Tuesday Night Trio: Liberty, South Alabama, and Western Kentucky Look to Defend Home Turf in Week 8
Week 8 of the 2025 college football season opens with a rare tripleheader of midweek action across Conference USA and the Sun Belt. Liberty hosts New Mexico State, South Alabama welcomes Arkansas State, and Western Kentucky returns home to face FIU. All three games carry modest national implications but serve as crucial litmus tests for programs trying to separate themselves from the middle tier of the Group of Five landscape.
Two matchups will air on ESPN platforms, with Liberty’s contest featured on CBS Sports Network. Vegas favors the home teams across the board: Liberty by 10.5, South Alabama by 7.5, and Western Kentucky by 9.5. The over/under totals range between 48.5 and 58.5, but trends and power ratings suggest a more conservative scoring outlook.
Using Jeff Sagarin’s ratings as a guide—plus a 4.63-point home-field adjustment—each home team projects to hold a measurable edge. The math, the market, and the matchups align closely, setting the stage for three likely home wins and a night dominated by disciplined defense rather than explosive scoring.
Liberty vs. New Mexico State
Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Line: Liberty –10.5 | O/U: 48.5
Sagarin: Liberty 111th (60.90), NMSU 164th (51.82)
By the Sagarin subtraction method, Liberty should be favored by roughly 13.7 points when factoring in home-field advantage. That’s slightly above the Vegas number, reinforcing the perception that the Flames should win comfortably in Lynchburg.
Liberty’s offense, led by quarterback Ethan Vasko, has been inconsistent but capable. The Flames have hovered around the national median in scoring and total offense this season, struggling with turnovers but showing improvement in third-down efficiency. Their defense, however, has been more reliable—particularly in red-zone situations and on early downs, where they’ve held opponents under four yards per play in several recent outings.
New Mexico State, meanwhile, enters as one of the lowest-rated FBS teams in 2025. The Aggies have struggled to establish offensive rhythm, ranking near the bottom nationally in passing efficiency and total yardage. Quarterback play has been erratic, and the defense has given up big plays through the air in nearly every game this season.
The betting total of 48.5 feels high considering both teams’ offensive inefficiencies. Liberty should control tempo and field position, limiting possessions for the Aggies. Expect the Flames to lean on their run game to grind out drives and keep their defense fresh.
Prediction: Liberty 27, New Mexico State 13
Pick: Liberty –10.5 | Under 48.5
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Line: South Alabama –7.5 | O/U: 58.5
Sagarin: South Alabama 110th (61.00), Arkansas State 122nd (58.53)
Sagarin’s numbers project South Alabama as a 7.1-point favorite when home advantage is added—almost a perfect match to the Vegas spread. In other words, this is likely to be the most competitive of the three Tuesday games.
The Jaguars have been inconsistent offensively, alternating between efficient, balanced outings and turnover-ridden struggles. Quarterback Gio Lopez has been steady in recent weeks, guiding an offense that averages around 29 points per game but has battled inconsistency on third downs. Defensively, South Alabama remains strong against the run but has shown vulnerability to explosive passing plays.
Arkansas State has improved marginally this season but still sits outside the top 100 nationally in defensive metrics. The Red Wolves allow roughly 475 yards per game and struggle in time-of-possession battles. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor has been a bright spot, throwing for over 1,200 yards and keeping his team competitive in several high-scoring affairs. However, their inability to get consistent stops makes them a risky pick on the road.
Midweek road trips often expose depth issues, and South Alabama’s physical front should wear down the Arkansas State defense by the second half. The total of 58.5 is ambitious for two offenses that have been streaky and two defenses that occasionally overachieve when given extra rest.
Prediction: South Alabama 24, Arkansas State 16
Pick: South Alabama –7.5 | Under 58.5
Western Kentucky vs. FIU
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Line: Western Kentucky –9.5 | O/U: 55.5
Sagarin: WKU 95th (64.10), FIU 153rd (52.82)
This is the most lopsided matchup of the night by every metric. Using Sagarin’s formula, Western Kentucky projects as a 15.9-point favorite at home—well above the Vegas line of 9.5.
The Hilltoppers’ offense continues to carry the torch for the program’s Air Raid reputation, averaging nearly 430 yards per game. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has thrown for over 1,500 yards on the season, and WKU ranks among the national leaders in explosive passing plays. Their defense isn’t elite but has been opportunistic, forcing takeaways and limiting opponents inside the red zone.
FIU has shown flashes of competitiveness but remains overmatched against stronger CUSA teams. The Panthers’ defense ranks near the bottom of the FBS in yards per play allowed, and their offense has yet to score more than 24 points against a team with a winning record. They’ll need near-perfect execution to hang within single digits on the road.
Historically, this series has been one-sided. WKU has outscored FIU 148–47 over the last three meetings, including a pair of blowouts in Bowling Green. Unless FIU can generate turnovers or hit big plays early, the pattern is unlikely to change.
Expect Western Kentucky to build an early lead and slow the pace down in the second half, keeping the total under but covering comfortably.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 31, FIU 17
Pick: Western Kentucky –9.5 | Under 55.5
Final Analysis
All three home favorites are well positioned to handle business. Liberty’s edge in both the metrics and matchup categories makes it the most confident pick of the night, while Western Kentucky’s offensive firepower should overwhelm FIU. South Alabama’s margin may be slimmer, but the Jaguars’ defensive consistency at home gives them the advantage.
| Game | Predicted Margin | Spread | Pick | Final Score | Total Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty vs. NMSU | 13.7 | –10.5 | Liberty | 27–13 | Under 48.5 |
| South Alabama vs. ARST | 7.1 | –7.5 | South Alabama | 24–16 | Under 58.5 |
| WKU vs. FIU | 15.9 | –9.5 | Western Kentucky | 31–17 | Under 55.5 |
Check Out All EasySportz College Football Content Here!
College Football Viewing Guide, Week 8
