ATHENS, Ga. — Kirby Smart has been playing 4D chess all summer, and the first two weeks of Georgia’s season were nothing but pawns sacrificed for the bigger picture. While the rest of college football went nuts over Tennessee lighting up the scoreboard like it was a July Fourth Gatlinburg fireworks show, Smart rolled out Gunner Stockton, handed him a vanilla playbook, and said, “Son, just don’t burn the biscuits.” It wasn’t pretty, it wasn’t flashy, but it was intentional. Georgia / Tennessee week is here.
Georgia hammered Marshall 45–7, then slogged through Austin Peay 28–6 in a rain-delayed mess that looked more like a family reunion in ponchos than a football game. Stockton threw for a few yards, the running backs churned out steady gains, and the Bulldogs were never in danger of actually losing. But the offense? Bland as dry toast. And that’s exactly what Smart wanted.
Because here’s the thing: Kirby has had his eyes set on Knoxville since the schedule came out, which we saw at the Magill Society scrimmages over the summer. Smart wasn’t about to waste his best plays on Austin Peay, knowing the run game could get the job done. Now 28-6 may not have been the scoreline Smart had in mind this summer, but a rain-soaked day in Athens changed up the script quite a bit. A wonky kickoff time and a mid-game delay will do that to a team favored by 46 points.
Smart wasn’t about to give Tennessee’s defensive staff one extra frame of film to prepare for. Instead, he gave them nothing. Vanilla routes. Vanilla protections. Vanilla quarterback play. By the time the Dawgs left the field Saturday night, Tennessee was still left guessing. It’s not that Georgia looks bad—it’s that Tennessee has no earthly idea what’s coming in Neyland Stadium.
Could Georgia really be that bad in the passing game? It’s certainly possible, but don’t count your chickens before they hatch, Bulldog doubters. History shows this is not the game where Georgia will fall off, if you fancy that kind of thing.
Oddsmakers have noticed the public skepticism on the Dawgs, taking advantage of Tennessee wagers leading up to Saturday. Georgia opened as an 8.5-point favorite against Tennessee, but that number has sunk to 3.5. Folks are acting like Georgia forgot how to play football. Truth is, it’s Tennessee who looks shiny out the gate. The Vols cooked Syracuse in Atlanta, then ran up 72 points on ETSU like it was a glorified scrimmage at Farragut High School. Ironically, it’s not the Big Orange faithful that are buzzing, as they often do on the interwebs. This week, it’s outside fanbases discussing this game which are jotting down a Georgia upset. Meanwhile, Vol fans seem to be taking the conservative approach, like their neighbors down I-75 often do in these types of games.
Gamblers are tilting toward Rocky Top. Meanwhile, Georgia kept the training wheels on, coasted through its cupcakes, and stayed healthy. That’s not weakness—that’s strategy.
Georgia looked like its usual self against Marshall. Then, the Dawgs stumbled through an ugly first half of football on Saturday and all hell broke loose. Headlines of “Georgia might be washed,” and “Kirby can’t develop a quarterback” started to appear on timelines across the South.
Well, Georgia hasn’t lost to Tennessee since 2016 and hasn’t lost a home game since 2019, an overtime defeat to South Carolina being its lone loss in Sanford Stadium since Smart’s first season.
Sure, this game is in Knoxville, but Smart took one of his weaker rebuilding teams to an SEC Championship last year and won the damn thing.
Georgia will always have a strong run game and a stout defensive front under Smart. The Dawgs possess the talent to cover Tennessee man to man and stack the box, shutting down Heupel’s explosive play-calling ability.
While this game won’t exactly be a blowout, it’s hard to bet against King Kirby.
Smart’s not new to this. Remember Jake Fromm? He wasn’t flashy, but Smart rolled with him, and it worked. Stetson Bennett? Written off more times than a rusted-out used car, and all he did was win two national titles. Now fans are pounding the table for Ryan Puglisi to start, saying Stockton is too cautious. Same song, different verse. Georgia fans love the backup quarterback like Southerners love sweet tea. But if history tells us anything, it’s the overlooked guy—the one everybody doubts—who ends up leading the Dawgs to glory.
And let’s not forget the history between Smart and Tennessee. He’s owned the Vols. The only time he’s lost was back in Year One, on a miracle Hail Mary. Since then? Georgia has treated Tennessee like the little brother who thinks he’s ready to fight, only to get shoved right back into the kiddie pool.
So no, you can’t sit here and guarantee Georgia will roll into Neyland and walk out winners. But you can trust the method. Smart’s method. He’s proven time and time again that he knows when to hold cards close and when to drop the hammer. If there’s one program he’s always had a read on, it’s Tennessee.
Call it 4D chess. Call it rope-a-dope. Call it whatever you want. But don’t call Kirby Smart unprepared. He’s been setting this game up since June, and Saturday afternoon we’ll find out just how deep this Dawg’s playbook runs.
Because here’s the truth: Georgia doesn’t suck. Georgia doesn’t struggle. Georgia just doesn’t care about impressing anyone in September. Kirby Smart’s playing the long game, and Tennessee’s about to find out what it feels like to be the piece on his chessboard, albeit this ain’t the first rodeo of it.
Sure, Tennessee can win this football game and make all this writing have me looking like a moron.
But…
It’s hard to bet against the Dawgs until the Vols finally knock them off.
Some things, like James Franklin in a big game, are best left following the trends. Bet against James Franklin in a big game until he proves you wrong.
Oh, and Clemson too. We’ve finally learned our lesson over here. Sorry, Brian Kelly!
Anyways, it’s the Dawgs and Vols at 3:30 Saturday up on Rocky Top.
Kirby Smart wants you to doubt his Dawgs, but we’ve learned a thing or two because we’ve seen a thing or two.
The Gunner Stockton Game, Saturday, in Neyland Stadium.
(Bookmark this post for Old Takes Exposed if you think otherwise, but come ready with a Tennessee +3.5 slip).
Make sure to check back with EasySportz for our score predictions later in the week.
Happy game week, folks. The most important week the Smoky Mountains will see until the Fourth of July.
It’s Georgia weekend. It’s the Bristol Night Race. All that’s missing is a surprise concert from Morgan Wallen at the Sevierville Buc-ee’s.
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