Midweek Chaos: Grit, Underdogs, and Mad Scientists
If college football were the MCU, these two games Wednesday are the indie spin-offs: lower budget, fewer superheroes, but maybe more fun if the script flips. We’ve got Delaware vs. Jacksonville State and UTEP vs. Sam Houston State. Both CUSA matchups. Both underdogs with a shot at something sweet. Both likely to push us to update our group chat memes.
Lines are tight: Delaware is road favorite at -2.5 over Jacksonville State (O/U 57.5); UTEP is also -2.5 on the road vs Sam Houston State (O/U 47.5). Our mission: use Sagarin subtraction + the home bump (+4.63), check in with data, analytics and stat sites, maybe dig up a funny X.com quote or two, then predict these games. We’re steaming ahead picking Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State to win as underdogs. Also we think both tops will hit under the totals.
Game 1: Jacksonville State (home) vs. Delaware (road)
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Delaware -2.5 | O/U: 57.5
Sagarin: Delaware 113th (60.47), Jacksonville State 129th (57.70)
Math & Margin
Sagarin diff = 60.47 − 57.70 = 2.77.
Home-field bump +4.63 = ~+1.86 for Jacksonville State.
So according to this, JSU should be favored by about 2 in a neutral world. But Vegas has Delaware by ~2.5 on the road. Small discrepancy. That means bettors should at least consider JSU. Models we’ve seen tend to treat this as very even, maybe tilting to JSU because tight games at home often favor the host in CUSA.
What the tape tells us
- Delaware’s offense is solid but not elite. Over five games they’re averaging about 424 yards total offense, mixing pass and run decently. Their scoring average is ~29.6 points per game. Defense is decent but gives up yards too often. Their red-zone and third-down conversions are better than many in their bracket. They’re not CUSA’s juggernaut but they show up. Stats: About 278.6 passing yards per game, 145.8 rushing yards per game. Sports Reference
- Jacksonville State relies heavily on the run game, clock control, and more physical play. Their offense is less flashy; they’re not going to launch bombs every drive. Defense has vulnerabilities especially when facing multiple reps, but at home they tend to make louder mistakes less often.
On X.com, people are talking JSU crowd energy, especially late in the 2nd quarter and into the half. Some Delaware fans are concerned about travel + short week rhythm.
Prediction
Because Sagarin leans JSU once you add home field, and due to the psychological & physical advantages of playing at home midweek, I think Jacksonville State edges this out. It probably won’t be a shootout; both teams can score, but not with consistency or speed. Under 57.5 feels safe.
Estimated final: Jacksonville State 24, Delaware 21
Pick: JSU +2.5 | Under 57.5
Game 2: Sam Houston State (home) vs. UTEP (road)
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET / 6:00 p.m. CT, CBS Sports Network
Line: UTEP -2.5 | O/U: 47.5
Sagarin: UTEP 155th (52.59), Sam Houston State 191st (47.74)
Math & Margin
Sagarin diff = 52.59 − 47.74 = 4.85.
Add +4.63 home = +9.48 for Sam Houston State.
So the model thinks Sam Houston should be almost a 9-10 point favorite at home. Vegas has it reversed slightly. That’s a loud alarm bell for someone who bets or picks; it suggests either the public overvalues UTEP, or the market hasn’t caught up.
Stats & Story
- UTEP is not terrible defensively but their offense has been a mess — inconsistent passing, weak running, poor third down conversion, bad red zone efficiency. They average about 316 yards per game, scoring just under 19 points, while giving up more. Time of possession is low; penalties and turnovers show up. UTEP Miners+1
- Sam Houston State has one of the worst defensive numbers in FBS this season, especially vs. the pass and explosive plays. Their offense hasn’t lit up many scoreboards either. But home matters. The crowd, shorter travel, even familiarity with field conditions becomes more than just talk in late October. Also, UTEP getting starts from Malachi Nelson has gotten press, but Nelson’s stats show risk: interceptions, inconsistency, not many explosive runs. WTOP News
There are posts on X lamenting UTEP’s inability to finish in the red zone. Sam Houston fans are making fun of how UTEP has so often stalled in the fourth quarter. There’s a sense that UTEP’s ceiling this year looks painfully mediocore unless things click soon.
Prediction
Given the model margin heavily favoring Sam Houston, plus UTEP’s offensive struggles (especially away, midweek), I think Sam Houston State pulls off the upset. It won’t be pretty. It won’t be high scoring. Under 47.5 is my lean.
Estimated final: Sam Houston State 20, UTEP 17
Pick: SHSU +2.5 | Under 47.5
Final Table & Reality Check
| Game | Sagarin-Projected Margin (with Home Field) | Vegas Spread | Pick | Score Estimate | Under/Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JSU vs. Delaware | JSU by ~2 | Delaware -2.5 | Jacksonville State | 24-21 JSU | Under 57.5 |
| SHSU vs. UTEP | SHSU by ~9.5 | UTEP -2.5 | Sam Houston State | 20-17 SHSU | Under 47.5 |
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