CINCINNATI — If the Big 12 is a traveling circus, then Saturday’s noon showdown at Nippert Stadium feels like a clash between two of the league’s most entertaining acts: Iowa State (5-0), the undefeated Cyclones from corn country, and Cincinnati (3-1), the pesky Bearcats who live on a steady diet of Skyline Chili and skepticism.
On one sideline you’ve got Iowa State, 5–0 and carrying the hopes of a fan base that treats football Saturdays in Ames like the State Fair, minus the butter cow, but with plenty of Busch Light. On the other sideline, Cincinnati — 3–1 and one Skyline three-way away from embracing their role as the Big 12’s loudest urban rep. This is the beauty of the conference’s new lineup: corn ethanol vs. chili spaghetti, two food groups that should never mix but somehow make perfect sense on a football Saturday.
This isn’t just quirky regional flair, though. This is a legitimate Big 12 table-setter. Both teams are unbeaten in conference play, meaning the winner gets a leg up in the race for Arlington while the loser starts to feel the squeeze of a crowded league. And in a season where Texas and Oklahoma are long gone, every win for programs like these helps define the new Big 12 pecking order.
Culture Clash: Ames vs. Cincy
Iowa State fans love nothing more than to tailgate until the ethanol tanks are dry and then cheer like they’ve got a stake in every third-down stop. They’ve been the lovable underdog for so long that winning five straight has them feeling like they accidentally wandered into the role of Big 12 heavyweight. Think “Field of Dreams,” except instead of Kevin Costner building a ballpark, it’s Matt Campbell piecing together a football contender in the middle of nowhere.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, thrives on edge. Nippert Stadium is nestled right in campus chaos — students spill into the bleachers from dorms like it’s a block party, and somehow, it works. The Bearcats are like that friend who swears Skyline Chili is amazing, and while you’re skeptical at first, after a couple of bites you realize it’s not bad — it’s just unapologetically Cincinnati.
(Except it really is good stuff if you have any sort of tastebuds and ability to not judge a book by its cover).
On the Field
Numbers matter, too. Now, we do this every week, but for those who do not know.
Sagarin is our favorite computer model in the country. It crunches the numbers, simulates hypothetical matchups and makes us feel smart.
Want to stump your friends on football knowledge and game predictions? Watch film study reviews and use Sagarin ratings over the AP Poll. Trust us, you’ll look brilliant, later.
Without further ado, let’s pull the hood off this midwestern minivan before toe meets leather on Saturday.
It’s Sagarin time, the closest thing you’ll get to a peek behind the curtain at Vegas’ point spread formula.
Iowa State ranks 28th in Sagarin’s model at 79.63 overall, while Cincinnati sits at 41st with a 75.57 rating.
That math means the Cyclones have about a four-point edge over the Bearcats on paper. But factor in home field — worth 5.14 points for the Bearcats — and the projection swings to Cincinnati by a hair, about a single point on Saturday.
Vegas tends to agree with the model. The Bearcats are slight favorites at (–1.5), with an over/under of (55.5) against Iowa State.
Translation: Vegas oddsmakers and insiders expect a competitive, maybe even wacky, game, which can truly swing either way based on a play or two late.
Ah, the classic Cincinnati sports fan’s type of game. God bless you, Reds and Bengals fans. The cardiac experience has to stop at some point, right?
Until Scott Satterfield wins a close game over a ranked opponent, we’ll keep rolling with the ‘Clones.
Keys to Victory
For Iowa State:
- Keep balance. The Cyclones’ offense has been steady because they can do both — throw when they want, run when they need.
- Stay cool. Nippert gets loud and weird. Avoid false starts, silly turnovers, and this looks manageable.
- Trust Campbell’s blueprint. He’s built them into contenders; stick with what works.
For Cincinnati:
- Ride the crowd. Noon kickoff, conference stakes, home edge — the Bearcats need to weaponize Nippert.
- Win the trenches. If they push around Iowa State up front, they tilt the math their way.
- Don’t be conservative. Big plays will decide this one, not checkdowns.
The Call
So what gives? Iowa State has been the more consistent team, but Cincinnati has the right cocktail of home energy, defensive grit and “Skyline magic” to make this uncomfortable. This feels like a fight to the finish, with both teams trading haymakers.
The Cyclones might be unbeaten, but unbeaten teams have a way of running into banana peels on the road — especially in quirky settings like Nippert, where the crowd feels two feet away from the sideline. Still, Iowa State looks steadier, tougher, and more complete.
I really want to pick the upset here. Cincinnati deserves a special season, just like it had in 2020 and again in 2021.
However, I trust Matt Campbell down the stretch more than I do Scott Satterfield and it’s really not all that close.
I also love Rocco Becht, the battle-tested Cyclones quarterback and veteran leader.
If the Bearcats want to win this one, they better swing big early because you’re not going to play conservative and beat the Cyclones at their own game. just ask Iowa and even Kansas State.
I can see this game going in 10 different directions, but at the end of the day, Iowa State has shown me it can win in the clutch. Cincinnati is still a tad inconsistent.
Give me the Cyclones in a close one, although I don’t think I’ll be wagering on this game.
Prediction:
Iowa State 30, Cincinnati 27
OVER 55.5
The Cyclones keep the ethanol flowing and stay perfect, while Bearcats fans drown the sorrows of a tough week into Skyline, Graeter’s Ice Cream and even a few Little Kings.
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