LAWRENCE, Kan. — The Cincinnati Bearcats (2–1) visit the Kansas Jayhawks (3–1) Saturday in a Big 12 game with conference implications and a chance for one program to rise.
The Jayhawks, entering their Big 12 opener at home, have looked steady in 2025, combining solid rushing and opportunistic defense. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has scored points in bunches — 40.3 points per game — but must prove it can win in hostile territory against a league foe. This contest carries the kind of tension that makes fans forget about weekend chores and reminds everyone why they bet on college football.
While this game may slip under the radar on a loaded Week 5 slate, it does carry heavy Big 12 implications. It may not be a Bengals vs. Chiefs AFC Championship game, but it certainly does matter.
Kansas has craftsmanship on its side. Its rushing offense, defensive efficiency, and home-field factor make it dangerous. But Cincinnati’s offense isn’t some charity case — quarterback Brendan Sorsby is putting up yardage, the Bearcats are balanced, and their Big 12 resume is just beginning. The road tests start now. If Cincinnati wants legitimacy, this is the kind of game to seize.
Sagarin vs. Vegas: The Numbers Game
In Sagarin, Kansas sits at 39th with a rating of 76.46, while Cincinnati is 48th at 74.20. Subtracting, we get:
76.46 – 74.20 = 2.26 in favor of the Jayawks.
Add 5.25 points for home-field advantage in Lawrence:
2.26 + 5.25 = 7.51 in favor of Kansas.
So, the Sagarin model gives Kansas a projected 7.5-point edge.
Vegas has Kansas at –4.5 with an over/under of 56.5, indicating the books expect a Kansas win, but see more scoring than a defensive slog. The model leans slightly more in favor of Kansas than Vegas does, but not by a huge margin — it suggests this could be competitive if Cincinnati’s offense stays hot.
Cincinnati’s Strengths & Keys
- Offensive balance and tempo
Cincinnati averages 254.7 passing yards and 183.7 rushing yards per game. That kind of two-headed offense forces defenses to defend everywhere. The Bearcats must lean into that strength, mixing runs and throws to keep Kansas off balance. - Explosive plays in the passing game
Sorsby’s arm has produced chunk plays. Cincinnati must take its shots early, especially against a Kansas secondary that can bend under pressure. Big completions will help turn drives into scores. - Take care of the football
Kansas’ defense has been opportunistic. Cincinnati cannot afford turnovers, especially in enemy territory. Protecting the ball, winning third downs, and converting red-zone chances will determine if they stay in this game late.
Kansas’ Keys to Victory
- Establish the run and wear down the defense
Kansas leads the league in rushing output (191.3 yards/game). If it can run effectively, it will force Cincinnati’s defense to load the box and open passing lanes. The Jayhawks’ ground game must be the foundation. - Stop the deep ball
Cincinnati’s vertical passing has been a strength. Kansas must limit big plays, keep cushion on receivers, and force Sorsby to beat them on shorter routes. - Control the clock and tempo
As the home team, Kansas can manage the game by keeping the ball on the ground, converting on third downs, and making Cincinnati’s offensive possessions shorter. Time of possession advantage will wear on the Bearcats.
The Final Verdict
Kansas gets the edge in rushing, depth, and home-field environment. Cincinnati’s offense is legit, and if Sorsby gets hot or Kansas breaks discipline, this could tighten in the fourth quarter. But in the end, Kansas’ balance and crowd energy will carry it.
Prediction:
Kansas 31, Cincinnati 24
UNDER 56.5
Expect a competitive, fun game that pushes toward the over/under line of 56.5. Kansas wins by a touchdown, but not before Cincinnati gives them a scare.
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