ATLANTA — Thursday night in college football is turning into the new Friday — and for Week 7, the slate is loaded. Thursday is a nice little appetizer of ball, while Friday has a few intriguing Power 4 games a week.
It seems no Power 4 team wants to go up against the NFL anymore and for good season. This week, we lumped our Thursday predictions and previews into one data-filled post.
Games are kicking off soon, so… Without further ado, let’s get to it.
Four games headline the midweek package: Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State, East Carolina @ Tulane, Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston, and Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern. All but the Jacksonville State–Sam Houston matchup will air on ESPN platforms; that one kicks off on CBS Sports Network.
Expect fireworks, surprises, and enough analytics to make your brain hurt — but also some good old-fashioned grit and chaos.
We’ll lean on the Sagarin subtraction method (with a 4.99-point home-field bump) and Vegas lines to guide our picks. After all, we already picked the Owls over the Bulldogs earlier — we’re sticking to it. Let’s dig into the matchups.
Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State
- Line / O/U: Louisiana Tech –4.5, 45.5
- Sagarin: La Tech — 67.54 (78th); Kennesaw — 54.08 (153rd)
- Adjusted (with 4.99 HFA): Kennesaw effective 59.07 → margin: 67.54 – 59.07 = 8.47 in favor of Louisiana Tech
What to watch: Louisiana Tech comes in with a balanced attack. Through five games, the Bulldogs average 28.0 points per game while holding opponents to just 13.6. Their rushing game has produced 875 yards, while the passing unit has completed 72 of 112 attempts with just two picks. It’s efficient, not flashy — but effective.
Kennesaw State, led by Jerry Mack, continues to rise as a program. Their physicality on defense and tempo on offense have quietly put the Owls ahead of where many expected in their first FBS season. They’ll need to pressure La Tech’s quarterback and force turnovers to stay in this one.
Using Sagarin’s math, Tech is roughly an eight-point favorite, but Vegas has it closer, as the line closes, the closer we get to kickoff. We’re sticking with our preseason gut: Kennesaw State upsets Louisiana Tech by 3 in a gritty, low-scoring fight that sends shockwaves through C-USA.
Prediction: KSU 27, LA Tech 24.
East Carolina @ Tulane
- Line / O/U: Tulane –6.5, 53.5
- Sagarin: ECU — 71.04 (67th); Tulane — 72.99 (55th)
- Adjusted (with 4.99 HFA): Tulane effective 77.98 → margin: 77.98 – 71.04 = 6.94 in favor of Tulane
What to watch: East Carolina has been a rollercoaster — flashes of brilliance mixed with head-scratching lulls. Their offense can stretch the field but struggles with consistency on third down.
Tulane, under Jon Sumrall, remains one of the most disciplined Group of Five teams in the country. The Green Wave’s defense thrives on limiting chunk plays, and their balanced offense has quietly kept them near the top of the American in efficiency.
Sagarin and Vegas align here — about a touchdown edge for the home team. Tulane’s experience and depth should prevail late.
Pick: Tulane by 10 at home, total in the low-50s.
Prediction: Tulane 31, East Carolina 21
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston
- Line / O/U: Jacksonville State –6.5, 54.5
- Sagarin: Jax State — 58.87 (120th); Sam Houston — 47.16 (194th)
- Adjusted (with 4.99 HFA): Sam Houston effective 52.15 → margin: 58.87 – 52.15 = 6.72 in favor of Jacksonville State
What to watch: Rich Rodriguez is long gone, but the Jacksonville State Gamecocks have become a tough out. They play fast, they run heavy, and their defense has a knack for forcing timely turnovers. The Gamecocks have already proven they can hang with the upper half of C-USA and are quietly one of the most physical teams in the league.
Sam Houston, meanwhile, is still trying to find its identity in its second FBS season. The Bearkats’ defense has been stretched thin, giving up 32 points per game, while the offense hasn’t quite found a rhythm behind an inconsistent passing attack.
This one feels like a classic Thursday grinder — slow first half, fireworks late. With the Sagarin edge around a touchdown, the line feels right.
Pick: Jacksonville State by 7, total hovering around 55.
Prediction: Jax State 31, Sam Houston St. 24.
Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern
- Line / O/U: Southern Miss –3.5, 59.5
- Sagarin: Southern Miss — 62.95 (100th); Georgia Southern — 61.30 (107th)
- Adjusted (with 4.99 HFA): Georgia Southern effective 66.29 → margin: 66.29 – 62.95 = 3.34 in favor of Georgia Southern
What to watch: Southern Miss under Charles Huff is finally turning the corner. The Golden Eagles’ rushing attack — led by Jeffery Pittman (206 yards, 4 TDs) — has been steady, and wideout Carl Chester has emerged as a reliable downfield target.
Georgia Southern counters with offensive flash. RB OJ Arnold has racked up 309 yards on 6.2 yards per carry, and WR Camden Brown provides the explosive element. The Eagles can score, but they’ve given up nearly 37 points per game — that’s the glaring weakness.
Sagarin actually gives the Eagles a slight edge when home field is added, even though Vegas favors Southern Miss.
Pick: Georgia Southern by 4, total in the upper-50s.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 31, Southern Miss 27
Final Thoughts & Summary Lines
Thursday night’s four-game lineup might not have playoff implications, but it’s pure college football chaos — and we love that. ESPN and CBS are serving up a buffet of Group of Five brawls where everything from home-field quirks to tempo to turnover luck could flip outcomes.
Here’s how the math and our gut line up:
| Game | Pick | Margin | Total Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Tech @ Kennesaw State | Kennesaw State | +3 (Upset) | ~51 |
| ECU @ Tulane | Tulane | –10 | ~52 |
| Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston | Jacksonville State | –7 | ~55 |
| Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern | –4 | ~58 |
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