SALT LAKE CITY — As Texas Tech and Utah prepare for their highly anticipated showdown this Saturday at noon Eastern on FOX, the Sagarin ratings are providing a fascinating lens through which to view the matchup. Both teams enter the game undefeated at 3-0 and are ranked in the AP Top 25, but the Sagarin numbers offer a more nuanced perspective. Utah sits at No. 25 with a rating of 80.56, while Texas Tech is just behind at No. 31 with a rating of 78.92. These rankings suggest a close contest, but when factoring in home-field advantage, the dynamics shift.
Sagarin Ratings Breakdown
Utah’s current rating of 80.56 marks a significant improvement from their preseason rating of 73.55. This 7.01-point jump reflects a strong start to the season, highlighted by commanding victories over UCLA, Cal Poly and Wyoming. The Utes’ offense, led by quarterback Devon Dampier, has been particularly impressive, averaging over 50 points per game.
Texas Tech has also shown notable progress, increasing their rating from 74.65 preseason to 78.92 in wins over Pine-Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State. The Red Raiders’ offense has been potent, with quarterback Behren Morton leading the charge. Their defense, however, has faced criticism for allowing significant yardage, which could be a point of concern against a high-scoring team like Utah.
Projected Spread According to Sagarin
Using Sagarin’s subtraction model, we subtract Texas Tech’s rating from Utah’s:
80.56 (Utah) – 78.92 (Texas Tech) = 1.64 in favor of the Utes.
Adding the 5.38 points for home-field advantage:
1.64 + 5.38 = 7.02 in favor of the Utes.
According to Sagarin, Utah should be favored by approximately 7 points. This is notably higher than the Vegas line, which has Utah favored by just 3 points. This discrepancy highlights the difference between Sagarin’s analytical approach and Vegas’s market-driven lines, which consider factors beyond just ratings, such as betting patterns and public perception.
However, the Sagarin model is as close as you’re gonna get to what the pro’s in the desert rely on for info.
Conclusion
While Sagarin’s numbers suggest a touchdown Utah victory, the actual game on Saturday will be decided on the field. Both teams have shown promise this season, and with the added element of home-field advantage, fans can expect a closely contested matchup. Whether you’re a Red Raider or a Ute, this game promises to be a thrilling chapter in the early Big 12 season.
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