DENTON, Texas — Welcome to Friday night college football: the setup is classic, the stakes are crisp, and the matchups deliver intrigue from coast to coast. As the Week 7 slate opens, three games demand attention: USF at North Texas, Rutgers at Washington, and Fresno State at Colorado State. With conference positioning, national pride, and surprising narratives on the line, each contest has its own flavor. We’ll lean on Sagarin’s subtraction model (plus a 4.99 home-field adjustment), Vegas lines, injury trends, and stylistic mismatches to break these down — and of course, make picks.
It’s Friday night of Week 7, before Saturday gets the eyes of the nation.
USF @ North Texas carries major Group of Five stakes for the final spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff, with the winner set up nicely for the AAC Championship game in December.
The Bulls have wins over Boise State and at Florida, with one of the most impressive GO5 resume’s in the country. Their lone loss is on the road to Top 5 ranked Miami, even if it was in blowout fashion.
Meanwhile, North Texas has quickly become a national media darling in its 5-0 start, despite not having the wins the Bulls do.
You know how this works by now. We preview the matchups, give you the power rating comparison, update key team injuries and make a final score prediction.
Sagarin is our trusted source for computer predictive metrics, so we’ll keep rolling with Jeff’s formula. You ready? Let’s get to it.
USF @ North Texas
- Line / O/U: North Texas –2.5, 68.5
- Sagarin: USF 73.48 (52nd), N. Texas 72.18 (61st)
- Adjusted (with 4.99 HFA to North Texas): North Texas effective = 72.18 + 4.99 = 77.17 → margin: 77.17 – 73.48 = 3.69 points in favor of North Texas.
Matchup Narrative & Keys
North Texas enters 5–0 overall and 1–0 in American Athletic Conference play, riding a wave of confidence and home momentum in Denton’s DATCU Stadium. Their balanced offensive attack — a mix of ground and aerial threats — has kept defenses off-balance thus far. The Mean Green have looked comfortable imposing tempo and exploiting midlevel defenses. The sellout crowd, fueled in part by UNT’s best start in decades, could add jump.
USF (4–1, 1–0 AAC) has already made statements — wins over Boise State and Florida showed they can swing with power programs. QB Byrum Brown has been the central piece: he leads USF in passing yardage and has added value as a runner. The Bulls average around 257 passing yards per game and 189 rushing yards per game, giving them a credible dual threat. Their defense, meanwhile, has been bend-but-don’t-break: they’ve allowed 21.5 points per game but often in chunks rather than steady pressure.
For USF to steal this, they must sustain drives, win the turnover battle, and make UNT one-dimensional. If North Texas can force USF into third-and-long or tilt the run game inside, they’ll get chances.
The Sagarin edge lies with UNT, though slight. With the betting line modestly favoring the Mean Green, the smart lean is home edge plus consistency.
Pick: North Texas 35, USF 32 (UNT -2.5 / ML)
Total: 67, UNDER 68.5
Rutgers @ Washington
- Line / O/U: Washington –10.5, 61.5
- Sagarin: Washington 81.67 (22nd), Rutgers 72.36 (59th)
- Adjusted (with 4.99 HFA to Washington): Washington effective = 81.67 + 4.99 = 86.66 → margin: 86.66 – 72.36 = 14.30 in favor of Washington
Matchup Narrative & Keys
This one is a coast-to-coast grind for Rutgers, crossing multiple time zones to land in Seattle’s Husky Stadium. That kind of travel is nontrivial — jet lag, adjusted routines, and acclimation can weigh, especially for a Big Ten squad far from home. Combine that with a hungry Washington team — battling in Big Ten play and looking to assert themselves — and you get a recipe for trouble for Rutgers.
Washington brings size, power, and home-field comfort. Their defense can clamp down, and they’ll look to inure Rutgers’ offense to their tempo and physicality. Rutgers does have weapons, though — their offense has shown flashes, particularly on medium-range passing and speed in space. If Rutgers can avoid early deficits and keep drives alive, they could make it competitive.
However, the Sagarin margin of over 14 points suggests Washington has the capacity to win big — line of scrimmage dominance, turnover margin, and depth favor the Huskies. The 10.5-point spread is steep but fair.
Pick: Washington 34, Rutgers 20 (Washington -10.5, ML)
Total: 54, UNDER 61.5
Fresno State @ Colorado State
- Line / O/U: Fresno –6.5, 48.5
- Sagarin: Fresno 67.02 (80th), CSU 56.83 (131st)
- Adjusted (with 4.99 HFA to Colorado State): CSU effective = 56.83 + 4.99 = 61.82 → margin: 67.02 – 61.82 = 5.20 in favor of Fresno State.
Matchup Narrative & Keys
Fresno State enters this one at 5–1 overall, 2–0 in Mountain West play. They’ve done their work, and now get a more manageable matchup — at least on paper — against Colorado State (1–4, 0–1 MWC). But nothing comes easy in the MWC, and altitude, crowd, and injuries may factor.
Per injury reports, Fresno is thin up front and at tight end. OT Brayden Walton is questionable, and TE Brock Lium is out. That could shave their guards’ ability to establish tempo in the trenches, especially early on. Colorado State is in distress: their defense has allowed chunk plays, their offense sputters at times, and some injuries — like DB Jayden Cortell and WR Stephon Daily (both out for the season) — weaken their depth.
If Fresno’s skill players like QB and receivers connect early, they should score enough. CSU will try to leverage home crowd, altitude, and desperation, but the Bulldogs have more firepower.
The Sagarin edge (~5.2) plus the spread align. We like Fresno to win by a moderate margin. Give us the Bulldogs by 10 after a hard-fought first half in Colorado Springs.
Pick: Fresno State 28, Colorado State 18 (Fresno State -6.5, ML)
Total: 46, UNDER 48.5
Final Word
Tonight’s trio of Friday games offers contrast. North Texas vs. USF is a high-wire act — a tossup where home edge gives UNT the nod. Rutgers vs. Washington scratches the “power vs. path” itch — Washington should win comfortably unless Rutgers pulls a surprise air raid OFF. Fresno State vs. Colorado State is your midmajor mismatch, but injuries make it less of a blowout than it might’ve been; Fresno still pulls away late.
If these games go as we see, the margins will be firm but not runaway, totals will hang just under or around the Vegas lines, and narratives will shift — possibly dramatically. Buckle up: the Friday night football slate has teeth tonight.
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College Football Viewing Guide, Week 7!
