COLUMBUS, Ohio — No. 1 Texas faces No. 3 Ohio State in a blockbuster season opener Saturday at noon ET in Ohio Stadium, where the Longhorns seek redemption after last year’s 28-14 Cotton Bowl loss to the Buckeyes in the College Football Playoff semifinals. Arch Manning starts at quarterback for Texas, bringing limited but promising experience, while Ohio State turns to Julian Sayin in his debut as a full-time starter following Will Howard’s departure. Vegas lines list the Buckeyes as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 47.5 points, but ESPN’s Football Power Index projects Texas as 0.7 points better on a neutral field, hinting at a razor-thin matchup.
This preview highlights five reasons Texas pulls off the road upset if the Longhorns play to their peak potential. Yes, we know it’s practically a toss-up game and that this one could go either way! However, it’s still considered an upset as of Friday afternoon!
EasySportz forms part of a series examining strengths for both teams — not an official prediction, but a spotlight on how Texas leverages its edges in talent, motivation and preparation to claim victory in Columbus.
Stay tuned for our upcoming article on five reasons the Buckeyes get it done!
Now, for the Longhorns piece…
*All My Exes Live in Texas Intensifies*
1. EXPERIENCE! Arch Manning Delivers Quarterback Superiority Through Experience + Buckeyes Lose Coordinators
Arch Manning steps into the spotlight with a clear edge over his counterpart. The redshirt sophomore has thrown 63 of 95 passes in college action, completing 66.3% for 718 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions across mop-up duties and two starts last season when Quinn Ewers sidelined with injury. Manning’s poise shines in high-stakes moments; he orchestrated a 75-yard touchdown drive against Georgia in a hostile environment, showcasing arm strength and decision-making that rank him as the Heisman Trophy favorite at +750 odds.
In contrast, Sayin has attempted just 12 passes as a freshman backup, lacking the reps Manning accumulated. Advanced metrics from Pro Football Focus grade Manning’s adjusted completion percentage at 75.4%, underscoring his accuracy under pressure. Texas exploits this disparity early, as Manning’s familiarity with Steve Sarkisian’s system allows the Longhorns to attack Ohio State’s secondary, which lost three starters to the NFL. If Manning protects the ball and hits explosive plays — he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt last year — Texas builds a lead that Sayin’s inexperience struggles to erase.
The Buckeyes also lost offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to the NFL and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Penn State in the offseason due to contract disputes.
2. Texas Boasts Superior Roster Talent From Elite Recruiting Haul
Texas enters with more blue-chip firepower after securing the No. 1 recruiting class in the offseason, per On3’s composite rankings. The Longhorns added five five-star prospects, including edge rusher Colin Simmons and wide receiver Ryan Wingo, bolstering a roster that already features 85 scholarship players rated four stars or higher — edging Ohio State’s 82. This talent infusion addresses last year’s Cotton Bowl weaknesses, where Texas managed only 3.4 yards per rush against the Buckeyes.
Analytics back Texas’ depth: DRatings preseason projections rank the SEC, Texas’ conference, as the top league with an average team rating of 20.8, ahead of the Big Ten’s 38.5. Sagarin ratings place Texas at No. 2 overall preseason, reflecting superior efficiency on both lines. The Longhorns’ front seven, led by All-American linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., who notched 8.5 sacks last season, overwhelms Ohio State’s rebuilt offensive line missing two starters. If Texas’ talent translates to dominance in the trenches — as seen in their 2024 average of 5.1 yards per carry — the Longhorns control the tempo and stifle the Buckeyes’ run game, paving the way for a statement win.
3. Revenge Factor Fuels Texas After Cotton Bowl Heartbreaker
Texas channels the sting of last year’s semifinal defeat, where Ohio State capitalized on a late strip-sack fumble return for a touchdown to seal the 28-14 victory. That loss, which denied the Longhorns a national title shot, lingers as motivation; players like safety Jahdae Barron have cited it in preseason interviews as a “bad taste” driving offseason workouts. Sarkisian referenced the game multiple times during fall camp, using film sessions to dissect missed opportunities, such as Texas’ 2-for-12 third-down conversions.
Historical data supports revenge narratives: Teams avenging playoff losses win 62% of rematches the following season, per ESPN Stats & Info. Texas’ 11-game road winning streak, the longest active in FBS, adds confidence. If the Longhorns convert emotion into execution — limiting penalties (they committed nine for 85 yards in the Cotton Bowl) and forcing turnovers from a young Ohio State offense — revenge propels them to victory in a raucous Horseshoe.
4. Julian Sayin’s Debut Under Bright Lights Hands Texas An Expected Psychological Edge
Sayin makes his first career start in the biggest spotlight imaginable, facing a Texas defense that ranked third nationally last year in points allowed (15.3 per game). The redshirt freshman impressed in limited action, but his 12 career attempts offer scant film for preparation. Ohio State insiders note Sayin’s mobility, but against Texas’ pass rush — which generated 42 sacks in 2024, led by Simmons’ 9.5 — inexperience could lead to costly mistakes.
Manning, by comparison, navigated SEC defenses last season with a 150.6 passer rating. Psychological edges matter: First-time starters in top-5 matchups commit turnovers in 58% of games, per advanced analytics. Texas pressures Sayin early, using blitz packages that forced three interceptions in last year’s Georgia upset. If the Longhorns capitalize on rookie jitters, they build an insurmountable mental advantage.
5. Steve Sarkisian’s Offseason Preparation Maximizes Potential of Offensive Genius to Exploit Buckeyes
Sarkisian thrives with extended prep time, as evidenced by Texas’ 34-24 upset of Alabama in Week 2 of 2023 and a near-miss 20-19 loss as heavy underdogs in Austin the year prior proved Sarkisian is not one to shy away from a challenge. The coach spent the offseason dissecting Ohio State’s schemes, incorporating new wrinkles like motion-heavy plays that exploit man coverage — Texas ranked top-10 in yards after catch last season at 6.2 per reception.
Preseason FPI gives Texas a 53.3% win probability, crediting Sarkisian’s play-calling efficiency (No. 4 nationally in success rate). With a full summer to scheme against new Buckeyes coordinators, Sarkisian unleashes Manning on deep shots to weapons. If Texas executes Sarkisian’s plan — converting 45% on third downs, up from 38% last year — the Longhorns outscheme Ohio State for the win.
Texas possesses the tools to conquer Columbus if stars align. A victory catapults the Longhorns toward another playoff run, but Ohio State looms as a formidable host. Kickoff approaches, and the nation watches.
One thing is for certain, this game is going to be on everyone’s TV come Saturday afternoon. We will wipe away the tears of Lee Corso’s final headgear pick appearance and get ready for a thrilling Saturday of football.
Unless this game is a true runaway on either end, the game can catapult one team, but still leaves the loser with everything left to play for the rest of the way.
However, it doesn’t get much better than a Top 5 opening matchup on a college campus.
It’s Texas and Ohio State. You’ve been waiting for it since that last firework shell exploded on the Fourth of July. Now, it’s finally here.
Let’s go!
For our Texas and Ohio State offseason previews, click here!
For all things EasySportz college football, click here!
