MADISON — College football fans in the Badger State might need to double-check the streaming apps this Saturday, as Maryland (3–0) travels to face Wisconsin (2–1) in what is likely the Big Ten’s most unassuming matchup of Week 4 on Peacock.
Kickoff is set for noon Eastern, with the game available on the streaming app, a blessing for diehards and a mild inconvenience for anyone trying to find it. Radio listeners can tune into the Wisconsin or Maryland team networks on SiriusXM channel 85 for the Badgers and 372 for the Terps.
Ticket prices on SeatGeek and Vivid currently start in the $35 range for upper-level seats, making this a relatively painless midweek road trip for traveling fans or those who cannot afford the lofty Packers ticket prices at Lambeau and want to see football.
Coaching Matchup for Maryland vs. Wisconsin
The matchup pits Wisconsin’s veteran coaching staff against Maryland’s newer regime, with both teams trying to assert themselves in a conference that is struggling for depth. Wisconsin, led by Luke Fickell, is hoping to bounce back from a tough loss to Alabama, while Maryland’s coaches under Mike Locksley are still finding their footing and trying to stretch a 3–0 start into something that resembles relevance.
As is typical for the Big Ten, coaching adjustments could be the deciding factor in a game where neither team has consistently found success across the board just yet.
Sagarin Ratings Comparison
Sagarin has Wisconsin rated 39th nationally at 76.07, up from a preseason rating of 73.87, but down slightly from the preseason’s 35th place.
Maryland, on the other hand, sits at 76th with a 69.86 rating, roughly in line with their preseason 62.37.
Sagarin Ratings:
- Wisconsin: 76.07
- Maryland: 69.86
- Home-field advantage: +5.38 for Wisconsin
Step 1: Subtract Maryland’s rating from Wisconsin’s rating
76.07 – 69.86 = 6.21
Step 2: Add home-field advantage
6.21 + 5.38 = 11.59
Step 3: Compare to Vegas line
- Vegas has Wisconsin favored by -10.
- Sagarin model (including home-field) predicts Wisconsin favored by roughly 11.6 points.
Conclusion:
Sagarin slightly favors Wisconsin more than Vegas does. Vegas sees the Badgers as a 10-point favorite, while the ratings-based model suggests they could win by around 11–12 points. The numbers are fairly close, but Sagarin is giving Wisconsin a bit more credit, especially factoring in home-field advantage, with Jump Around blasting to begin the fourth quarter.
In other words, Wisconsin has been better but not great, while Maryland has been very mediocre but fortunate enough to avoid anyone actually threatening them. Throw in 5.38 points of home-field advantage for the Badgers, and Sagarin’s model tilts Wisconsin to win by roughly two touchdowns.
Offensive and Defensive Rankings
Wisconsin is holding opponents to just over 25 points per game but has struggled to generate big offensive numbers outside of Danny O’Neil keeping things moving at quarterback. Maryland, meanwhile, has scored at will against underwhelming competition but will face its first real defensive test of the season. Both teams rank in the middle of the Big Ten in yardage stats, with Wisconsin slightly ahead in rushing defense and Maryland posting modest passing efficiency numbers through Malik Washington.
Keys to the Game
For Wisconsin, don’t underestimate home-field advantage in Madison, even if the crowd is more invested in Packers talk than Badger football. Keep O’Neil upright and running the offense methodically, and lean on a Big Ten grind-it-out identity. Maryland must find a way to stretch the field against a defense used to controlling tempo. Washington will need to make some mid-range throws and rely on misdirection to keep Wisconsin honest.
Fanbase Perspective of Maryland and Wisconsin
Let’s be honest: neither fanbase is losing sleep over this game. Packers fans dominate Wisconsin’s sports landscape, and Ravens devotees keep Maryland realistic about priorities. Still, the occasional diehard who remembers that college football exists will enjoy this clash, especially since Maryland has largely played nobody to get to 3–0.
With Wisconsin favored (-10) and an over/under of 43.5, expect a classic Big Ten slugfest that likely won’t top anyone’s highlight reels, but could provide a sneaky betting angle. Maryland may cover, but Wisconsin should hold on for a narrow win. The Badgers’ home-field advantage, combined with Alabama game experience, gives them just enough edge to survive and send the Terps home wondering what real competition looks like.
Prediction:
Wisconsin 23, Maryland 20
Under 43.5 (barely) *do not bet this*
That’s all we have on this game. Check back Saturday to see if it makes our headlines page (doubtful). Alas, we’re on to Auburn, as we preview Jackson Arnold’s return to Norman.
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