ATLANTA — As we creep into Week 4 of the 2025 college football season, the latest Sagarin Ratings have added some interesting spice to the regular preseason schadenfreude. Storylines from Week 3 — especially wins by Georgia, Georgia Tech, and Texas A&M — and misfires from Clemson, South Carolina, and USF’s fall back to Earth, have stirred the ratings pot. Comparing Sagarin’s power-numbers with the updated AP Poll reveals where perception and performance are parting ways. It’s College Football Week 4!
Sagarin vs. AP: The Big Picture
The Sagarin Ratings measure more than just wins and losses — strength of schedule, roster capability, margins, and recent results matter.
Sagarin may not be perfect, but it’s as close as the public will get to Vegas’ secret Crabby Patty formula. Similar to Josh Pate’s JP Poll, we preface this by saying, these are ratings, not rankings.
When you see Notre Dame appear at No. 5 and receive a jumpscare, don’t be too concerned. The Irish are still a damn good football team and the model knows it. Wins and losses, particularly in on campus games, do not reflect the basis of the model.
If Notre Dame were to run it back against Miami and A&M, the Irish would be favored on a neutral field tomorrow.
The Fighting Irish certainly have their fair share of issues, but this is measuring team quality and firepower, not true performance.
What does this mean? Well, Notre Dame has its work cut out to stack up wins and sneak back into the championship picture. However, the Irish will be favored in every game remaining on their schedule.
2015 Ohio State missed the CFP by losing late in the season to Michigan State and narrowly missing the Big Ten Championship Game. The Buckeyes would go on to steamroll a ranked Michigan on the road and Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.
By power rating, the Buckeyes were a Top 4 team, arguably No. 2 behind national champion Alabama. However, they had no path to the playoff thanks to a wonky year, where the Spartans won the conference outright. In a 12-team era, 2015 Ohio State looks a lot like last year’s team, which remained Top 5 in Sagarin, despite falling to No. 8 in the 12-team playoff. Those Buckeyes ended the season as national champions, by the way.
Now, is 2025 Notre Dame as good as a defending national champion 2015 Ohio State, with Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield and Joey Bosa on defense?
Probably not, but it does give the Irish some hope. Win the USC game in South Bend, avoid an upset at Arkansas and you’re back in the mix.
Yes, really.
Alright, so with that out of the way, let’s get back to the basics here.
The AP Poll, by contrast, reflects human judgment, buzz, momentum, and sometimes nostalgic inertia. When both lines up, you feel good. When they diverge, you get chaos (which is way more fun to write about).
In the AP Poll entering Week 4, Ohio State sits at No. 1, followed by Penn State at No. 2, LSU at No. 3, Miami at No. 4, and Georgia at No. 5. Teams like Texas A&M and Georgia Tech have surged; Clemson, South Carolina, and USF have dropped. The SEC still dominates with 11 teams in the Top 25.
Sagarin, in its most recent published snapshot, still has Ohio State and Penn State among the very top teams. Georgia, though, sits a bit lower in Sagarin than it does in the AP ranking; while the AP has Georgia at No. 5, Sagarin places the Bulldogs somewhat further down at 9, due to relative strength of schedule and margin of victory.
Texas A&M’s big win over Notre Dame in Week 3 earns them strong upward movement in both polls — but especially the AP. Georgia Tech’s upset of Clemson also shows up well in the AP, but barely moves the Sagarin needle, as the Jackets were already noticed: the computer model expected the Jackets to do what they did on Saturday at home.
On the flip side, Clemson’s loss to Georgia Tech hurts more in raw AP perception than it does Sagarin: being upset by an unranked or lower-ranked opponent tends to drag you down in human polls faster. South Carolina’s shellacking by Vanderbilt have shifted their Sagarin ratings downward more than AP might reflect (AP tends to be slow to erase reputation).
Notable Shifts & Comparing Movers
- Georgia: AP rises them to No. 5 after an overtime comeback win (versus Tennessee); Sagarin lags them slightly behind, reflecting a tougher schedule ahead and not quite enough “big margin” in recent games to vault higher.
- LSU: In the AP Poll, LSU holds at No. 3. In Sagarin, they’re slightly lower at 9 — part of that is because their margins (especially in the recent win over Florida) don’t dominate others – the model rewards blowouts and consistent high performance.
- Texas A&M: Big winner of the week. In AP they jump into the Top 10 (No. 10). In Sagarin, they also improve — their win over a strong opponent pushes their rating up to 10.
- Georgia Tech: Their upset of Clemson does major work. AP pulls them into the rankings (No. 18). Sagarin also shows them gaining slight ground.
- Clemson: Drops out of AP Top 25 after losing to Georgia Tech. In Sagarin, the hit is lighter because it’s not a bad loss, it’s just a second loss that affects their strength-of-schedule and “quality win” differential in September.
- South Carolina: Getting thumped by Vanderbilt drags them down. In AP they lose ranking; in Sagarin they fall further, again penalized for lack of performance in that game.
- USF: Their earlier buzz takes a hit after the blowout loss. AP reflects the drop; Sagarin slightly penalizes USF for allowing a big discrepancy in performance, although the model did not like the Bulls to begin with.
Other teams like Vanderbilt climb nicely in AP; Sagarin similarly gives them credit, though the jump is more muted because the model waits to see if the win is a fluke or something sustainable.
Why The Discrepancies Matter
Sagarin is reminding us that winning ugly still counts less than winning well. If you edge a weak opponent, or allow a weak opponent to stay within reach until garbage time, the computer model punishes you. AP gives you more time — reputation, narrative, “did you look good?,” etc. But those narratives get harder to maintain if computer metrics say “meh.”
Also, teams that upset high-profile opponents (Vandy over SC) get double credit in Sagarin once the dust settles. So those wins aren’t just for highlight reels; they shift mathematical expectation.
Looking Ahead – Key Matchups in Week 4
Week 4 promises some marquee games that could force further realignment between Sagarin and AP perception:
- Texas Tech at Utah — The outcome will likely shift perceptions of the Big 12’s depth. If Texas Tech wins big, Sagarin might rate them far ahead of AP until AP catches up.
- Illinois vs. Indiana — Both are inside or near the Top 25; this could shuffle middle-tier rankings in both models.
- Auburn vs. Oklahoma — A ranked matchup with playoff implications if Auburn holds its own. A win here helps both in AP narrative and Sagarin’s strength of schedule.
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Looking Back on Vandy Football
