CINCINNATI — Thursday night’s AFC North showdown at Paycor Stadium brings something rare: two grizzled vets under center, high stakes, and a division race hanging by threads. The Pittsburgh Steelers (4–1, 1–0 division) visit the Cincinnati Bengals (2–4, 1–0 division) in a game many will treat as a litmus test.
The odds favor Pittsburgh: the Steelers are installed as 4.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 44.5. The reasoning is obvious — Rodgers, defense, steadier metrics. But in this league, weird things happen on Thursday nights, especially in division games, and especially when the home team has star receivers and a fan base desperate for redemption.
Veterans, Vettery, and the “Battle of UNC” Narrative
The narrative is irresistible: Aaron Rodgers, age 41, in his one last hurrah, wearing black & gold in Pittsburgh; Joe Flacco, age 40, now pushing buttons in Cincy after Burrow’s toe injury. Rodgers’ career is obviously more storied — multiple MVPs, all-time passing records, highlight reel after highlight reel — but Flacco has paid his dues in a dozen jerseys and playoff runs. Both still find ways to get the most out of what remains in their arms and minds.
So far in 2025, Rodgers has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 1,021 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He carries a passer rating north of 100 and has shown surprising rhythm in his new environs. Flacco’s numbers lag: 1,034 yards, 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a QBR near 33.6. The comparisons favor Rodgers — but stats don’t always tell the story when house noise, desperation, and rivalry heat get injected.
Cincinnati’s gamble on Flacco has already shown flashes. In his Bengals debut, he managed a solid passer rating and avoided turnovers. He hasn’t dazzled, but he’s provided some stability compared to Browning’s inconsistent stints. The bigger question: can Zac Taylor tailor his game plan to his new quarterback? Can he avoid forcing throws or collapsing under pressure? And can he lean on his star receivers — Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — often enough to offset Pittsburgh’s strength on defense?
The Steel Curtain, the Glooms, and Glass Houses
Pittsburgh’s defense remains a dagger. In Sunday’s 23–9 win over Cleveland, Rodgers threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns while the defense blanked the Browns in the red zone. The Browns couldn’t muster a touchdown the entire night. That kind of performance is what makes Steelers fans confident tonight. Also worth noting: Rodgers recently tied Brett Favre for fourth all-time in touchdown throws, hitting 508. It’s one more weapon in his vintage arsenal.
But Rodgers hasn’t been bulletproof. He’s been pressured frequently — his completion rate under pressure drops alarmingly low. He’s also shown he can be baited into risky throws when routes are held too long. If Cincinnati’s defense can force him into third-and-longs, force checkdowns, and mix coverages, they might rattle him.
Pittsburgh’s run game has been middling, and their wide receiver corps—DK Metcalf, others—is still in renovation. If Pittsburgh doesn’t find rhythm in the trenches, this could become a one-dimensional slog.
Rivalry Bloodlines & Prime Time Scars
This matchup has history. Think back to the 2015 wild card game — Vontaze Burfict’s hits, the moral outrage, the revenge narratives. Think of JuJu Smith-Schuster leveling Burfict later, or Carson Palmer’s playoff injury at the hands of the Steelers. Pittsburgh has owned this rivalry historically. But, in recent seasons, Cincinnati has clawed back, earning splits and confidence.
Tonight will also be measured in moments — a contested third-down, a hidden penalty, a late turnover. Thursday primes those narratives like no other night.
Prediction & Projection: Bengals Steal One
I’m calling it: Cincinnati wins 23–20 on a late Evan McPherson field goal. The script: Bengals control the clock when possible, mix in short passes, use Chase Brown to chew time, stay balanced. Taylor avoids hero-ball throws with Flacco, as Al Golden’s defense keeps the orange and black in the ballgame. Golden’s defense schemes pressure zones, double-reads, and spies to force Rodgers from comfort.
The keys:
- Get the ball to Chase and Higgins in 1-on-1s.
- Force Rodgers into longer passes.
- Protect Flacco and avoid turnover catastrophes.
- Use crowd energy — this will be loud, with chili smells and Graeter’s ice cream, plus Miller Lite intoxication in full effect.
- Don’t let Pittsburgh get into rhythm or use time-of-possession dominance.
All signs — stats, narrative, Vegas — nudge toward Pittsburgh. But Cincinnati is overdue. Talent is there, energy is there, and desperation is there. If the Bengals pull this off, Zac Taylor might march over to Mt. Lookout Tavern with a game ball and a grin. Yinzer hearts might break tonight. This is AFC North football doing what it does best: drama, grit, and upset whispers in the dark.
Prediction: Bengals 23, Steelers 20, UNDER 44.5
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