Las Cruces, N.M. — If you’re a casual fan, you’ll probably be scrolling elsewhere. But for the CFB sickos and weekend degenerates who live and breathe midweek oddities, Thursday night’s Sam Houston State-at-New Mexico State tilt is pure catnip. It’s the only FBS game on the docket Thursday night; no distractions, no competing marquee matchups — just two beleaguered programs slugging it out on CBS Sports Network so the rest of us can flip back and forth with Seahawks vs. 49ers in the bottom corner.
ESPN has the potential Game 3’s of the Wild Card round for baseball. We have the football covered.
Records, Rankings & Reputations
Sam Houston State enters this matchup at 0-4, and 0-1 in Conference USA, clinging to hope more tenuously than a freshman class at a party. New Mexico State, meanwhile, is 2-2, also 0-1 in CUSA, desperately seeking validation in its home digs. Nationally, the Sagarin ratings aren’t showing mercy: SHSU sits at 174th in the country (yes, behind some FCS programs), while NMSU is 179th.
The power ratings are nearly a wash — Bearkats at 50.72, Aggies at 50.28 — and when you factor in a 5.14-point home-field swing in favor of New Mexico State, the Sagarin subtraction method gives a neutral-field spread favoring SHSU by about 0.44 points. But on the road? That flips it: the line moves toward NMSU, which leaves us wondering why Vegas lists SHSU as 2.5-point favorites on the road, with an Over / Under of 52.5.
Translation: sportsbook and analytics camps aren’t wildly divorced, but this game is in that fuzzy “could go either way, ugly, don’t blink” zone.
Our best advice? Don’t put much money on it!
You don’t want to blow your bankroll on a game you probably won’t even watch, right?
What to Know (and What to Expect)
We don’t have a lot of linebackers dunking or highlight reels waiting to be baked in this one — these are not glamor programs in 2025. The Bearkats have looked particularly brittle in offense and depth. Their leading passer, Hunter Watson, has thrown for 396 yards so far this season. The ground game is equally underwhelming, and overall SHSU’s team stats are lean to the negative side.
On the Aggies side, quarterback Logan Fife has delivered more reliably: 1,017 passing yards and 5 touchdowns through Week 4. NMSU can air it out (262.8 yards per game, 43rd nationally) but is pitiful on the ground (39.3 rushing yards per game, 136th). Defensively, the Aggies have looked better than SHSU in many matchups — notably, in their recent game vs. New Mexico, Fife was 20-of-37 for 255 yards and a pick.
So what to expect? Probably a stodgy outing: lots of three-and-outs, field position scrambles, penalties, perhaps a “defense gets flagged, offense doesn’t score” drive or two. If one team gets hot midway, that could decide it. SHSU needs big plays from Watson and his receivers; if NMSU’s front can pressure, they might tilt the line of scrimmage. Special teams could matter — a missed field goal or shanked punt might make or break this kind of ugly fight.
A Little Trash Talk (Friendly, of Course)
Let’s be honest: these two programs have been hammered by the twin guillotines of NIL and transfer portal churn. The Bearkats haven’t recaptured their 2021 “spring ball COVID natty” magic. The Aggies are still reeling from Jerry Kill’s departure and the fallout of Diego Pavia transferring to Vanderbilt. Both have been left gasping for identity in the mid-tier chaos of CUSA. Tonight is for those of us who don’t care about aesthetics — we care about scrub-level heroics, grit, and the sheer weird joy of watching two programs claw for respect.
So tune in to CBS Sports Network (if your cable box still carries it), crack a cold one (or three), and enjoy the kind of game that only the most committed CFB weirdos will have on full volume, not muted in the corner behind your NFL pick’em matchup.
Prediction Time
Given the Sagarin math, the home-field swing, and the line, I lean to New Mexico State pulling this out at home — by a field goal in a scrappy affair.
The Aggies have a few injuries, but when you’re 174th and 179th in power rating, who even really cares?
Neither one of these teams is good enough to impose its will on a football game, that’s for darn sure.
Prediction:
New Mexico State 27, Sam Houston State 24.
And yeah — take the under (I’ve go 51.5) — but don’t hold me to it (we’re not betting; we just ride the chaos).
UNDER 52.5
Anyways, the Week 6 slate has nothing on Week 5. But in the world of college football, you just never know.
Tune in if you get tired of baseball, why not?
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