Preview: Liberty vs. UTEP – Week 7 Showdown in El Paso
EL PASO — Welcome to the inaugural Wednesday night college football games of the 2025 season, where two struggling Conference USA teams — Liberty and UTEP — collide under the lights of the Sun Bowl. With both teams sporting a 1–4 overall record and 0–1 in conference play, this matchup offers more than just a chance to snap losing streaks; it’s an opportunity to reignite pride and set the tone for the remainder of the season.
In the meantime, check out our preview of the other Wednesday Night Game! Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee State preview can be found here!
As the first midweek college football game of the year, this contest marks the beginning of a thrilling stretch where football graces our screens every day of the week through Thanksgiving weekend. From NFL primetime showdowns to college football clashes and postseason baseball, it’s a sports fan’s paradise. And it all kicks off with this intriguing matchup between the Flames and the Miners.
Team Profiles and Season Overview
Liberty Flames (1–4, 0–1 CUSA)
Under the guidance of head coach Jamey Chadwell, Liberty has faced a challenging start to the season. Despite a potent offense, the Flames have struggled to find consistency. Quarterback Ethan Vasko leads the team with 763 passing yards and six touchdowns, while running back Evan Dickens has contributed 344 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Wide receiver Donte Lee Jr. has been a reliable target, amassing 261 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
However, Liberty’s defense has been porous, allowing an average of 23.2 points per game. The Flames have shown flashes of brilliance but have yet to put together a complete performance.
UTEP Miners (1–4, 0–1 CUSA)
The Miners, led by second-year head coach Scotty Walden, have also encountered difficulties this season. Quarterback Malachi Nelson has thrown for 1,142 yards and multiple touchdowns, while running back Hahsaun Wilson has rushed for 205 yards. Wide receiver Kenny Odom has been a standout, recording 247 receiving yards.
Defensively, UTEP has allowed an average of 26.6 points per game. Despite their struggles, the Miners have shown resilience and will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage.
Sagarin Subtraction Method Analysis
Utilizing the Sagarin ratings, Liberty is currently ranked 117th with a rating of 59.54, while UTEP is ranked 145th with a rating of 55.22. The raw difference between the two teams is:
59.54 (Liberty) – 55.22 (UTEP) = 4.32 points
Applying the standard home-field advantage adjustment of +4.99 points for UTEP, the adjusted ratings become:
Liberty: 59.54
UTEP: 55.22 + 4.99 = 60.21
Adjusted margin: 59.54 (Liberty) – 60.21 (UTEP) = -0.67 points
This analysis suggests a near-even matchup, with UTEP holding a slight edge due to the home-field advantage.
Keys to the Game
Liberty’s Offensive Balance: The Flames must establish a balanced offensive attack, utilizing both the passing prowess of Vasko and the ground game led by Dickens. This dual-threat approach can keep UTEP’s defense on its heels.
UTEP’s Defensive Resilience: The Miners need to tighten their defense, particularly in the secondary, to limit big plays and force Liberty into third-and-long situations.
Turnover Battle: Both teams have struggled with turnovers this season. Winning the turnover battle will be crucial in determining the outcome of this game.
Special Teams Play: Special teams can often be the difference in close games. A big return or a timely field goal could swing momentum in favor of either team.
Prediction
Considering the Sagarin ratings and the home-field advantage, this game is expected to be closely contested. Liberty’s offense has the potential to exploit UTEP’s defensive vulnerabilities, while the Miners will rely on their home crowd to propel them to victory.
In a game with the Vegas spread at (-1.5) in favor of the Flames, with an over/under of 47.5, I’m going to go with the home team.
Liberty lost its quarterback to the portal and is downright awful this season. Let’s roll with the Miners at home. They already played Texas, so they have been tested.
Why not? The Miners get it done in the historic Sun Bowl, one of the best backdrops in college football.
Final Score Prediction: UTEP 24, Liberty 21
UNDER 47.5
In a game that could go either way, UTEP’s slight edge at home and the need to rebound from a tough season will give them the motivation needed to secure a narrow victory.
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