TEMPE, AZ — The Arizona State Sun Devils (3-1) are set to host the TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) this Friday in a pivotal Week 5 showdown, with both teams entering the game undefeated and riding high on early-season momentum. Arizona State (3-1) looks to continue their strong start and shake off the sting of their lone loss, which came in a close contest against Mississippi State on the road.
TCU (3-0), meanwhile, has been dominant in its first three games, including impressive wins over North Carolina, Abilene Christian, and SMU. With the national spotlight on this Big 12 clash and Mountain America Stadium ready to rumble, the stage is set for a Friday night thriller, and both teams know that a victory could define the trajectory of their seasons.
The Sun Devils have shown resilience in 2025, with a balanced offense led by quarterback Sam Leavitt and a defense capable of making key stops at critical moments. Their previous win over Baylor in conference play demonstrated that they can handle high-pressure situations, with kicker Jesus Gomez delivering the game-winning points as the clock expired.
Arizona State’s offense combines a strong ground game with efficient passing, giving them versatility against opponents like TCU, who rely heavily on explosive plays through the air. Meanwhile, the defense has been opportunistic, capable of forcing turnovers and shutting down key scoring drives when needed. The combination of a solid home field, experienced coaching, and a team hungry to prove itself gives the Sun Devils a clear path to compete against one of the nation’s top undefeated squads.
TCU enters Tempe with confidence, having won all three of its 2025 games and shown an offense that can score in bunches. Quarterback Chandler Hoover has led the Horned Frogs with precision, connecting on deep shots downfield and keeping defenses off balance. TCU’s defensive unit has also been strong, limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities and forcing mistakes in crucial moments. However, traveling to Tempe presents unique challenges, from the desert climate to Arizona State’s energetic home crowd. The Horned Frogs will need to adjust quickly to the hostile environment, minimize errors, and execute their game plan against a team that is well-coached and disciplined in all three phases of the game.
Sagarin vs. Vegas: The Numbers
Using the Sagarin ratings, Arizona State is slightly favored over TCU. The Sun Devils are ranked 30th with a rating of 78.90, while the Horned Frogs sit at 36th with a rating of 77.45. Applying our Sagarin subtraction formula:
78.90 (ASU) – 77.45 (TCU) = 1.45 in favor of ASU.
Factoring in Arizona State’s home-field advantage of 5.25 points:
1.45 + 5.25 = 6.70 in favor of ASU.
Sagarin predicts a 6.7-point win for Arizona State. Comparatively, Vegas has Arizona State at -3.5 with an over/under of 54.5, indicating both the line and total expect a competitive contest. While the Sagarin model leans slightly more in favor of the Sun Devils, the matchup is close enough that execution on the field will determine the outcome.
Keys to Victory: Arizona State
- Control the Clock – Arizona State must establish a balanced attack to keep TCU’s high-octane offense off the field. Sustained drives using a mix of runs and short passes will limit possessions for Hoover and the Horned Frogs.
- Pressure the Quarterback – Consistent pressure on Chandler Hoover is vital. By disrupting timing and forcing hurried throws, the Sun Devils can create turnovers and shift momentum.
- Special Teams Execution – Kicking, punting, and field position will play a significant role. Jesus Gomez and the return units need to maximize opportunities and flip field position when the offense stalls.
Keys to Victory: TCU
- Exploit the Passing Game – TCU thrives through the air, and Hoover connecting with his receivers is the lifeblood of their offense. The Horned Frogs must stretch the field and attack Arizona State’s secondary early.
- Win the Turnover Battle – Generating turnovers is essential. The defense must create opportunities by intercepting passes and forcing fumbles, while the offense takes care of the ball.
- Adapt to the Environment – Playing on the road in Tempe requires mental toughness. TCU must manage noise, stay composed, and execute despite the hostile crowd and desert conditions.
The Final Verdict
Arizona State’s combination of home-field advantage, a balanced offensive attack, and opportunistic defense gives them a slight edge over TCU. While the Horned Frogs bring momentum and an undefeated record, the Sun Devils’ ability to control the clock and make key plays in critical moments should allow them to pull out a narrow victory. This game promises to be competitive, with both teams trading big plays and testing each other’s resolve.
These two teams are just so well-coached.
TCU and Arizona State have each been to the playoff in the last three seasons.
Prediction:
Arizona State 31, TCU 28
OVER 54.5
Expect a game where every possession matters, turnovers could swing momentum, and the final outcome may hinge on one or two key plays. Arizona State has the tools to win at home, but TCU’s high-powered offense ensures it won’t be easy.
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