EUGENE, Ore. — The rivalry once known as the Civil War has seen better days. For decades, the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers provided the Northwest with late November fireworks — conference titles on the line, pride at stake, and the knowledge that one neighbor was about to make holiday dinners deeply uncomfortable. Fast-forward to 2025, and the stakes have shifted.
Oregon (3-0) enters Saturday afternoon’s game at Autzen Stadium as a national contender with a quarterback who was once the crown jewel of UCLA’s recruiting class. Oregon State (0-3), meanwhile, is searching for footing after a rough September that included a trek to Texas Tech.
Needless to say, both programs deserve credit for keeping this rivalry alive, despite conference re-alignment and all that nonsense.
Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. Eastern (12 p.m. local time) on the Big Ten Network, because apparently nostalgia isn’t what it used to be. Radio broadcasts will air on SiriusXM channel 196 for Oregon and channel 975 for Oregon State. The setting is familiar — Autzen in the afternoon, crowd roaring, Duck mascot pushups aplenty — but the context is strange. This isn’t the Pac-12. There’s no Pac-12 anymore. Instead, it’s a Big Ten vs. Pac-2 matchup, the latest reminder that the sport’s tectonic plates have shifted for good.
If I had a nickel for every Big Ten team playing an in-state rivalry game against a Pac-2 foe this week, I’d have two nickels. Which isn’t a lot, but…
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, a UCLA transfer, has the Ducks’ offense humming and sits behind a top-five scoring attack nationally. On the other sideline, Maalik Murphy — who has already worn burnt orange at Texas and royal blue at Duke — is the latest transfer to try stabilizing the Beavers’ quarterback carousel after DJ Uiagalelei’s one-year stay from Clemson in 2023.
Oregon coach Dan Lanning is chasing more than just wins; he’s angling for style points in a national championship race that already looks wide open. Oregon State’s Trent Bray is chasing something more modest: his first victory as a head coach this season.
It’s Beavers and Ducks in a battle of aquatic superiority at the pond.
Put this one on Animal Planet!
Sagarin Says: Ducks By a Mile
The numbers aren’t subtle. Oregon began the year No. 3 in Jeff Sagarin’s ratings with a 95.62 mark and now sits at No. 1 with a 93.75 rating. The Ducks are in pole position even after a slight ratings dip, a testament to just how fluid the top of the sport remains in the NIL / portal era.
Oregon State, meanwhile, started the year 86th with a 59.79 rating and has plummeted to No. 110 despite improving slightly to 61.57. That’s the statistical equivalent of paddling against a current while the Ducks ride a jet ski.
Run the subtraction formula: 93.75 (Oregon) minus 61.57 (Oregon State) = Ducks by 32.18 on a neutral field. Add 5.38 points for Autzen’s edge, and the model spits out Oregon by 37.56. That’s not just a spread; that’s a dissertation on program inequality.
Vegas may set a lower number — oddsmakers like to keep bettors intrigued — but the math screams blowout and the casinos agree.
Vegas has the Ducks (-35.5) at time of writing on Thursday night, with an Over/Under set to (56.5).
Well, that’s quite intriguing, to say the least. Something’s gotta give here. The Beavers gave up 34 to Cal, 36 to Fresno State and 45 to Texas Tech. We like the Ducks to score on their old conference rival and score a lot.
Lanning can’t be too happy with only laying 34 on a bad Northwestern team and will look to iron out a few more kinks for Penn State next week.
Needless to say, despite the rivalry, jet lag and Super Bowl narrative working in the Beavers’ favor, this game is only a contest in writing.
Ducks by a billion.
Oregon Ducks
Record: 3-0
Coach: Dan Lanning
Quarterback: Dante Moore
Moore has been sharp through three weeks, averaging over 200 passing yards per game with a touchdown-to-interception ratio that keeps defensive coordinators awake. Oregon’s offense averages north of half a hundred points per game at 54.0, good for a top-five national ranking, and pairs it with a defense that has held opponents to 10 points per contest.
For the Ducks, this game is less about survival and more about control. Penn State looms next week in Happy Valley, and the coaching calculus is whether to empty the playbook against the Beavers or win comfortably enough to rest starters by the fourth quarter.
Keys to a Ducks blowout:
- Moore’s efficiency. Keep him upright, let him spread the ball, and the Ducks will stretch the field early.
- Defense dictating tempo. Force Murphy into third-and-long situations and Oregon can pin its ears back.
- No letdown. With Penn State looming, Oregon must stay sharp. A sleepy start could give Oregon State oxygen it doesn’t deserve.
Lanning’s reputation for running up scores isn’t undeserved. He’s not afraid to pile on late if it helps with rankings or Sagarin power ratings. Don’t expect him to pump the brakes just because the Beavers are drowning.
Oregon State Beavers
Record: 0-3
Coach: Trent Bray
Quarterback: Maalik Murphy
The Beavers are in transition — a familiar theme for a program that’s cycled through quarterbacks like rental cars. Murphy has the physical tools at 6-foot-5 with a strong arm, but the offense has sputtered, averaging just 18.7 points per game through three weeks. Defensively, the Beavers have been gouged for over 30 points a game (38.33), with a backbreaking road trip to Appalachian State still looming on the schedule.
Keys to keeping it close:
- Sustain drives. Oregon State must chew clock and keep Moore off the field. A run-heavy script with ball control is the only path.
- Limit turnovers. Murphy has to play clean. Extra possessions for Oregon will make this ugly fast.
- Special teams swing. A return touchdown, a blocked kick, or a trick play might be the Beavers’ only shot at momentum.
The Beavers don’t have the depth or firepower to trade blows with the Ducks. Their best hope is an ugly game where possessions are limited and Oregon looks ahead to Penn State.
Nostalgia Isn’t What It Used to Be
Once upon a time, this game closed the Pac-12 season with Rose Bowl implications. Think back to 2023: Washington vs. Washington State meant something in the Apple Cup, Utah was a wrecking ball in November, and the Civil War mattered on a national scale. That was just two years ago. Now, Oregon State drags into Autzen winless, and the game is on Big Ten Network — not ABC primetime, not FOX’s “Big Noon Kickoff.” Just BTN, a reminder that realignment has no sense of poetry.
Fans still care. Alumni still bark across backyards. But the national stage has shifted, and this rivalry has been downsized to a regional subplot in Oregon’s bigger chase for a playoff berth.
The Intangibles
Both teams are traveling back from long trips — Oregon from Evanston, Oregon State from Lubbock — but the Ducks’ depth makes jet lag little more than an inconvenience. Oregon State, on the other hand, might feel it late in the game, when conditioning and depth begin to matter most.
There’s also the question of focus. Does Oregon look ahead to Penn State? If so, can Oregon State steal a quarter or two before the Ducks pull away? It’s the only realistic way this stays interesting.
What Will Happen
There’s no polite way to spin this: Oregon is a playoff contender, Oregon State is rebuilding. The numbers, the matchups, the eye test — everything leans green and yellow. The Beavers may hang around for a quarter, maybe two, if Murphy finds rhythm and the Ducks are sluggish. But over four quarters, Oregon’s firepower and Lanning’s penchant for statement wins will overwhelm.
Prediction:
Oregon 52, Oregon State 13
Over 56.5 (with ease) *bet this*
The Ducks cover the Sagarin projection and then some, keep their No. 1 ranking intact, and roll into Happy Valley unbeaten. For the Beavers, the best consolation is nostalgia: remembering when this game actually had stakes beyond survival.
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