COLUMBUS, Ohio — No. 3 Ohio State hosts No. 1 Texas in a seismic season opener Saturday at noon ET in Ohio Stadium, where the Buckeyes defend their national title against the Longhorns in a rematch of last year’s 28-14 Cotton Bowl semifinal victory. Julian Sayin makes his first start at quarterback for Ohio State after Will Howard’s exit, while Texas counters with Arch Manning under center. Vegas lines peg the Buckeyes as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 47.5 points, and ESPN’s Football Power Index rates Ohio State at 20.2, just behind Texas’ 20.5 but with home-field tipping the scales. Sagarin preseason ratings slot Ohio State at No. 2 overall, ahead of Texas at No. 5, underscoring the Buckeyes’ edge in efficiency metrics.
This preview spotlights five reasons Ohio State triumphs at home if the Buckeyes unleash their full arsenal. It complements a series dissecting strengths for both squads — not an official forecast, but an exploration of how Ohio State harnesses its advantages in venue, drive, playmakers and leadership to secure the win.
Before we dive into the Buckeyes, we’ll preface this with our Texas article from a few moments ago. The Five reasons Texas wins post can be viewed here.
You ready? Strike up the band and dot that i in script Ohio. It’s time to talk Buckeyes!
1. Ohio State Capitalizes on Home-Field Dominance
Ohio State thrives in the Horseshoe, where 102,000 roaring fans create one of college football’s most intimidating atmospheres. You saw it last year in the first round of the College Football Playoff against Tennessee, the last time Ohio State put on a ‘Scarlet the Shoe’ game.
Now, let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way early here. In non-Michigan games, the Buckeyes have lost just once in Ohio Stadium since Ryan Day took over for the legendary Urban Meyer in Columbus.
A Week 2 loss to Oregon in 2021 with an upstart CJ Stroud under center is the lone loss of the Day era to non-Michigan teams at the Horshoe. It’s also the only non-conference loss of course.
Since Day took over for Ohio State, the Buckeyes have beaten Penn State, Notre Dame, Tennessee and even a Top 10 Indiana with ease at home.
The Buckeyes boast a 40-3 home record under Ryan Day, including a perfect 7-0 last season en route to the national championship. Two of those three losses came to Michigan and the other was a turnover-induced loss to a veteran Mario Cristobal team early in the season.
Advanced analytics quantify this edge: Home teams in top-5 clashes win 62% of the time over the past decade, per historical data, with an average advantage of 2.5 to 3 points in point-spread models.
DRatings preseason projections rank the Big Ten as the second-toughest conference with an average team rating of 38.5, and Ohio State’s home dominance amplifies that — the Buckeyes outscore opponents by an average of 28.4 points in Columbus since 2020. Texas, meanwhile, faces its first true road test in the SEC era, yes really. The Longhorns’ lone big road game last year came against in-state rival Texas A&M. Now, Texas faces the big stage at long last, with a Top 10 matchup to start us off.
Away teams struggle with a 48% win rate in non-conference Power Four matchups. If Ohio State leverages the crowd to force early Manning mistakes — Texas committed three turnovers in last year’s Cotton Bowl — the Buckeyes seize control and ride the momentum to victory.
2. Lingering Motivation Fuels Buckeyes Despite National Title Glory
Ohio State claimed the crown last season but carries unfinished business into 2025. The Buckeyes fell 30-24 to Michigan in their regular-season finale, costing them the Big Ten title and a mid-season loss to Oregon in Eugene capsized a perfect record, despite still advancing to the playoff. Those blemishes sting; Day emphasized in preseason camp that the team eyes a flawless 12-0 or 13-0 campaign to cement dominance. Players like Jeremiah Smith echoed this hunger, noting the loss fueled offseason gains in strength and scheme tweaks.
Data supports motivation’s impact: Defending champions with prior setbacks win 68% of openers the following year, often channeling frustration into explosive starts. Ohio State’s roster, reloaded with 82 four-star-or-higher talents per On3 rankings, pairs this drive with depth. If the Buckeyes convert that fire into crisp execution — averaging 42.6 points per game at home last year — they overwhelm a Texas squad still integrating new pieces, turning motivation into a decisive early-season statement.
3. Jeremiah Smith Emerges as Unstoppable Force
Jeremiah Smith demands attention, evolving into Ohio State’s alpha receiver after a record-shattering freshman campaign. The sophomore hauled in 76 receptions for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2024, averaging 17.3 yards per catch while breaking the FBS freshman receiving yardage record previously held by legends like Jalen Moreno-Cropper. His blend of size (6-3, 223 pounds) and speed torched defenses, earning unanimous All-American honors and positioning him as a Heisman frontrunner for non-quarterbacks.
Advanced metrics from Pro Football Focus grade Smith’s contested-catch win rate at 68%, tops among Power Four wideouts, and his yards after catch averaged 6.8 per reception. Facing a Texas secondary that lost two starters to the NFL and ranked 24th in pass efficiency allowed last season, Smith exploits mismatches. If Sayin connects on deep shots — Smith scored on throws of 40-plus yards seven times in 2024 — the Buckeyes stretch the field, creating lanes for a run game that averaged 5.2 yards per carry en route to the title.
Throw Jeremiah Smith the football and good things will happen. It’s really that simple.
4. Caleb Downs Anchors Elite Buckeyes Secondary
Caleb Downs fortifies Ohio State’s back end, transforming the unit into a turnover machine. The junior safety, a transfer from Alabama, racked up 81 tackles, 0.5 sacks, two interceptions and six pass deflections in 2024, earning unanimous All-American nods after a punt-return touchdown in the Indiana rout. His instincts shine in coverage, limiting quarterbacks to a 52.3% completion rate when targeted, per PFF.
Ohio State’s secondary ranked second nationally in passing yards allowed (162.4 per game) last year, forcing 18 interceptions while holding foes to 15.8 points per contest. Downs pairs with returning cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock, creating a no-fly zone against Manning’s arm. Texas’ offense, which turned the ball over 1.4 times per game in losses last season, faces vulnerability here. If Downs and company snag early picks — Ohio State boasts a +1.2 turnover margin in home openers under Day — the Buckeyes flip field position and suffocate the Longhorns’ rhythm.
5. Ryan Day’s Coaching Prowess and Experience Overmatch Sarkisian
Ryan Day outschemes counterparts in marquee spots, boasting a 70-10 record (.875 win percentage) at Ohio State, including 6-4 in bowls and a national title. Keep in mind, the Buckeyes have yet to miss a CFP / New Year’s Six Bowl under Day, so the 6-4 record is against top competition, too. There is no mediocrity in Columbus, after all.
Day excels in big-game openers, guiding the Buckeyes to wins over Notre Dame in 2022 (21-10 at home) and later in September of 2023 (17-14 on the road), plus dominant Big Ten road triumphs like the 38-7 dismantling of Michigan State in 2024. Day’s 8-7 mark against top-10 foes underscores his clutch play-calling, with offenses averaging 38.2 points in ranked matchups.
Complementing Day, wide receivers coach, turned offensive coordinator Brian Hartline, reloads talent seamlessly, developing NFL stars like Marvin Harrison Jr. and now elevating Smith and Carnell Tate — the group averaged 218.4 receiving yards per game last season. Steve Sarkisian counters with an 84-52 career mark (.618), including 4-5 in bowls and a 2-3 record as heavy underdogs in early-season clashes. While Sarkisian upset Alabama in 2023, his teams drop 58% of top-5 road games. If Day exploits Hartline’s mismatches and dials up pressure packages — Ohio State sacked opponents 3.1 times per game last year — the Buckeyes’ staff experience seals the deal.
Ohio State wields the weapons to repel Texas in Columbus if execution peaks. A win launches the Buckeyes toward another title chase, but the Longhorns pose a stern test. The Horseshoe awaits, and history beckons.
Ohio State beats Texas and can put the newly reloaded roster on cruise control until a road test at Illinois and Penn State comes calling in November.
Ohio State will not face the Michigan hump until Thanksgiving weekend, so there’s plenty of time to iron out the kinks if they can get by Texas.
Sure, all hope is not lost with a loss on Saturday, but a win puts the Buckeyes right back in the mix for another national championship run and time to grow.
Despite the widespread narrative Ryan Day can’t win big games, he is pretty damn good, after all. Oh and the Buckeyes don’t get blown out. Even in losses last season, Ohio State fell by a combined 7 points.
If the Buckeyes fall, it won’t be by much. This program bends, but it rarely breaks. Just look at 2011 for example. A sanctioned Buckeyes roster led by interim head coach Luke Fickell went 6-7. However, Ohio State followed it up with a 12-0 performance the next season and hasn’t looked back since.
In years Ohio State has been bowl eligible, they have made a BCS / New Year’s Six Bowl at minimum ever since Tattoo Gate. The lone outlier? That perfect 12-0 season in 2012 in Urban Meyer’s debut.
This game could swing either way off one or two plays. However, it’s not going to become a runaway. The roster and coaching talent each program possesses is just too strong for a blowout loss.
I lean towards Ohio State at home, but this is going to be a rock fight.
Give me the Buckeyes on a late field goal.
For our EasySportz staff picks for Week 1, click here!
