Miss: 12:45 ET / 11:45 CT on SEC Network
Ole Miss wins if … they literally show up. Although Washington State is better than their fellow conference nomad Oregon State, they have looked rough against North Texas and Washington. Ole Miss is leagues better than both of those teams. The Cougars, who are 114th in the nation in points scored and 101st in the nation in points given up, are no match for the Rebels
Our prediction: Ole Miss 49, Washington State 13
Oklahoma vs. Texas at the Cotton Bowl: 3:30 ET/ 2:30 CT on ABC
Oklahoma wins if … they win the turnover margin. With John Mateer questionable due to thumb surgery and Michael Hawkins proven to not look great against power 4 competition last year, Oklahoma will have to rely on their defense. Although they have created havoc with 21 sacks and 50 tackle for losses on the season, they have only 2 takeaways on the year. With Arch Manning’s 5 interceptions on the year, the Oklahoma defense can feast on the Texas offense even more if they turn their havoc into takeaway opportunities.
Texas wins if … Arch Manning complements the defense. This is a game that will require complementary football for Texas. Texas’s offense cannot put their defense into bad situations. Florida put up 457 yards on Texas last weekend but Texas’s longest offensive drive wasn’t even 3 minutes and the Gators controlled the time of possession. The Texas defense, led by Michael Taffe and Anthony Hill, will need their offense to complement them if they want to control the game and keep Mateer on the sidelines if healthy.
Our prediction: Oklahoma 20, Texas 13
Arkansas at Tennessee: 4:15 ET / 3:15 CT on SEC Network
Arkansas wins if … literally everything goes right for them. Taylen Green is a good quarterback, but the defense is porous and has been lit up by Ole Miss, Memphis, and Notre Dame. They will need Taylen Green to play almost perfect (70% completion percentage or more and no turnovers), and the defense to finally stop someone. The Hogs are ranked 112th nationally in points allowed and last in the SEC in yards allowed. However, in Tennessee’s overtime games, Joey Aguilar threw two picks each, and Arkansas will have to force turnovers to have a shot.
Tennessee wins if … they hold on to the ball. As mentioned above. Joey Aguilar threw two picks each in the Georgia loss and Mississippi State victory, both in overtime. However, he also threw for over 300 yards in each game. Tennessee’s prolific pass offense is probably no match for Arkansas’s defense. However, for Tennessee’s sake, they must hold on to the ball against a team with an interim coach and nothing to lose.
Our prediction: Tennessee 56, Arkansas 28
Florida at Texas A&M: 7:00 ET / 6:00 CT on ESPN
Florida wins if … last week’s DJ Lagway shows up. Lagway has had an up and down season so far, with 5 interceptions in Baton Rouge and only mustering up 61 passing yards in Miami. However, we saw right at 300 passing yards and a 75% completion percentage last week against Texas. It’s not comforting to see a QB with the same number of touchdowns as interceptions go on the road, but if Florida’s defense can continue to look stout, a good, locked in Lagway can cause problems for an Aggie defense that is 13th in the conference in points allowed per game and is “middle of the pack” statically in the conference.
Texas A&M wins if … the offense from the second half of the Miss State game shows up. Texas A&M only led 7-3 at the half against Miss State, with only 182 total yards and a turnover on downs. However, A&M turned on the jets in the second half with 298 total yards and four straight scoring drives (3 touchdowns, 1 field goal). If Marcel Reed can get the ball past a stout Florida front seven, wide receiver duo Mario Craver and KC Concepcion can make big plays while running back duo Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens, alongside Reed’s legs, can keep the Aggies offense on the field.
Our prediction: Texas A&M 28, Florida 17
Georgia at Auburn: 7:30 ET / 6:30 ET on ABC
Georgia wins if … they don’t turn the ball over. Georgia had two turnovers against Tennessee, a costly fumble against Alabama, and Gunner Stockton threw his first interception of the year against Kentucky. Tennessee and Alabama each got points off of those turnovers, and Georgia could easily have two losses due to those turnovers. Jordan-Hare at night will be difficult, but if Georgia is more disciplined with the ball, the Stockton-led offense is good enough to control the time of possession and move the ball, keeping the crowd at bay. The offense will have to lead on Chauncey Bowens at running back who had 119 yards against Alabama and 70 against Kentucky, and the playmaking duo of Zachariah Branch and Colbie Young at wide receiver.
Auburn wins if … Jackson Arnold gets the best of Georgia’s defense. Although the linebackers at UGA are elite, led by CJ Allen, Raylen Wilson, and Chris Cole, the pass rush and the secondary have not been. Ty Simpson and Cutter Boley had their best day of the season against the Dawgs, and Jackson Arnold can easily do the same. The Georgia d-line and Auburn o-line were described to me as a “stoppable force vs. movable object,” but if the o-line can give Arnold time and he gets rid of the ball sooner, Georgia’s secondary probably can’t contain Eric Singleton and Cam Coleman every play. This could result in some big plays which builds momentum for Auburn and could flip field position on a dime.
Our prediction: Georgia 28, Auburn 21
South Carolina at LSU: 7:45 ET / 6:45 ET on SEC Network
South Carolina wins if … their offense takes advantage of any defensive momentum. South Carolina’s offense has not been great this year, averaging only 308.6 yards per game, which is 127th nationally and last in the SEC. However, they have a defense that can match up well with the LSU offense. Dylan Stewart is a stud in the defensive front, and the Gamecocks are 16th in the nation in turnover margin at +5. If the defense can rustle up Nuss, the offense must take advantage of it, something Florida couldn’t do.
LSU wins if … offense is just a tad better than it has been. LSU’s defense led by defensive coordinator Blake Baker and the Weeks brothers at linebacker leads the SEC and is 6th in the nation in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game, but the offense ranks 84th in the nation, and just above offensively struggling teams Florida, Auburn, and Kentucky. However, LSU;s offensive struggles kept Clemson and Florida in the game, however, they played Ole Miss tough and had a chance towards the end in large part due to their defense. If offense keeps their side of the bargain, the Gamecocks should be held at bay in Death Valley.
Our prediction: LSU 34, South Carolina 14
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