Preview: Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee State
Conference USA – Wednesday Night, Week 7
MURFREESBORO — Midweek football is back, baby. Not for the first time ever, of course, but for the first time this season — and in a stretch that promises nearly 100 straight hours of live sports across college and pro levels, it matters. By the time we hit Thanksgiving weekend, every channel will be churning — NFL, CFB, NBA tipoffs, NHL returns, postseason baseball — but Wednesday night’s game between Missouri State (2–3, 0–1 CUSA) and Middle Tennessee (1–4, 0–1 CUSA) in Murfreesboro may be the unsung spark.
For both teams, this is more than just a midweek clash. It’s a reset button, a chance to claw back from stumbles, a moment to show that they still belong in this Conference USA shake‑up. The Bears want to prove their 2–3 mark underrates them; the Blue Raiders need to show signs of life before the rest of CUSA runs them over. Add in a dash of home‑field adjustment, small edges, matchup quirks, and an analytics-based twist via Sagarin — and we’ve got a fun, sloppy, compelling Wednesday night brew.
Season Context & Team Profiles
Missouri State Bears (2–3, 0–1)
Missouri State is in its first year in Conference USA, led by Ryan Beard. Their season so far has featured tight wins and ugly losses. Offensively, the Bears average about 21.6 points per game and total around 371 total yards per game against lighter competition, but dip when defenses tighten. Defensively, they surrender about 31.6 points per game. Against the run, they’ve shown flashes but also vulnerability in gap control and tackling in space.
Red zone efficiency is a bright spot: Missouri State posts an 85.7% completion rate in the red zone, which ranks among the top nationally in that category. That’s a knife the Bears hope to carry into this matchup. Middle Tennessee’s “yards per play” is a glaring weakness, which Missouri State should try to exploit. MTSU’s 4.2 yards per play is among the lowest in Division I for the season.
Their key offensive weapon is QB Jacob Clark, with supporting backs like Shomari Lawrence and receivers such as D. Luke. Clark has thrown 8 touchdowns and 6 interceptions across 88 completions in 135 attempts. Defensively, the Bears rely on strong linebacker play (e.g., K. Young) and pressure off the edges, averaging roughly 3.8 sacks per game.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1–4, 0–1)
MTSU has endured a rough opening stretch, losing to Austin Peay, Wisconsin, Marshall, and Kennesaw State, with a lone win over Nevada. Their offense leans heavily on QB Nicholas Vattiato, who has mobility and flashes but is inconsistent. Receivers like Nahzae Cox carry much of the load.
Defensively, MTSU has been gashed on explosive plays and struggles in the red zone. They allow big second-level gains and have poor third-down defense. Their 4.2 yards per play is among the worst in FBS. The Blue Raiders also give up more points late in games, creating an opportunity for opponents to pull away in the fourth quarter.
The Sagarin Subtraction Method & Home-Field Twist
We lean on Sagarin ratings as a baseline. For 2025, Missouri State is 136th at 56.20, and Middle Tennessee is 181st at 49.22. The raw difference: 56.20 – 49.22 = 6.98 points favoring Missouri State on a neutral field.
Applying our home-field adjustment of +4.99 to MTSU, the effective rating becomes:
- Missouri State: 56.20
- Middle Tennessee: 49.22 + 4.99 = 54.21
Adjusted margin: 56.20 – 54.21 = 1.99 points for Missouri State. According to our subtraction method, this is essentially a coin flip — but still a lean toward the Bears. Execution, turnovers, and situational play will ultimately determine the winner.
Matchup Nuggets & Keys
- Red zone edge: Missouri State is more efficient; MTSU gives up chunk plays. If the Bears convert touchdowns, the game tilts.
- Third downs matter: MSU’s defensive scheme must dare MTSU to beat them instead of surrendering explosive plays.
- Tempo & play-action: MSU should mix snap tempo, use play-action when MTSU overreacts, and sprinkle in screens or RPOs to keep edge defenders honest.
- Turnovers & special teams: In a close midweek game, a fumble, interception, or blocked punt could flip momentum.
- Clock management: MTSU needs sustained drives to keep MSU’s offense off the field, but both teams struggle with consistency.
Fun stat: Despite hosting, MTSU is 0–2 at home so far, which means the +4.99 home-field bump may be optimistic.
Prediction
Sagarin-adjusted, MSU still has a narrow edge. With red zone discipline, slightly better defense, and opportunistic play, Missouri State will win by 7. MTSU may mount a late push, keeping it close until the fourth quarter, but MSU’s balance and execution will prevail.
Final Score Prediction: Missouri State 28, Middle Tennessee 21.
UNDER 49.5 (do not bet this)
Wednesday night’s kickoff may not get primetime shine, but in a week of unrelenting sports, this one will have its moments.
If you’re a college football sicko like us, tune in! There’s nothing on the line for the general public, but it’s football on a Wednesday!
Check Out All EasySportz College Football Content Here!
College Football Viewing Guide, Week 7!
